There's fun to be had from plotting the career path of a former-star-player-turned-manager, especially when it's so obvious what the ultimate ambition would be.

One of these is former Celtic and Scotland captain Scott Brown, who was in the headlines last week after meeting with St Johnstone to discuss their vacancy following the sacking of Craig Levein. In the end Brown decided to stay at Scottish Championship leaders Ayr United, rejecting what the McDiarmid Park side had to offer and leaving them to turn their attention elsewhere.

Brown has made no secret of the fact he would one day love to return to Celtic Park, where he made over 600 appearances and won 22 major honours as a player. In order to navigate his way from Ayr back to the East End of Glasgow, having already got a blot on his CV from an ill-fated spell at Fleetwood Town, he'll have to be very canny about every move he makes or doesn't make.

Much as it is for players, the career path for football managers is full of potentially treacherous missteps. Though there’s no concern over the possibility that, at any second, everything could be derailed by a career-changing injury, luck plays arguably a greater factor. Timing is absolutely everything. Even some of the very best have short shelf lives at each destination. To hit each stepping stone on the path to greatness, you need to navigate each of these without the ground disappearing from beneath you. Stay too long and your reputation is tarnished. Go too soon and the same could happen. Picking the wrong option for the right reasons is a common mistake, as bigger does not always mean better when considering if a new club is the best fit.

This must’ve played a significant role in Brown’s thinking when he said 'no thanks' to Saints. Looking only at recent history, rejecting St Johnstone to stay at Ayr United would appear to be a strange decision. After all, it’s been decades since the Somerset club finished above the Perth Saints in the Scottish league structure, and Ayr only became a full-time club a decade ago. There’s also the little matter of St Johnstone winning three trophies in the past 10 years and consistently finishing in the top six.

But at this point in time the two clubs do seem to be trending in different directions. St Johnstone have been treading water at the wrong end of the Premiership table, while Ayr have been quietly building themselves up with improvements on and off the park. Last season was a bit of a struggle, which led to Brown’s appointment, but their trajectory over recent campaigns has generally been pointing upward.

A good manager could easily go into McDiarmid Park and reverse the recent struggles, getting them back into top-six contention on a regular basis. But Brown wouldn’t be taking over with a full pre-season, which would hinder the ability to impart his own philosophy on the players and he wouldn’t be able to strengthen until January in a transfer window where it's notoriously difficult to recruit your way out of trouble. St Johnstone do have two of the better strikers in the top flight in last season’s survival-securing hero Adama Sidibeh and this campaign’s star man Benjamin Kimpioka. However, there isn’t a whole lot behind them. The midfield lacks creativity or options out wide, the defence is weak and neither goalkeeper has looked to be the required standard so far this term.

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There’s also uncertainty with new owner Adam Webb recently revealing a cancer diagnosis, while the recruitment of Gordon Marshall as goalkeeping coach after five months without one highlights the slapdash manner into which Saints have treated off-field footballing infrastructure over the past decade, with recruitment and scouting a long-standing bone of contention for managers.

Brown will know himself from last season how difficult it is to go into a club midway through a campaign and make the kind of changes required to succeed. He made Ayr better, but they were still in relegation trouble up until the final weeks.

All that being said, it’s still a gamble to turn down a top-flight gig to remain in the second tier, even if you can leverage it to get a contract extension. While Ayr did make a good start prior to his decision, their four consecutive victories to begin the league season came against Hamilton Accies (twice), who’ve just been promoted, while Raith Rovers and Airdrieonians have experienced dreadful starts to their respective Scottish Championship campaigns.

Leading goalscorer Anton Dowds was also recently ruled out for the rest of 2024/25 with an ACL tear. They did, however, get back to winning ways at the weekend with a 1-0 victory over Greenock Morton. And while it'll be interesting to see how Falkirk handle a test of their mettle following their first league defeat since the 2022/23 campaign, no other club in the second tier has demonstrated the kind of consistency that Ayr have so far this campaign.

There just wasn't enough upside for Brown to go. Inheriting a messy squad from Levein, it would've been more likely that Brown took them down than made any sort of success which significantly boosted his reputation.

If he gets relegated with St Johnstone he can never be manager of Celtic.

At Ayr he can become the first manager to take them into the top-flight since their 1977 relegation.

That wouldn't necessarily attract much interest at Celtic Park, as demand would be for someone of Brendan Rodgers' standing in football to replace the Northern Irishman when he goes, but it would perhaps move either Hibs or Aberdeen to bring back a former player. Then from there further success could one day lead to a call from Parkhead. 

Would that still be enough to pacify Celtic fans that he'd be the right man for the job?

Maybe not, but this is a club that gave Neil Lennon a job while he was presumably standing in the buff in the Hampden showers, so you never know.