For everyone who has any affection for the Commonwealth Games, hold those memories tight, because it is likely that we are seeing the beginning of the end of the event that has played such an important role in Scottish sport over almost 100 years.

It may seem overdramatic to suggest that the end of the Commonwealth Games is nigh. But following last week’s events, it is difficult to see any other outcome.  All that remains unclear is whether this demise will be sooner or later.

Last week, the Australian state of Victoria pulled out of hosting the 2026 Games.

The seriousness of this decision for the event cannot be overstated.

The 2026 edition is now left without a host and while a suitable alternative may yet be found, it is a monumental task to expect any city to begin cold with merely three years to go and host what is one of the biggest sporting events on the planet.

It was only 15 months ago that Victoria was confirmed as the host, but last week the Victoria state Premier, Dan Andrews, announced they were withdrawing because the cost had become “well and truly too much” to bear.

Originally, organisers estimated the event would cost around
A$2.6 billion (£1.4bn). But  Andrews said the figure had risen to more than A$6bn. That is an eye-watering amount and one that Andrews said cannot be justified.

And so the Games have been thrown into disarray both in the short and longer term.

The fact remains the Commonwealth Games have many positives, a lot of which I experienced first hand as an athlete who competed in three of them. The beauty of them is they are a multisport event which presents athletes and spectators alike with an opportunity that can be bettered only by the Olympic Games.

They provide a platform to athletes who, for most of the year, are largely anonymous; they are a valuable stepping stone towards the Olympics; they are one of the few sporting events that actively encourage athletes to express their political views and they are the exception in that para-athletes compete alongside able-bodied athletes. 

The problem, and one that seems almost impossible to overcome, is that they are a second-tier sporting event, but come with a top-tier price tag.

Already, the Games had become an event that basically alternated between Australia and the UK; in more than two decades, only the 2010 Games in Delhi were held outwith these two countries.

This, in itself, was not sustainable. It was obvious that, at some point, we were going to run out of British and Australian cities.

But now we are at a point whereby even Australia is unwilling to shoulder the burden of hosting this event which costs astronomical amounts but is producing smaller and smaller returns for the host.

It has long been established that the lasting legacy left by major sporting events is negligible. For all the joy the Commonwealth Games brings for the two weeks they are in full swing, the lasting effect on things such as participation figures is almost non-existent.

And so, with fewer and fewer of the world’s best athletes prioritising the Commonwealth Games, it is hard to see how they can have a future.

In the short term, the chance of the 2026 Games going ahead is probably 50/50.

If they do proceed, it will almost certainly not be based in one city; far more likely is that the sports are spread out over multiple cities – with Glasgow and Edinburgh said to be one possibility – or even countries. 

In pursuing a model like this, the essence of the Commonwealth Games will be lost, but it is better than scrapping them entirely.

This is only a short-term solution, though.

As we look ahead to 2030 and beyond, it is difficult to see the Commonwealth Games as a viable entity. As a sporting event, they are finding it increasingly hard to prove they are worth their place in what is an increasingly crowded sporting calendar.

The prognosis, then, can only be that the Commonwealth Games are now living on borrowed time.

A wider lesson should be learned from this, and that is that the entire mega sporting event model is broken.

We now live in a world whereby spending hundreds of millions, if not billions of pounds, on what is effectively a two-week sporting party is unfeasible. We cannot expect governments to shell out these huge amounts of money for limited benefit.

Which is undoubtedly why so many citizens of potential hosts are unwilling to lend their support to future bids, whether that be for Olympic Games, Commonwealth Games or anything else.

The next few weeks and months will tell us almost everything we need to know about what will happen to the 2026 Commonwealth Games.

The clock is ticking increasingly loudly and a solution, if there is one, must be found sooner rather than later.

But while the future of the 2026 event remains unclear, the longer-term future of the Commonwealth Games is more predictable. And it is not looking good.