FOR some time now I have been saying that international rugby has been a game of 23-a-side and the British and Irish Lion’ deserved victory over South Africa at the weekend proved it. The starting XV in international tests rarely finishes a match, and the use of replacements has become absolutely vital to the modern game, as was the case in the first Test.
As an old traditionalist I’d still prefer the version in which replacements only came on for injured players, but I have long since accepted that it is fairer to both players and coaches to be able to make changes for tactical as well as physical reasons. It also makes for fascinating viewing, as you can then judge exactly how well a replacement has fitted in.
My assertion last week that the Lions had more players on the bench capable of making an impact when they came on to the field proved to be correct on Saturday. The major disappointment was Hamish Watson failing to do too many “Hamish Watson things” (c. Andrew Cotter) when he came on for Tom Curry, and he was lucky not to be sin-binned, but up front where it really mattered, Ken Owens, Mako Vunipola and Kyle Sinckler turned the game in the Lions’ favour.
Owen Farrell replaced the under-performing Elliot Daly and showed his experience as well as scoring that vital penalty in the closing minutes. Warren Gatland did not put on his entire bench early doors but he didn’t need to as the brilliant Mario Itoje and the inspirational captain Alun Wyn Jones plus Courtney Lawes and the replacement props did the business up front to seal the victory.
It’s a sign of Gatland’s confidence in his men that he has gone for just three changes to the starting XV, and while I think Hamish Watson is a tad unlucky to be out of the 23, I really can’t disagree with Gatland’s selections. As long as Dan Biggar passes his concussion testing then it’s just about the best XV these Lions could produce.
Elliot Daly has paid the price for a poor game by his standards, and I expect Scotland’s Chris Harris to be better in defence and attack than Daly. Rory Sutherland was outshone by Vunipola but has kept his place on the bench and I expect him to make a big impact when he comes on. Same goes for Ali Price who will undoubtedly replace Connor Murray at some stage.
Intriguingly, South Africa have made just two voluntary changes, with the impressive Ox Nche out through injury. When you can put in World Cup winners such as Steven Kitshoff and Frans Malherbe you could hardly call the Boks’ front row makeshift.
Leicester's Jasper Wiese replacing Kwagga Smith at No.8 may be a much more telling change - I’m a big fan of Wiese who has progressed nicely into the starting XV, but he needs to watch his discipline as he was red-carded in February. All the Boks will have been warned about their discipline as it was the concession of penalties that ultimately cost them the first Test.
A lot will depend on the turf in the Cape Town Stadium. It was rubbish on Saturday, and the amount of players losing their footing was a sad indication of the state of the ground, not their lack of balance. It’s a wonderful stadium – incidentally, one where the Boks haven’t won a Test for seven years - but if you can’t give the players a solid surface then it’s not worth the candle.
Last week I wrote: “For what it’s worth I am betting on the Lions to win, but will not be surprised if the Boks triumph in the second Test to set up the clash of the ages.”
I see no reason to change that view, as there is nothing more dangerous than a wounded Springbok. For all their smiles and the sporting way in which they accepted defeat, you could see the disappointment on the faces of players and coaches alike.
If there’s any international side which can bounce back from defeat it’s South Africa. Remember how they came back from agonising defeat by New Zealand in their first match in the 2019 World Cup to then go unbeaten all the way to clinching the trophy against England, the Boks becoming the first team to win the title after losing a match in the pool stage.
That bouncebackability and the real possibility of a series loss might just inspire South Africa to new heights. I would not be surprised if the Lions again use their superior bench to good effect, and again it will be a tight game, but the World Champions might just have the edge this time, and what a third Test that would set up.
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