CELTIC'S Europa League campaign will get under way on Thursday night, with Neil Lennon's side being drawn against Swedish champions AIK Stockholm.
While AIK finished top of the Allsvenskan last season, things haven't been quite as straightforward this time around. The Swedish domestic season runs over the course of a calendar year and at the 20-game mark AIK are sitting in third place, four points behind current leaders Djurgarden.
READ MORE: Swedish football expert tells Celtic fans what to expect from AIK
Ghanaian midfielder Adu will need to be tightly marked during the contest, and is composed with the ball at his feet. Over 90% of his passes find their man, and most of AIK's best play in the middle goes through the 28-year-old. Hardly a surprise, when you discover that Adu only gives the ball away around six times per 90 minutes played. Restricting Adu whenever the opportunity arises is a must for Neil Lennon's side, as the midfielder has the quality to pull the strings from the base of AIK's midfield trio.
Celtic supporters will likely be familiar with Larsson from his time at Sunderland, and it's fair to say the 34-year-old is enjoying something of a renaissance back in his homeland. Larsson's passing stats aren't quite as impressive as Adu's, but this is because of their nature: Larsson is generally playing far riskier passes that have a greater reward when they come off.
The Swedish internationalist is averaging a goal every five games this season in all competitions, and racks up an assist every four games on average. Larsson manages 1.42 shot assists per match but with age catching up with him, is not as mobile as he once was. While their is no doubting Larsson's technical ability, his lack of pace can be exploited defensively by Lennon by assigning one of Celtic's fitter midfielders, such as Callum McGregor, to man-mark him when Celtic are out of possession. By restricting the space that Larsson can operate in, Celtic can ensure that the one-time Arsenal man has a limited say in Thursday night's proceedings.
READ MORE: Celtic v AIK Stockholm | TV times, kick-off, odds and team news
While Goitom has generally impressed for AIK - the veteran striker picked up 12 league goals last season - the forward is another player, like Larsson, who is starting to feel his age. What's encouraging for Celtic supporters is that the average number of goals and shots that the Eritrean international averages has declined compared to last season, and his shot accuracy has dropped from 45% to 31% over the last year.
Having said that, though, there is no doubt that Goitom is far from finished. Around 63% of Goitom's dribbles are successful; the fifth-best rate of any player in the Swedish top flight. Tarik Elyounessi's ban has come at a fortunate time for Celtic - the Norwegian has been ruled out of the first leg through suspension - but Lennon will still need to be wary of the forward when he returns for the second leg. The 31-year-old has 10 goals in 19 league appearances and has been a regular match-winner for AIK so far this season.
Roden was also keen to point out that AIK can be caught out on the counter, and the data suggests that this is very much the case. Lennon places a lot of faith in his side's ability to make the most of attacking transitions and counter-attack at pace, and AIK struggle in this regard. AIK have a Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA) of 13.14, which means that each time they lose the ball, the opposition generally play 13 successful passes before the Swedish side win it back. This relatively high PPDA - Celtic's PPDA, by way of comparison, is 7.92 - implies that AIK do not go chasing the ball once they lose it and struggle to win it back quickly. If Celtic can counter effectively, they could catch AIK unawares.
It's a difficult tie for Celtic, but one they should still have enough about them to successfully navigate. AIK have a few players of quality that can hurt Celtic if Lennon's side are not adequately prepared for the challenge but so long as Celtic nullify their threat effectively, then they should be able to progress without too much hassle. Celtic have the better players - so long as they're used correctly, Lennon shouldn't have too much to worry about.
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