CELTIC’S spot in the third round of qualifiers for the Champions League was secured following the Scottish champions’ 2-0 win over Nomme Kalju on Tuesday night. The club’s progression was rarely in doubt after Neil Lennon’s side battered their Estonian opponents 5-0 at Parkhead in the first leg of the tie, and now Romanian champions CFR Cluj await in the next round.
Cluj’s route through the preliminary rounds of Europe’s top club competition has been less straightforward, but Dan Petrescu’s team knocked out Israel’s Maccabi Tel Aviv 3-2 on aggregate on Tuesday night to tee up an encounter against Celtic. The Romanians will surely benefit from the fact that the Romanian domestic campaign has already begun and between the league, the Romanian Super Cup and the Champions League qualifiers, Cluj will already have 10 competitive games under their belts by the time they host Celtic.
It’s around this stage of the competition where upcoming fixtures can no longer be considered as guaranteed wins and although Cluj have failed to perform in Europe over the last few seasons, the Romanian champions have some pedigree about them and cannot be taken lightly.
READ MORE: CFR Cluj and Maccabi Tel Aviv: Celtic's potential opponents profiled
When we dig into the numbers behind Cluj’s title-winning 2018/19 campaign, there are a few things that jump out immediately. First off, the Romanians play a very reactive brand of football - despite enjoying one of the biggest budgets in Romania and a playing squad far superior to most others in the division.
Cluj averaged just 50.6% possession in domestic matches last season, which is a remarkably low figure for a team that finished the season as champions. Celtic, for example, averaged 69.8% possession in the Premiership last season. Even Hearts - who aren’t exactly the most possession-heavy side in the Scottish top flight - averaged 50% during the 2018/19 season.
Cluj’s title success was built on a solid defence, and Celtic could find it difficult to break down their Romanian opponents when the two sides meet. Cluj conceded just 20 goals in 36 league games last season on their way to the title - 14 fewer than the next-best defence - although Petrescu’s side can perhaps consider themselves a little fortunate in this regard.
While Cluj only conceded 20 goals, the club’s expected goals against (xGA) was calculated to be 32.1 for the 2018/19 season. This implies that the defence conceded 12 goals fewer than they reasonably should have, and this should encourage Celtic fans. The data suggests that teams were getting chances against Cluj; they simply weren’t taking them. The number of shots that Cluj conceded per game last season backs up this conclusion: the Romanian champions were hitting about 13 per game last season, but giving away around 11 at the other end.
A further look at Cluj’s passing stats from last season should give Celtic supporters further cause to be optimistic. While Celtic’s approach last season was, for the most part, to dominate the ball and control games, Cluj’s matches were generally much more open affairs. And while Celtic are confident and composed on the ball, Cluj are not as effective at retaining possession or using the ball particularly efficiently.
Cluj only hit around 400 passes per game last season - some 200 fewer than Celtic were averaging - and did so with a low success rate, relatively speaking. Around one in five Cluj passes were misplaced last season and, as the graphic above shows, Celtic lead the way in nearly every passing metric when compared to the Romanian champions.
Celtic hit far more passes into the final third and slightly more smart passes - a pass which moves the ball beyond two opposition players - and do both more accurately than Cluj. This could prove crucial in the European double-header; as we all know, these early qualifying ties can often come down to one moment of brilliant incision and the numbers suggest that Celtic are far more likely to produce these than Petrescu’s team. Clever passers of the ball like Callum McGregor, Ryan Christie and Scott Brown could ultimately make the difference.
READ MORE: Champions League qualification will show the world what Celtic are made of, says Christopher Jullien
One area where Cluj have the edge, however, is in their ability to play long balls. This is something that Celtic fans should rightly be worried about: in the first two rounds, Celtic have looked a little vulnerable on the break and were caught out a few times by hopeful balls forward by Sarajevo and, to a lesser extent, Nomme Kalju. Just over 10% of the total passes that Cluj play are long balls forward, and they’re generally successful; over 60% of them find their intended target.
What this all means is that Celtic will be facing a well-drilled, organised opponent in the next round of qualifying but chances should still present themselves to Lennon’s side. Controlling the ball and starving Cluj of possession should be the Northern Irishman’s priority going into the game, although Celtic will still need to be wary of the Romanians’ threat from long balls forward. Celtic should have enough, defensively speaking, to handle Cluj’s attackers and at the other end should be well-equipped to fashion opportunities of their own.
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