BEARING in mind what has just occurred in Liverpool and Amsterdam, it could sound audacious to say with certainty that Manchester City will secure their second consecutive Premier League title tomorrow. But they will.
This is as much a reflection on their opponents, Brighton & Hove Albion, as on City.
Not only do 59 points separate the two teams, Brighton have scored goals this season at a rate of less than one per match. Given that the last time City failed to score in the league was in early December at Chelsea, it seems inconceivable that Pep Guardiola’s side will not score against Brighton. And Albion will be unable to reply.
Upsets can happen, of course, City had a five-day spell before and after Christmas when they lost at home to Crystal Palace and then at Leicester.
Guardiola’s team then won eight in a row across three competitions scoring 33 times. That’s what is know as a reaction.
There followed an odd 2-1 loss at Newcastle – City having a goal chalked off when 1-0 up – and since then they have been back to relentless.
Much of Guardiola’s tactical style stems from a numbers game – expanding the pitch, utilising the goalkeeper as a player, trying to lure the opposition into leaving his team a man up in midfield – and the numbers keep on coming: City go to Brighton on a run of 13 consecutive league victories, featuring a staggering 10 clean sheets. The last goal City conceded was five games ago at Palace.
When those figures are assessed, the notion of them losing to Brighton becomes just that, a notion.
Another relevant number is that Chris Hughton’s team have won twice this year in the league. So a third Seagulls’ victory would be the most astounding result since, well, Wednesday.
That is incorrect. Were Brighton to beat City, it would rank alongside the greatest upsets, although no-one will say this (a) out of courtesy to Hughton and (b) because it suits none of those involved.
Liverpool, for example, can still win a first Premier League title, a first championship since 1990. They host Wolves at Anfield, which on paper is a considerably more difficult task than City’s on the south coast.
Jurgen Klopp was respectful, understandably, of Wolves, who knocked Liverpool out of the FA Cup. The Reds manager was the same towards Brighton of whom he said yesterday: “What I can I say? It's their last home game in the Premier League season. They know now they are going to have another one next year for sure, and how I know this team, they are full of joy for football, so they will try everything.”
Describing Brighton as “full of joy” will come as a shock to many of their supporters.
But Liverpool must hold on to hope. They will try to get past Wolves and force City to equal their result. Should City somehow slip and even record a draw - and Hughton’s players showed an improvement all-round in their 1-1 at Arsenal last Sunday - then Liverpool can claim the title with a win.
That such a scenario feels far-fetched is a comment on the state of the division and because of the disparity in expectations, it is difficult to proclaim this a league of quality in depth.
There are at least three tiers within the Premier League and while it can be said that has always been the case, the gap between top and bottom in the first Premier League season was 44 points (over 42 games) and today Huddersfield trail Manchester City by 80 points (over 37 games).
Admittedly, no one season should be seen in isolation, but wealth differentials are growing and will continue to grow. For Sheffield United next season, for instance, the contrast could be stark.
Another reading says the benchmark of Premier League quality is the presence of four English clubs in the two European finals and were they four Spanish or German clubs we would acknowledge this progress and dominance.
The English element of it is undermined by the four managers coming from outside England, as do the four owners, as do nearly all the star players. England is the venue.
It is also the attraction. The reason the money flowed into England in the first place is because of the early dynamism of the Premier League. A brand was created and built and remains dominant.
It may not be super competitive week-to-week for the richest clubs but among them there is little room for error. Hence City will become the first club to win consecutive titles since United under Sir Alex Ferguson in 2008 and 2009.
When measuring City’s achievement, those and so many other numbers count.
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