WHEN Neil Lennon left Hibernian back in January, the club were in real trouble. Disjointed performances on the pitch had led to a downturn in results and the Easter Road faithful were getting restless. Then Lennon - arguably one of the Leith club’s best managers in years - moved on, leaving behind a team in disarray.
Paul Heckingbottom was subsequently appointed as manager, and Hibernian haven’t looked back since. Few would have predicted when Heckingbottom got the job that Hibs would have leapfrogged rivals Hearts in the league standings, be sitting in fifth place and would have an eye on European football next season. But the turnaround has been emphatic, and Heckingbottom deserves an enormous amount of credit.
We’re now 10 games into Heckingbottom’s reign as Hibs manager and the 41-year-old remains unbeaten in the league: the 2-0 defeat in the Cup to Celtic back in February remains the only black mark against his name from his time in the Easter Road dugout so far. So, how has Heckingbottom succeeded where his predecessor Lennon failed?
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To say that Hibernian’s form since Heckingbottom took charge has been impressive would be something of an understatement. With Lennon in charge, Hibs were averaging 1.28 points per game. That figure has now risen to 2.33 points per game; higher than any other current Premiership manager, and only a marginally smaller return than the 2.38 points per game Brendan Rodgers was achieving at Celtic before he left for Leicester.
Heckingbottom’s Hibs are also averaging more goals and conceding fewer than they were under Lennon - hardly surprising, given the team’s upturn in form - but it is the team’s newfound ruthlessness in front of goal that has really caught the eye since the former Leeds United manager took charge.
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Under their new manager, Hibernian’s expected goals (xG) has decreased from 1.41 to 1.35, implying that they aren’t actually creating more quality chances than they were under Lennon: Hibs are simply making the most of the chances that they are creating. Similarly, despite the dramatic improvement in defence - Heckingbottom’s side are conceding 0.67 goals per 90, compared to Lennon’s 1.16 - Hibernian’s expected goals against (xGA) has slightly increased. In short, Hibs are creating fewer clear-cut opportunities and giving away more to the opposition, yet are scoring more and conceding fewer.
One of the main reasons for this upturn in fortunes on the pitch is down to the level of consistency Heckingbottom has brought with him to Easter Road. A common complaint from fans from Lennon’s time at the club this season was that he clearly didn’t know his best starting XI. The formation, and indeed the team’s entire tactical philosophy, was altered and tinkered with on a weekly basis to the point where Hibernian became less than the sum of their parts.
Since Heckingbottom’s arrival Hibernian have approached games, regardless of the opposition, in a consistent manner and this approach has paid dividends. The asymmetrical 4-4-2 Heckingbottom has installed is getting the most out of his players on the pitch and by rarely deviating from the ex-Barnsley manager’s preferred starting lineup, the players have had the opportunity to get to grips with this new system quickly. Everyone is keenly aware of their role in the team, and they’ve been given the time required to get familiar with this style of play.
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Under Lennon, much of Hibernian’s attacking play became listless and pedestrian at times. Too much focus was placed on ball retention and, as a result, opposition teams were given the opportunity to reorganise at the back. The same cannot be said of Heckingbottom’s Hibs, who play a far more direct brand of football.
Both the number of passes Hibs attempt per minute of possession and the average pass length has increased since Heckingbottom arrived in Leith, suggesting that the players are moving the ball forward at a faster rate. The overall number of passes per game that Hibs average has dropped from 391 to 357, as has their accuracy (from 79% to 76%). This drop-off in accuracy is to be expected; after all, if you’re playing more high-risk passes, then more of them are likely to go wrong.
It’s this direct approach which has been the primary driving force behind Hibernian’s resurgence as this tactical system plays to the squad’s strengths. Players like Daryl Horgan, Stephane Omoenga and Marc McNulty are far more useful when playing quick, direct football and Heckingbottom has been wise to realise this.
The new manager has come in, evaluated his players and then conceived his tactical approach to games accordingly. Under Lennon, the system came first and then players were shoehorned into roles that they weren’t entirely suited to. By setting his side up in a system that suits his team, as opposed to squeezing players into a predetermined formation, Heckingbottom has ensured that he gets the most out of his 11 players on the pitch and the rewards have been immediate and clear.
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