NEIL LENNON will return to Easter Road for the second time since he was appointed interim Celtic manager on Sunday as he bids to become the first manager to record a win over his successor at Hibernian Paul Heckingbottom.
Heckingbottom’s impact at Hibernian has been so far impressive, with Hibs moving into fifth spot in the Premiership following a 2-1 win over Hearts a fortnight ago - the Leith club’s first win at Tynecastle since 2013. As it stands, Lennon is the only manager to have defeated Heckingbottom in Scotland and will be hoping for a repeat performance of his side’s 2-0 win in the Scottish Cup last month.
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Celtic will undoubtedly be the favourites going into Sunday’s game, but they cannot afford to take Hibs lightly. Since taking charge at Easter Road, Heckingbottom has averaged 2.5 points per league match in his eight fixtures in charge so far. To put that figure into context, Lennon is currently averaging a points per game of 2.2. Even Brendan Rodgers only averaged 2.36.
This demonstrates Hibs’ impressive form of late and shows that they are indeed a force to be reckoned with. But Lennon has been here before, and knows better than any other the areas of the pitch where his old team can be got at.
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The last time the two sides met back in March, Hibs were ultimately undone by two fantastic individual strikes from James Forrest and Scott Brown. A comparison of the two sides’ expected goals (xG) confirms as much; Celtic’s xG of 0.69 was more than double Hibernian’s 0.29, but simultaneously reveals that Lennon’s team struggled to create clear-cut chances.
This time around, Celtic will need to be more creative in the final third and find a way to break down the Hibernian defence. The loss of Ryan Christie will obviously hurt Celtic’s chances here, but Hibernian do have a weakness that Lennon is aware of and will be looking to exploit on Sunday.
Celtic’s style under Lennon has evolved from that of Rodgers’ team and Lennon clearly favours a more direct approach from his players. Part of this involves using the full width of the pitch and distributing the ball to wide players, who are then tasked with swinging deliveries into the box. Since Lennon took charge, the number of crosses Celtic have attempted in every game bar one has been higher than the average number of crosses attempted during Rodgers’ time at the club.
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Hibernian can at times struggle when it comes to winning defensive headers and this is certainly something that Lennon will be all too aware of. Hibs usually win 46.69% of their defensive headers but during the last meeting between the two clubs, this figure almost halved and plummeted to 29.63%. Celtic, for their part, were winning two thirds of all aerial duels contested in the match and clearly had the edge over Hibs in this department.
By making the most of their attacking threat from wide areas, Celtic should have the upper hand and the data suggests this is the most obvious hole in this current Hibernian team. Celtic may well find a way through by bombarding the Hibs box, but at the other end of the pitch there is one player in particular that will need to be watched closely.
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Daryl Horgan has been one of Hibernian’s standout performers this season and was the match-winner in the recent Edinburgh derby, scoring both goals for the visitors in the 2-1 win at Tynecastle. While Horgan grabbed the headlines with his strikes either side of the half-time whistle, it is the Irishman’s dribbling ability that truly sets him apart from others in the Premiership.
Horgan has the second-highest dribbling success of any player in the league with 81.76% of his runs completed. Only Borna Barisic has a higher success rate in this regard, and Celtic must keep a close eye on Horgan if they are to leave Easter Road with all three points on Sunday.
In addition to this dribbling ability, Horgan is also the eighth-best player in the league in terms of shot assists per 90 minutes and has five assists to his name so far this campaign. Ensuring that there is no space for Horgan to drive into is a must for Celtic on Sunday: the 26-year-old has repeatedly shown this season that he excels at driving past his opposite number and finding a team-mate in the box. There are few players in the Scottish top flight capable of hurting the opposition like Horgan can and as a result Celtic must be wary of the winger’s threat, particularly on the counter-attack.
Sunday’s encounter should be a fascinating match for fans and neutrals alike and while Celtic should win, on paper at least, Hibernian have enough about them to cause Lennon’s side real problems. Horgan represents Hibs’ greatest attacking threat but if Celtic can keep him quiet, and make the most of their aerial superiority at the other end, then they should be able to leave Leith with three points in the bag and move one step closer to clinching an eighth consecutive league title.
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