ANYONE who witnessed the goalless first meeting between Hearts and Hibs in this year's Scottish Cup is unlikely to be writing off the chance of the tie being decided by a penalty shoot-out after a similar stalemate in the replay. So perhaps it helps Hearts' chances that in assistant head coach Austin MacPhee they are blessed in having one of the foremost world authorities on the subject.
As part of his preparations for Northern Ireland's knock-out stage matches in Euro 2016, MacPhee undertook a lengthy study which included analysing how the heart rate of each of his players spiked as they made the fateful walk from the halfway line to the penalty spot, and compiled an academic paper on how this directly correlated with the amount of times they had missed from 12 yards in training.
While all this knowledge will be helpful should such an situation come to pass this week, most of the training will be geared towards Hearts finishing the job at the home of their city rivals within regulation time. And some of the secrets of the shoot-out will always resist analysis - such as how his father's favourite team Dunfermline have no missed no fewer than nine penalties this season, failing to score at all during their recent Scottish Cup tie against Hamilton Accies.
"Being involved at the Euros, when we went into the Wales game, we were forensic about penalties," MacPhee said. "We had the data on all our players' success from penalty kicks, our keeper had all the tendencies of their players and we believed that was our way of having a marginal gain to progress if you will. We even did the walk from the halfway line at the Parc des Princes to the penalty spot and watched their spike. I did an academic paper on it.
"Naturally we are trying to focus on winning the game within 90 minutes - however we will be prepared for every eventuality. We will focus on being in the next round of the cup at home against Ayr United."
One significant factor in that first match stalemate was the rutted Tynecastle pitch. The dynamic in the crowd will also be different. But as much as Hearts wanted to win in front of their own fans, MacPhee feels the environment at Easter Road may be more suited to their hopes of victory. "You could look at it and see that Easter Road could be an environment where we could get things going a little bit more," he said. "That’s what we will be looking to do."
If the cool, analytical manner of both MacPhee and head coach Ian Cathro seems anathema to the hurly burly of Edinburgh derby day, that doesn't mean they aren't prepared to get into the spirit of things. Not only do supporters expect their coaching staff to be kicking every ball on such occasions, but referees too can be influenced by how coaches act on the touchline. As early as the match has come in their tenure, victory or defeat in this fixture could prove crucial in the supporters' perception of Hearts' new coaching team.
“You understand the ramifications of losing the derby," said MacPhee. "We’re not naive as to what they are. It's so important for the supporters. We know what happened last year. But you don't make good decisions when you're emotional.
"Sometimes at the side of the pitch it can be a bit like a pantomime, and you need to play it as well. Referees are human as well, they get influenced in a number of different ways, and if they're getting influenced by one team and not the other it’ll be to to our detriment. So sometimes you have to put on your costume and take part."
MacPhee's biggest cup success to date, the 2013 League Cup win with St Mirren, was achieved in tandem with Hibs' duo John McGinn and Darren McGregor.
"Darren was injured at the cup final and for me it has been great to see him get his career back on track," MacPhee said. "Because I was there when he tore his cruciate, then he tore his other one on his first game back.
"You make relationships in football through time and while I certainly don't want them getting to the quarter-finals of the cup they are guys I look out for."
Amid all this penalty analysis, one thing the razor-sharp MacPhee will have noticed is that one of his players, Slovenian right-back Andraz Struna, has never hit one, in a match or in a shoot-out.
“I have never taken one, it is always the other players who want to take them," Struna said. "I have never been in a situation in a cup where penalties have decided the winner. I don’t know if I will take one, we will see if the situation arises. Hopefully we will manage to win before it gets to that stage."
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