It used to be said that success among rugby’s Celtic nations was cyclical but professionalism was always likely to change that and so it has proven.
When the game went open 20 years ago it took a few years before the Celts got full-time rugby up and running but since then clear water has emerged between what has happened in Scotland, the biggest of the three and the development of the sport in Ireland and Wales.
As titles and Grand Slams have been regularly accrued by Scotland’s fellow Celts in this new Millennium so, what was supposed to have been extended at its start to a Six Nations Championship has instead shrunk to a four nation competition with two others playing an annual match to avoid the Wooden Spoon.
As Irish and Welsh rugby have moved into virtuous cyles, in one case through a thriving provincial set-up and in the other, ironically, as a result of seizing upon one of the few mistakes Irish rugby has made in this era when discarding one of the finest coaches of modern times in Warren Gatland, so poor decision-making and leadership have cost Scotland dearly.
Having covered Test rugby for 12 years before seeing Ireland register a win over Scotland, a sequence encompassing 12 matches between 1989 and 2000, witnessing the turn-around has been shocking, while a solitary victory over Wales since 2003 would have perhaps seemed even more unlikely back in the eighties and nineties.
This weekend, however, all three are involved in the World Cup quarter-finals and that offers an opportunity for a fresh start.
It is no more than that because prior to the professionalisation of the Murrayfield administration and the vast millions of pounds given to board members and executives as well as players and coaches, it was a given that Scotland would be contesting such matches.
Like Wales against South Africa the Scots are considered second favourites against a leading Southern Hemisphere side but if a corner is to be turned then what better opposition could they have than the Wallabies, whom they have beaten on two of the three previous occasions they have met.
As much as a Test of the players, coaches and administrators as this will be, however, it is also a weekend that will tell us much about how much residual passion there is for Scottish rugby after a spell that has seen three different imported coaches lead the team to ‘whitewashes’ in the Six Nations Championship and one of them oversee a first ever failure to reach the knockout stages of the World Cup.
There has been a fair bit of evidence of purchasing activity on social media in the past few days with many tickets having come back onto the market and there is no question that, for all that they remain hideously overpriced in these austere times, those available to Irish and Welsh fans will have been snapped up.
Following Ireland from Wembley, where their supporters set a tournament record attendance in what was always going to be a no-contest of a match against Romania, to the Olympic Stadium, to the Millennium Stadium over the past three weeks has been inspiring, as has the scale of the Welsh presence at English rugby’s headquarters for their epic encounters with the hosts and the Southern Hemisphere champions.
Scottish rugby supporters have meanwhile traditionally proven themselves to be a resilient bunch, continuing to turn up in huge numbers through long win-less runs in the fifties and the seventies in particular.
That was, though, when very different pricing policies were in place and whereas Irish and Welsh supporters have become used to shelling out vast sums in the confidence that they will be treated to experiences that will distract them from these austere times, Scottish supporters have been given less cause for thinking that way.
While, then, Jamie Heaslip could be confident when calling for another ‘sea of green’ to wash over Cardiff this weekend, we wait to see just how much hope, at least, if not expectation can still be generated among Scotland supporters.
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