WHEN I spent some time in the Scotland squad’s hotel earlier this week, one thing was very clear: the players are in a really good, positive mood. They have nothing to lose, and they’re massive underdogs, which is a position they probably prefer.
Everyone is talking about Australia. They are one of the favourites, if not THE favourite, to win the Rugby World Cup, and showed against both England and Wales that they are an all-round team in which defence and attack are equally strong.
So Scotland were already going to be up against it, even before they lost Jonny Gray and Ross Ford to suspension, and Matt Scott to injury.There’s no denying that those losses will slightly weaken us, but Ireland and Wales have already shown how a squad can be galvanised by the loss of key players. And, having said that, the loss of David Pocock and Israel Folau, both of whom are real leaders on the pitch, is a huge blow to Australia and will give our team even more confidence.
Fraser Brown comes in at hooker for Ford, and he has had an outstanding competition so far. Whether he is playing in his preferred position or in the back row, as he can also do, he is a great competitor.
In the second row, Tim Swinson does not have Gray’s bulk, but he is mobile and he works very hard. He can always be relied upon to put in a large number of tackles, even if getting up close to Gray’s stats on that front will be a big ask.
The one voluntary change made by head coach Vern Cotter sees Blair Cowan, normally an openside, come into the back row at blindside alongside John Hardie and David Denton. I think this is the area that will determine the outcome of the contest.
Our two No 7s, Cowan and Hardie, need to slow Australia down. Even without the injured Pocock, the Wallabies back row is formidably quick at the breakdown, and if they consistently get quick ball that will give them a substantial advantage in the match. Obviously I hope our boys come out on top, but it is a massive ask.
Behind the scrum, Greig Laidlaw and Finn Russell have a big part to play, as ever, in getting good ball to our most dangerous attackers, Mark Bennett, Stuart Hogg, Sean Maitland and Tommy Seymour. I’d like to see Greig speed up his distribution to the backs from time to time, varying the tempo of attacks according to what best suits the situation.
It will be interesting to see how much Finn is helped by having Scott’s replacement, Peter Horne, on the field. Horne and Bennett are obviously not the most physical of centre combinations, and there’s little doubt that the Australians will target them in quite a few attacks.
But on our own ball, Horne brings more width than Scott does, and he also plays in a way that should take some of the pressure off Russell. Having played a lot at No 10, he is effectively a second fly-half, and the fact that he is left-footed provides a different option for Scotland.
It will be a totally different game than last weekend’s match against Samoa. Australia will throw a lot at Scotland from early on, as Samoa did, but they will not be so predictable. They have brawn in their back line, which they will aim to exploit, but they have an awful lot of brain there too.
In fact, I would say the Wallabies have the best attacking back line in the tournament. Bernard Foley has been magnificent at No 10, and he has so many weapons outside him.
The key for Scotland is having enough ball, and keeping it for a decent length of time when they get hold of it. They need to take one or two risks, they need to kick every goal, and they need to take every restart cleanly - something they badly failed to do against Samoa.
In short, Scotland need to have a real go. Australia are under serious pressure as well - massive pressure, in fact, because almost everyone expects them to go out there and win well. We need to make them think, and cause them problems, and let’s see where that gets us.
It should be a cracking game, and Scotland have to see it as a great opportunity. There could easily be one more big shock in this tournament. Let’s hope this is it.
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