Scottish Labour has pulled ahead of the SNP in Westminster voting intentions and the parties are neck-and-neck in the Holyrood constituency vote, an opinion poll has found.
The poll if the first to be conducted since it became clear John Swinney would be the next SNP leader and First Minister, replacing Humza Yousaf - but before he was confirmed as First Minister.
The Savanta poll for The Scotsman saw 1,080 Scottish adults interviewed online between May 3 and May 8.
Kate Forbes, who was seen as Mr Swinney’s main potential rival for the leadership within the SNP MSP group, announced she would not run against him on May 2.
For the Westminster vote, the poll puts Labour on 37%, the SNP on 33%, the Conservatives on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 7% and “other” on 6%.
Savanta said it is its first poll showing a Labour lead over the SNP in Westminster voting intentions.
🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for @TheScotsman
— Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) May 10, 2024
📈Labour lead the SNP for first time in a Savanta poll.
🌹LAB 37% (+2)
🎗️SNP 33% (-2)
🌳CON 17% (-2)
🔶LD 7% (+1)
⬜️Other 6% (+1)
1,080 Scottish adults, 3-8 May
(change from 6-11 Oct '23) pic.twitter.com/DW2TSzve9m
It said that according to the seat modelling site Electoral Calculus, the results, if replicated at a general election, would see 29 Labour MPs elected in Scotland.
READ MORE: Would Kate Forbes or John Swinney make a better First Minister?
For the Holyrood constituency vote, the poll puts Labour and the SNP tied on 35%.
Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour is ahead in the Holyrood list vote – at 32% compared to the SNP’s 26%.
🚨NEW Holyrood list VI for @TheScotsman
— Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) May 10, 2024
📈Labour extend lead to 6pts in the List VI.
🌹LAB 32% (+3)
🎗️SNP 26% (-2)
🌳CON 18% (-2)
🌍Green 11% (-2)
🔶LD 10% (+2)
⬜️Other 4% (+2)
1,080 Scottish adults, 3-8 May
(change from 6-11 Oct '23) pic.twitter.com/rP8vjVOuYR
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “This is the first time ever that Savanta’s research has shown a Labour lead over the SNP for Westminster voting intention.
“Our findings really do underline the major uphill task that John Swinney faces as the new First Minister.
READ MORE: SNP to 'lose 28 MPs as Labour takes lead'
“While our research suggests that the SNP continues to have a solid base, they’re likely to fall quite far from the 43 seats they currently hold at the next general election, as things stand.
“Even if Swinney can begin to turn things around, the spectre of Sturgeon and everything her time in power is now associated with will continue to hang over the party and hamper any recovery.”
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