It’s almost Budget day, and we’ve been warned.

For months, the Scottish Government has been issuing dire messages about its financial black hole. Westminster then tells Scotland it’s giving more; Scotland tells Westminster it’s not enough. But cross-border politics don’t convey the reality for people: of what it will feel like if you are a supported person, a social care worker or employer. Good decisions about allocating public funds need clear understanding of consequences, not generalised fear coated in warm words. So here goes.

The social care system in Scotland is facing a profound sustainability crisis which means that, too often, people cannot get the support they need. Over 6,000 people are waiting for a social care assessment; over 3,200 are still waiting for the care they are entitled to. That’s not everyone. If you aren’t at crisis level you probably don’t even get on a list.

The Government attempts repeatedly to deal with unacceptable A&E waits and people stuck in hospital but doesn’t switch large-scale investment to social care services that could support people at home.

Social care charities can’t fill enough posts or retain experienced social care staff due to the Government setting pay levels too low, despite telling us it is committed to Fair Work. Today you will be paid 15% less to provide a contracted public service in our sector than you would if you were paid directly by the NHS. The Government thinks our staff should be grateful for being paid the Real Living Wage, which  is a fantastic lever to get people out of poverty but not the appropriate baseline pay for regulated, qualified, skilled staff providing complex support to people at their most vulnerable.

At the turn of the financial year, over 80% of our members were delivering public contracts despite a deficit budget. Over 60% were discussing contract viability with councils. Nearly 40% were declining, or not taking on, new support services. We estimate our charitable providers now also face a combined additional bill of around £30m in employers’ National Insurance with no guarantees of an exemption. The impact on an 80%+ female workforce, on carers, and on supported people, will be immense. Services cannot operate if they are not financially viable. Period.

So, in this Budget the Government can keep throwing money at what isn’t working. Or it can do something better: invest in social care so people can lead good lives in their communities, their families, in workplaces and schools: not in hospitals in crisis. Value staff and reward them for their invaluable work with people at their most vulnerable. Commit to a baseline pay award just 10% above the RLW, as a first step to equity. Keep lobbying Westminster to grant our sector an NI exemption but be clear that you simply won’t let services go under. You can’t afford to be without us, and neither can the people we support.

For years we’ve heard warm words about frontline social care staff. But let’s be honest: staff need way more than warm words on Wednesday.

Rachel Cackett is CEO of the Coalition of Care & Support Providers in Scotland

Agenda is a column for outside contributors. Contact: agenda@theherald.co.uk