Just as I pulled into at Heydar Aliyev International Airport at about 0240 Baku time, I received word that the crucial agreement of a new financial package had been gaveled through at COP29, bringing tense negotiations to a close. As I made my way further through the airport, however, word kept coming to demonstrate that it wasn’t quite so simple.

The COP President took the conference by surprise in quickly hammering through the text, apparently looking the other way as he did so, without taking time to hear objections. Following his approval, country after country took the floor to say that they do not agree with the text, they feel betrayed by the process, and have lost faith in this system.

Make no mistake, the deal reached at COP29 is no cause for celebration. To the contrary, the deal reached and the manner of reaching it spell doom and gloom for multilateral climate processes and the very premise of a rules-based global order.

COP29, dubbed the finance COP, was all about getting together a new global financial package that would help countries get towards their climate goals set out under the Paris Agreement. Since the very first COP, there has been an explicit agreement that developed countries had a responsibility to lead on climate action and stump up the cash that Global South countries need to transition to post-carbon economies, whilst adapting to and recovering from climate impacts they are already experiencing.

(Image: SCIAF)

The Global South has been clear since day one of this conference what their demand for finance was - £1.3tr annually. It took until the very last scheduled day of COP29 for developed countries to finally coalesce around a counter offer of $250m. Two days of chaos then followed, a $300m deal was pushed through, and no developing country seems happy with it. The devil is in the detail: many observers note that it’s the quality of the financial package that matters, not just the quantity. Much of this finance will come in the form of loans which will only further exacerbate the crippling debt crisis many climate vulnerable countries are in, and the means of counting up to the target could mean in real terms, it is little more than already provided.

Some developing countries – like the ones SCIAF works in - will say that this COP came at the wrong time. They'll write the history of this COP as having been hurt by the Trump election victory just days before it began, and the difficult financial position that many developed countries are currently experiencing.

However, while they may believe it themselves, this position does not hold water. This COP has been coming for years. Since Paris 2015, countries have known that by the end of 2024 they should agree a new, higher, more robust and needs-based climate finance target. When they need to, in the case of an emergency situation like COVID or bailing out the banks, Governments find the money. In the case of defense spending, countries sometimes even stump up cash for prevention rather than cure - the UK is increasing its defense spending to 2.5% of GDP this year, over which there is broad political consensus, to protect the UK's interests in an increasing volatile world.

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It is a political choice not to invest in climate action in the same way, and I'm afraid our leaders are making the wrong choice. In 2022, the world invested $7tr in fossil fuel subsidies, despite knowing that most of the world’s fossil fuels need to stay in the ground to keep to the 1.5C temperate goal.

It is vital that the COP process does not fail, and that the road to COP30 in Brazil is pathed with bold new commitments. By February, all countries must submit new climate plans sketching out their domestic action to reduce emissions by 2035. Throughout 2025, countries must consider how they will urgently scale up finance to get towards the goal agreed at COP29 as quickly as possible, but also to exceed it rapidly, by tapping into new and innovative sources of finance (including new levies on polluting behaviors, carbon taxation and green quantitative easing).

Make no mistake. The UN process on climate almost collapsed here, and may yet still as a result of COP29. However, the future of our planet depends no on everyone taking this as a warning sign. There is no greater peril than a breakdown of global efforts to literally save the world. COP29 must be a shot in the arm for a global community that at times feels to be sleepwalking towards environmental catastrophe; it’s time to wake up.