Politicians? They are all at it. But here's why they have my sympathy

And, from everywhere, ideas. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has suggested it might be feasible that Scotland’s tax rates, which outpace those in England, are in reality generating reduced revenue. That comes on top of warnings, thus far discounted, that high earners may shift their income elsewhere if the tax gap is too great.

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Look, too, at the report from the Auditor General, Stephen Boyle. He accused Ministers of ducking the evident need to reform public services, rather than simply disbursing more cash. Mr Boyle has made this point previously – and is plainly becoming exasperated. As always, the tone is measured but still he demands “transparency” from the Scottish Government. Which is auditor speak for “time to get serious.”

Quite rightly, Russell Findlay, he who leads the Scottish Conservatives, assailed the First Minister on this point. John Swinney essayed a couple of opening parries: talk of Tory austerity and Liz Truss. But his main point was that Mr Findlay had failed to suggest alternatives.

So who’s right? They both are. Mr Findlay is entitled to cite the Auditor General who accused Ministers of relying on short-term solutions, rather than strategic change. Mr Swinney is right to rebut that his opponent is short on detail. For the avoidance of doubt, Labour is comparably culpable with regard to the UK budget set out by the Chancellor. Note the additional cash provided to the NHS – without first securing the reform which the Westminster Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, now argues is essential.

In short, they are all at it. But they have my sympathy. For two reasons. Times are tough fiscally. And the voters will need considerable cajoling before they submit to the substantial change which is required in public policy, the reforms in the NHS and other services which are now urgent.

Put most simply, we cannot afford the NHS as it is presently constituted. Demand is out of control while the supply structures – hospital procedures et al – are hopelessly antiquated. Meanwhile expensive new drugs emerge daily, each with their own well-motivated advocates, prompted by the big companies.

We need reform. Not, at this point, heaps of new cash. To be fair to Scottish Labour, they suggested just that in a paper this week. But that paper scarcely went beyond bullet points. To be fair, further, the Health Secretary Neil Gray – and other key Ministers – are actively seeking change. As, to record a hat-trick of fairness, are Mr Streeting and colleagues. The point the Auditor General is making is that time is running out. There is a hole in the Scottish budget right now.

Can Anas Sarwar escape the shadow of Sir Keir Starmer? (Image: free) Which brings me back to Mr Findlay. He is suggesting substantial tax cuts in Scotland. In many ways, this reflects the traditional Tory standpoint – and also makes use of Holyrood’s power to vary, rather than simply increase, tax. But, as John Swinney pointed out acerbically, Mr Findlay has yet to specify what programmes he would cut.

The Tories say they need to see the books in detail, accompanying the December 4 budget. A reasonable point – but two thoughts occur. Firstly, they could give us a clue now, beyond broadly questioning social security benefits. Secondly, their declaration is more about a political stance countering the SNP than the drafting of an alternative budget.

Ditto Scottish Labour with their offer to fund a revised winter fuel payment in Scotland, if returned to Holyrood power. That too is a political manoeuvre, designed to appease angry Scottish pensioners – and perhaps in anticipation of an initiative from Scottish Ministers. Labour MPs – who meekly backed the UK change – are less than delighted.

To be clear, I raise no objection to strategic ruses. They are part of electoral politics. But they have little to do with formulating the current Scottish budget. Still less the Auditor General’s asks.

As to that budget, it remains possible that a deal will not be found. It remains possible that there will have to be an early Holyrood election. Possible – but highly unlikely. Nobody, least of all weary voters, wants an early ballot which would be in addition, note, to the fixed poll due in 2026.

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At Holyrood this week, I discerned little serious appetite for that scenario. So who might do a deal? Not the Tories – they are building their narrative of tax cuts for that 2026 election. Not Labour – their argument is founded upon challenging the SNP to make wise use of the largesse provided by Ms Reeves. (Or, more accurately, by state borrowing and unpopular tax hikes.).

The Greens? Still think not. Mr Swinney was ineffably polite while rebutting Lorna Slater’s demand for a levy on big retailers who sell alcohol and cigarettes. He outlined other avenues.

More to the point, SNP MSPs want away from Greenery. They do not want to revisit the Bute House pact. I suspect the Greens might also prefer a distinctive position. Which leaves the Liberal Democrats. I think the shelving of the National Care Service was aimed partly at them. They have long loathed the concept. LibDem sources tell me they are getting a bit of pushback from their voters for presenting the SNP with a list of demands. For talking at all. But, then again, there might be alternative pressures in the New Year if the talks fail and add to the uncertainty and anxiety already afflicting families.

In January, of course, it is Hail to the Chief in the shape of President Trump with his plans for trade tariffs. As one Holyrood source said to me, the economic challenges may look very different then. We might welcome reassurance.

Brian Taylor is a former political editor for BBC Scotland and a columnist for The Herald. He cherishes his family, the theatre - and Dundee United FC