The questions have been piling up since President-elect Donald Trump’s sweeping election victory. How will Trump impact on conflicts around the world, especially in the Middle East and Ukraine? Will he exacerbate geopolitical instability and weaken efforts to tackle climate change? Will he undermine democracy at home and abroad, precipitate trade wars, and attack migrants ever more harshly?

His victory may be welcome in Moscow and Beijing and not in Brussels, London or Edinburgh but these questions are relevant to all. In the EU, concerns focus on a few key areas: Trump’s threats of tariffs on EU exports; his ‘peace plan’ for Ukraine; potential weaker US involvement in NATO; and the expected US withdrawal, once again, from the Paris climate treaty.

In London, these concerns are shared too. The UK is not immune to potential US tariffs of 10-20% across the board on its exports – an unwelcome hit to an economy still damaged by Brexit’s hit to EU-UK trade. But there are added concerns and dilemmas for the UK government due to Brexit.

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Through Brexit, the UK has sidelined itself not only economically but in political and security terms too. Yes, the UK is still in NATO. But crucial decisions around a range of regional and international policies, such as enlarging the EU to Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, humanitarian assistance to Gaza, action on climate change, relations with China, trade deals with other players around the world, are now taken in Brussels with no input from the UK.

The UK has, of course, consulted with European allies on support for Ukraine. And the government will doubtless be talking to France, Germany and others about the support Ukraine needs both immediately and in anticipation of a Trump ‘peace’ initiative at the start of 2025. But the UK is not in the room when EU member states debate military, humanitarian and economic support for Ukraine.

On the destruction of Gaza, and Israel’s continuing attacks, in Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East, the little influence the EU and UK might have had to promote peace has been destroyed by divisions within the EU, and by the UK and Germany supplying arms to Israel alongside the US. It is notable that Trump’s future policy on the Middle East is not at the forefront of European concerns – a disturbing absence that reflects European impotence.

In this worsening geopolitical context, it is welcome that Sir Keir Starmer, has taken steps to put EU-UK relations on a more cordial basis since July’s election. There will be an EU-UK summit in 2025 and there is broad agreement to try to negotiate some potential easing of EU-UK trade barriers. But while Starmer has adopted the Tories red lines on Brexit – no free movement of labour, no rejoining the EU or its single market or its customs union – any talks will be limited in scope. And the EU will remain alert to the UK trying to cherry-pick parts of the single market that suit it best.

Donald TrumpDonald Trump (Image: free) How is President Trump likely to impact on these more positive but rather limited UK-EU vibes? The question of tariffs is certainly going to be one that might split the UK from the EU.

Perhaps, say some, the UK could offer Trump a favourable trade deal in return for no tariffs. This looks highly unlikely as it would bring us back to discussion of US exports of chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-treated beef. Trump’s friendly relations with Nigel Farage, his weak, Brexit-loving imitator, will not help in hard-headed trade talks.

Any differentiation between the UK and EU in their reaction to US tariffs will also doubtless annoy Brussels. It will be a significant political choice for Starmer. Will the UK discuss with EU partners and present a coordinated response as and when Trump provokes a trade war? Or will the UK look to its own advantage?

If it’s the latter, then that is going to make EU-UK talks on easing trade barriers much frostier. And it will cast a sharp light on whether Starmer genuinely wants to bring the UK closer to the EU again, albeit without reversing Brexit. Either way, the UK risks being caught in the headlights of a US-EU trade war as the major players slog it out.

On climate change, the European Green Deal, the centre-piece of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s first term, is looking rather frayed at the edges. But the EU is still a significant, potentially influential player in global climate talks. The UK needs to work with the EU, rather than simply proclaiming – as Ed Miliband and Keir Starmer have – that it is now going to be a world leader here.

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On migration, the irony, given Trump’s threats to deport illegal migrants, is that the EU and the UK are toughening both rhetoric and actions on dealing with asylum-seekers and migrants. Calling out Trump’s future behaviour to illegal migrants in human rights terms risks sounding hypocritical, and UK and EU leaders may anyway prioritise mollifying not criticising Trump.

In the end, neither the EU nor the UK look in a strong place when it comes to responding to a Trump presidency. Germany’s governing coalition has just collapsed. Early elections are imminent – and Germany’s far right, polls suggest, will do well. In France, President Macron is only in power for just over two more years and the far-right threatens there too.

In the UK, Keir Starmer has a solid majority for the next five years but remains wary of Britain’s own far right. The twin impacts of Brexit and a Trump presidency will not make for a comfortable ride. More broadly, amidst growing global instability, the whole concept of ‘the West’ looks ever more fractured.

Starmer’s cautious, technocratic approach to EU-UK relations may soon look timid and inadequate indeed to the challenges of our times. The UK is no longer, as it once claimed, a bridge between the EU and US. Sitting on the sidelines of these two major powers may soon become even more uncomfortable.

Kirsty Hughes a political scientist, founder and Director of Scottish Centre on European Relations and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh