How to respond to Trump? Swinney gets it right – eventually

Was it jubilation, echoing the raucous cries of triumph from his more strident, cap-waving idolators? Was it despair, as etched on the despondent Democrat faces?

Or was it perhaps apprehension? What might happen to civil rights? What might happen to the global economy?

Will President Trump seek to Make America Great Again by instigating a tariff-driven trade war? What about the Middle East? Ukraine?

Mr Trump airily dismisses such doubts. Nay-sayers. Doom-mongers. Fake news. A “golden age” awaits. He plainly plans to govern, at least in the initial phase, with the totemic simplicity of approach which won him the presidency.

While Kamala Harris struggled to detach herself from the record in office she shared with Joe Biden, her opponent kept it basic, as only he can.

In essence, he said: she broke America, I’ll fix it. He told voters: you’re hurting, I’ll sort it. It could not have been more elemental. He promised folk they’d be able again to afford groceries and gas. They bought it.

So why the apprehension? For one thing, he is a convicted felon, a new departure for the States where leaders commonly face condemnation from their opponents, rather than the law courts.

For another, his own statements. His attitude to women. His views on migrants. His refusal to accept the election result four years ago, allied to his expectation of a free hand in power this time around.

There is apprehension concerning the environment. At minimum, President-elect Trump is sceptical about measures to tackle climate change. At maximum, he is downright hostile, endorsing the automobile and oil.

There is apprehension concerning the Middle East. Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have had their moments in a prolonged and varied relationship.

But the message of congratulations from the Israeli Prime Minister was cordial and even familial, citing spouses. Might Israel now feel empowered to extend the current conflict with neighbouring populations?

Then there is Ukraine. During the campaign, Mr Trump said he could solve that question in 24 hours. Most dismissed this as bombast. But how might such a truncated solution be achieved? Only by cajoling Ukraine to concede territory to the invading Russians.

Russia’s initial response to the US election was a calculated shrug of Kremlin shoulders. But President Putin now seems enthused, saying he is ready to talk and praising Mr Trump, who survived an assassination attempt, as a “courageous man”.

In both cases – the Middle East and Ukraine – there will be significant and well-founded apprehension in diplomatic and governmental circles.

It is certain that, right now, cooler heads in the State Department and the US Military are nodding slowly, quietly preparing the counter arguments which they may need to deploy, should the new

President seek to pursue drastic, truncated solutions in either conflict zone.
The question is whether such moderating arguments will be heard over the noise emanating from the new populist advocates who are currently clamouring for a role in the West Wing.

Then there is the response from Europe, from the UK – and from Scotland. EU leaders must simply hope that they can mitigate the prospect of a trade war, recollecting that it was a dispute with their bloc which prompted the punitive imposition of tariffs during Mr Trump’s first stint in the White House.

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The Prime Minister looks forward to working with the new US administration. But what about comments made six years ago by David Lammy, now the Foreign Secretary, who labelled Mr Trump “a neo-Nazi sympathising sociopath”? No, no, Britain has no greater friend than the US of A.

And Scotland? How should we respond, collectively, to this election? Perhaps you echo the actor Brian Cox who said he would never portray Trump on screen, branding him “crazy” and a “monster”. (This, remember, from a star who once played Hannibal Lecter.)

Perhaps you simply hope for happier times, for an end to the angst currently shrouding our people in these post-pandemic days. Perhaps you too yearn for a golden age, as promised.

The First Minister, John Swinney, plainly shares the mood of apprehension. Indeed, towards the close of the campaign, he went further and declared his personal backing for Kamala Harris, gently suggesting that Americans should vote for her.

I understand his dilemma. I feel sure his party members mostly share his stated preference. But I am equally sure that, on reflection, he realises these comments were a mistake.

One, he gained nothing. It is beyond the bounds of credibility that any votes were swayed by his statement.

Two, he discarded the neutrality which political leaders commonly afford to the democratic process of another country. He should have simply noted that he would await the choice of the American people.

More fundamentally, has he shed any lingering fragment of influence which Scotland has in Washington? I think not.

(Image: First Minister John Swinney)
Patrick Harvie of the Greens invited Mr Swinney to disengage from the White House, branding Mr Trump a misogynist, a racist and a fraudster, among other epithets.

Picking his way carefully, Mr Swinney said he had a “duty” to work with other polities, to sustain “cultural, social and economic” ties.

Perhaps, in that expression, he had in mind Scotland’s crucial whisky industry which lost £600m in export sales when Trump Mark One imposed tariffs on single malt.

Now, I understand Patrick Harvie’s evident anger. But, still, I believe John Swinney called it right – eventually – in his letter to the victor.

He summoned up Mr Trump’s Scottish roots. He talked of enduring connections with America. Then, acknowledging the democratic outcome, he wished the returning President every success.

As for The Donald, he has warned that his second term might be “nasty a little bit at times, and maybe at the beginning in particular.” We watch, apprehensively.

Brian Taylor is a former political editor for BBC Scotland and a columnist for The Herald. He cherishes his family, the theatre - and Dundee United FC.