There are few things worse in politics than your opponent agreeing with you. Nothing is so exasperating as the sanctimonious, insincere smile of sympathy. John Swinney is enduring that particular pain right now – although, as an experienced operator, he is bearing the burden with fortitude.
There he was, all set to condemn the Chancellor’s budget. And what did she do, the rotter? She conceded his key advance demands. The First Minister called for “an end to austerity” in the public finances. Definitely delivered. We will look later at who picks up the tab. Mr Swinney had also urged changes to the fiscal rules to enable higher state borrowing. Once more, tick. The FM forced an ironic smile as he suggested his relentless logic had swayed the Chancellor.
The political landscape has just changed. Changed utterly. And, with a Scottish budget due early next month, the First Minister is left searching for a new narrative. I expect he will cope. But, for now, the momentum lies with Labour.
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In the Holyrood chamber, Anas Sarwar exuded Tiggerish glee as he listed at length the glory that is Reeves. The largest block settlement for Scotland in the history of devolution; a pay rise for the lowest workers; an extension to the fuel duty cut; GB Energy in Aberdeen; support for miners and others. “I could go on”, he chortled.
No doubt shortage of time prevented him from mentioning a £25bn burden on UK business; higher capital gains and inheritance tax, including on farmers; a hike in whisky duty; and the withdrawal of winter fuel payments from most pensioners.
Now, if your primary concern is enhancing public services, then you might laud the Chancellor. If, however, you fret about the sluggish state of our economy, the absence of any durable growth, then you might still be disappointed.
The Office for Budget Responsibility has judged this budget and fails to discern any significant, sustainable growth in the period ahead. Indeed, the trajectory flattens out.
The Prime Minister stresses this is an emergency package, designed to fill the inherited black hole – and that repairing the public infrastructure will, of itself, help stimulate the economy. But where next?
In simplistic terms, it is hard to equate prioritising growth with a substantial increase in business taxation – which is likely to constrain expansion and jobs.
Incidentally, I believe that Labour have met the strict wording of their manifesto – that there would be no tax hike for working people. On their payslip, as the PM now says.
In Scotland, Labour will attack the SNP for taxing workers. Scottish Ministers will say they use their limited fiscal powers to best effect. However, Sir Keir also left a clear impression that he disdained tax increases generally. This budget scarcely squares with that.
health – is for day-to-day revenue spending, not capital (although there is money there too.)
As for the guiding mantra, Rachel Reeves says that it is to “invest, invest, invest”. But, to critics, it feels more like “tax, borrow and spend”. The biggest bill – £22.6bn extra forIt will be down to UK Ministers to explain why they have decided to fund the NHS up front before seeing evidence of the matching reforms in productivity and procedure which they now expect. The NHS – in England, as in Scotland – features highly-motivated staff. But it is also a huge bureaucracy, held back by inertia. Without urgent action, Ministers on both sides of the border may find that new revenue cash vanishes, as before.
In Scotland, as in England, the NHS is under review. Before that, Scottish Ministers have to reach a deal with another party at Holyrood to secure support for their own tax and spending plans.
The Greens? Not looking good. Mr Swinney ruled out reviving cash for Green projects this financial year. New money from the Treasury is already earmarked for pay rises and inflation. For next year, he is keen to talk. But that conversation may be tainted.
Only this week, the Greens said that a new Scottish Government plan for housing rents was a “betrayal”.
Labour? Certainly, the ebullient Mr Sarwar is in a co-operative mood. But an alliance of Scotland’s most entrenched rivals seems somewhat problematic.
The Tories? New leader Russell Findlay says he is “all ears”. But he is building a new narrative of his own – that Scotland, post-Reeves, urgently needs tax cuts. He is differentiating his party from both Labour and the SNP.
The UK budget, with its largesse, may just have created more scope for a deal with the Liberal Democrats. How so? Their big ask is likely to be funding for local health care, including mental health. They are drawing up a list of specific projects.
In addition, it now looks likely that the National Care Service, which the LibDems oppose, may be sidelined. Plus both the SNP and the LibDems favour active support for business. There have been deals between the two parties in the past.
Read more
Sometimes, those have been hindered by fundamental disagreement over Scotland’s constitutional future. But is that really in the foreground right now? Perhaps not.
Finally, where next for that new narrative in Scottish politics. Labour seems energised, urging Scottish Ministers to replicate what Mr Sarwar calls a “transformative and game-changing” UK budget. But will the game really change for folk? Or, as Mr Swinney suggests, will those in poverty still find themselves struggling – if the economy fails to revive and companies are reluctant to hire?
This week, the SNP essayed a couple of key points.
Firstly, the FM noted that Labour had retained the two-child cap on benefits. Welfare may emerge as a key issue as the Chancellor seeks to encourage claimants back to work.
Secondly, the SNP tried again with Brexit, quoting statistics which demonstrate the damage done to the UK economy – and accusing Labour of “deepening” that damage by embracing Britain’s exclusion from the EU.
Few dispute – or even mention – the stats. But somehow the issue still lacks traction. The political and popular discourse is elsewhere. I await with awed fascination the emergence of Scotland’s financial plans – and that developing narrative.
Brian Taylor is a former political editor for BBC Scotland and a columnist for The Herald. He cherishes his family, the theatre - and Dundee United FC
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