Starmer lays the ground for SNP domination, Reform in power and indy

Remember: the Tories are in the middle of an absurd race for the party’s leadership, in which Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch seem to be competing for who’s the weirdest and nastiest. Yet they’ve caught up with Labour.

Read more by Neil Mackay

• How left-wing thinkers really view Starmer’s government
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Starmer has the same popularity numbers as Nigel Farage, the man whom half of voters polled say is “personally responsible” for the summer’s far-right riots.

Britain’s biggest villains are making mincemeat of the fool in Number 10. This isn’t just about donations of fancy clothes, or even the winter fuel allowance.

Starmer is being punished for making clear that his promise of "change" was a lie. He’s not offering hope. He’s offering a milksop version of the last 14 years. Rather than culture war austerity, it’s managerial austerity.

But even the managerialism doesn’t last the stress test, as the fiasco around Sue Gray shows.

Ministers can’t even work in a joined-up fashion: the Transport Secretary Louise Haigh attacked P&O Ferries owner DP World, urging a boycott, ahead of a UK investment summit the company was to attend. While Haigh was right in her condemnation, it’s a clear example of Starmer’s inability to lead.

Voters were exhausted after 14 years of Tory madness and declining living standards. All they want is sanity in a government which works to improve their lives.

That’s not happening, and it doesn’t look likely to happen. The winter fuel cut was a clear statement of intent. Rather than launch his administration with an act which said Labour was on the side of the people, Starmer chose to hurt poor pensioners. This isn’t a socially democratic party. It’s a party of the centre-right.

This has huge consequences for Scotland. After the election, it seemed game over for the SNP. But that’s not the story any more. As matters stand - and certainly if Starmer continues on his current trajectory - Anas Sarwar won’t win Bute House, either at the head of a majority government or coalition.

Swing Labour could return to John Swinney's SBP (Image: PA) The most important group in Scotland today is the swing constituency which flipped from SNP to Labour at the last election. These voters had once backed Labour, but migrated to the SNP. They’re moderate about independence. Fundamentally, they just want socially democratic government.

The SNP disappointed them, so they gave Starmer a chance. Now they’re experiencing the worst buyer’s remorse since that lady who bought trainers from Shein online and found a scorpion inside.

The big question is: will this cohort tolerate what Starmer is doing, or will they flip back to the SNP at the next Holyrood election? This is what will define Scotland’s future.

The word used to describe this bunch is "promiscuous": they don’t mind shacking up with whoever seems the more socially democratic.

So can John Swinney persuade them he’s more left than Starmer, as that’s what they want? The answer is "yes". It wouldn’t be hard for an old-school One Nation Tory to present themselves as more left than Starmer, so Swinney doesn’t have a difficult task.

That might bode well for nationalists, but does it bode well for Scotland? The SNP is an exhausted party, without ideas, it has failed in government. Yet, there’s a distinct chance that simply through the failure of Starmer, the SNP will hold on to power.

Starmer is setting the SNP up for hegemony in Scotland. If there’s no centre-left alternative to the SNP, then that promiscuous socially democratic cohort will back the nationalists, albeit whilst gagging.

And in England? Well, Starmer is readying the ground for some monstrous hybrid Tory-Reform coalition. Starmer is repeating mistakes made time and again across Europe of late: he’s caving in to the right on issues like migration and austerity.

By doing so, he validates the right’s talking-points, and allows the far-right, or hard-right, to step forward and say "listen, all these guys are just copying us, if you want the Real McCoy, the full-fat version, vote this way". Welcome to the politics of Austria, France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.

And what do you think the rise of a hard-right government in London might do to the shape of Scottish politics? It would put independence on steroids.

The one sure path to the break-up of Britain is the failure of this current Labour Government. Scots who are either moderate or undecided on independence have given Starmer a chance. If he fails them, they’ll have nowhere left to go but back to the SNP.

The same is true of English voters. They tried the Tories, but the Tories failed them. So they gave Starmer a go, now he’s failing them too. What’s left? The horrific answer is Farage.

Nigel Starmer's Reform UK may cash in on Starmer's failure (Image: PA)

Starmer doesn’t need to do what he’s doing. People are crying out for social democratic change, as that’s the only way to improve the standard of living for millions of Brits who have been broken by 14 years of Tory cruelty and stupidity.

If Britain could borrow to invest in 1945 - when the country was bankrupt - and create the welfare state from scratch, then Starmer can do the same now.

Build houses, build infrastructure: that way you create jobs and growth. Invest in education and health: a smart, healthy workforce is a productive workforce. Nationalise energy so that we’re shielded from the vicissitudes this chaotic world sends our way. Put people first, for pity’s sake. Is that not government’s job?

The social contract between the people and the state must be renewed. We cannot keep going the way we’re going. To do so is the very definition of madness: governments repeating the same mistakes and hoping circumstances will change.

Starmer, in some strange way, could become the most significant political figure the UK has ever seen - but for quite counter-intuitive reasons historically. He could well be the man who gifts total domination of Scotland to the SNP, puts a hard-right government in power in Westminster, and seals the deal on the end of the union.

Neil Mackay is the Herald’s Writer at Large. He’s a multi-award-winning investigative journalist, author of both fiction and non-fiction, and a filmmaker and broadcaster. He specialises in intelligence, security, crime, social affairs, cultural commentary, and foreign and domestic politics