Two quick questions on this quarter-centenary for the Scottish Parliament. What will Russell Findlay stand for as the new Scottish Conservative leader? And does anybody care?
Yes, he is the heir to centuries of tradition. Yes, his party is still the only outfit, since universal suffrage, to win a popular majority in Scotland. (In 1955, thanks for asking.) But they have a rather variegated past. Some historians trace Scottish Tory roots back to the Jacobites. Others reflect that they gamely survived the nineteenth century, despite being routinely gubbed by the Liberals – in the “distant and Whiggish country” of Scotland.
But do the Scottish Tories have any relevance now? Especially since their Westminster counterparts have bickered and partied their way into near-oblivion, replaced by a grateful Labour Party. Mr Findlay secured a convincing victory – and congratulations are undoubtedly due. But there was an understandable note of uncertainty in his acceptance speech.
He thanked his fellow candidates, Murdo Fraser and Meghan Gallacher, stressing he respected and valued them. But this has been at times a vicious and visceral campaign, reflecting fundamental divisions within the party over its role at Holyrood, its policy standpoints and its relationship with UK Tories.
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Mr Findlay blandly described the internal rows as “a healthy engagement with members”. But, when the new leader urged his colleagues to “come together as one united team”, it was delivered in a faintly plaintive tone. This was hope, not confidence.
Indeed, Mr Findlay deployed a tactic commonly used by leaders who find the contemporary atmosphere challenging. They disavow politics. They set themselves outside the harmful, harsh, internal discourse. Mr Findlay appealed over the heads of his fractious party to “scunnered” voters. They felt let down, he said. By all parties, including the one he now leads.
And the former journalist voiced his sympathy, adding: “I’m not a career politician.” Maybe so – but he is going to have to become one, and right sharpish. He now leads the largest Opposition party at Holyrood. Douglas Ross delivered his final performance this week and slipped silently into the shadows. It will be up to Russell Findlay to evince the Conservative position on the issues of the day, including legislation and budgetary matters.
I was particularly struck by two elements. Firstly, relations with the UK Conservatives. Murdo Fraser, who came second, has long advocated that the Scottish Tories should develop a greater degree of autonomy. This time around, he proposed a Commission to examine the issue.
But, as he found in 2011 when he also lost out, to Ruth Davidson, Scottish Conservatives are averse to change. The clue is in the name – which he had, at that point, sought to alter. They are proud to be Tories. They adore the Union. For the most part, they are sceptically tolerant, at best, of devolution. And they want to maintain firm links with the UK party.
General Election defeat provided a “breathing space” for frank discussions. Which, I suppose, is a positive spin. Rishi Sunak will not be replaced as UK leader until November. Which gives Mr Findlay time to adjust. He insisted he would work with the eventual winner, disagreeing where necessary.
Mr Findlay said that the recentWhich brings me to the second intriguing element. Inter-party relationships within the Scottish Parliament. Most notably on the Budget, also due to be addressed in November. Is it at all feasible that the Tories might end up doing some sort of deal with the SNP over the Budget vote? Support? A strategic abstention?
Before you dismiss this out of hand, remember the Parliament from 2007 to 2011, the last period of SNP minority government. At that time, fiscal bargains between the SNP and the Tories were routine. Annual fixtures.
Now you will tell me – and you are right – that times have changed. That the two referendums of 2014 and 2016 further polarised politics in Scotland. That the Tories under Ruth Davidson calculated that there were votes to be gained from positioning themselves as the SNP’s chief antagonists. True. Absolutely true. But look at where the Tories are now. And, equally, contemplate the conundrum confronting the SNP.
Russell Findlay stresses firmly that he is a Unionist. But he says the debate has moved on, that a fretful people expect more than pro-Union rhetoric. They want ideas on the economy, housing, education.
Between 2007 and 2011, the Scottish Tories calculated that they could claim credit from steering the Budget towards their objectives, such as promoting small business. Could they see a comparable opportunity once more?
Remember the dilemma faced by the SNP. They ended the Bute House pact with the Greens, losing their Budget majority in the by-going. Since then, they have shed key Green demands – such as the rail fares deal – in search of urgent in-year savings. But they still need chums to get their Budget carried.
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John Swinney was mischievously unctuous at Holyrood this week, praising fiscal suggestions from the Greens and his “friends in all parts of the chamber”. It was droll, it was amusing. But he knows this is serious. He has to cut a deal. And I believe that John Swinney – and Kate Forbes – might find it more appealing to look to other parties, distinct from their erstwhile Green colleagues in government.
Frankly, they might prefer a party which believes in supporting business, encouraging enterprise and growing the economy. (Mr Findlay, a call on the line from Bute House.) The new Scottish Tory leader stressed it was “slightly premature to be talking about potential deals.” He lampooned the FM for “flirting with the Greens.” But he did not rule out the prospect entirely.
Indeed, he said that it could be advantageous to contemplate “the best possible deal” in Scotland’s interests and those of his party. The overall aim, he said, would be to defend “decent, mainstream Scotland and the values of hard work, self-reliance and fairness for taxpayers”. He characterised his approach as “common sense”. I could not help thinking of John Major getting “back to basics”. That did not end well but perhaps Mr Findlay – as a self-declared political outsider – will have more luck.
Either way, the Scottish Tories still matter.
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