Many argue it was the currency question that lost the Yes campaign the referendum.
In the first 2014 leaders TV debate, Alistair Darling accused Alex Salmond of “guesswork, fingers crossed and blind faith”. Salmond’s lack of clarity on the currency question gave Better Together a stick to beat the Yes campaign with. And they did. Repeatedly.
Ten years on, the currency question remains largely unresolved. While the Scottish Government’s 2022 paper finally acknowledged the need for a Scottish pound “as soon as practicable” post-independence, their understanding of what is “practicable” seems dangerously out of touch.
If Scotland is to ever become independent, then the currency question must be answered clearly and confidently.
My own journey to supporting Scottish independence was no doubt influenced by my childhood in the Isle of Man. For this ancient self-governing crown dependency, the Manx Pound is a positive statement of self-determination that provides an ability to invest in what’s important to the population, most recently issuing a £400m bond, at 1.625% interest, to buy a new ferry for the nationalised transport system and commit to 100% green electricity by 2030 for the nationalised state utility provider.
Having seen the power of an independent monetary and fiscal policy on the Isle of Man, the idea that Scotland – the home of Adam Smith – might hesitate over embracing the opportunities presented by an independent currency seemed ludicrous. After all, with a Manx population of just 90,000, that £400m bond is, on a population basis, equivalent of Scotland borrowing £24.5billion.
While the current financial difficulties faced by the Scottish Government, and their lack of ownership of their own fiscal mismanagement, illustrates that devolution alone cannot solve Scotland’s growing economic challenges, with 40% of Scotland’s population still in favour of independence, the currency question needs answered.
Scotland is hamstrung by its inability to borrow on the scale necessary to address its long-term relative economic decline. It is also becoming clear that the new UK Labour Government, fatally constrained by its own fiscal rules, will be incapable of stimulating economic growth.
Independence offers Scotland a way out of this literally hopeless fiscal scenario. But in order to achieve real change the future government of an independent Scotland must be able to borrow in its own currency. This requires a Scottish Central Bank and an inter-bank payments system for the Scottish Pound to be in place. Keeping sterling, even for a short period, would be disastrous.
The work involved in doing this is not particularly difficult, but it does require commitment and a little time; our research suggests perhaps three years.
Later this month the Scottish Currency Group will host our first in-person conference. Our goal is to lay the groundwork for a future Scottish currency and a Scottish Reserve Bank, to provide commitment, thinking and time to this most important topic.
Gathering experts like Dr Jón Egilsson, former chair of Iceland’s Central Bank, and Malan Johansen, CEO of the Faroese Landsbanki, the conference will bring international insight and real-world experience to bear on Scotland’s fiscal challenges. With high-profile economists like Professors Richard Murphy and David Blanchflower also contributing, this is more than an academic exercise. It’s a roadmap to making a Scottish pound a reality—and a warning to those who think independence can succeed without it.
The achievements of the Faroese Landbanski put the Scottish Government to shame. To support the economic diversification the Faroe Islands has prioritised investments in communications and transport including a new road tunnel between Tórshavn and Eysturoy – infrastructure priorities that Scotland’s rural communities may well look upon with envy.
One of the speakers I’m most looking forward to is Assistant Professor Thibault Laurentjoye of Aalborg University, who has recently advised on currency options for an independent Wales. Commissioned by the Plaid Cymru Senedd Group to inform evidence to the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, his detailed paper begs the question if Wales is scrutinising this issue, why is an SNP-led Scottish Government not?
While independence remains a live issue in Scottish politics, it’s essential we think pragmatically about what it would really mean, starting with currency.
Independence offers Scotland a path out of an increasingly bleak economic future, one marked by underinvestment and stagnation. But without control over its own currency, Scotland’s hands will remain tied, its potential for transformative change left unfulfilled.
Fiscal stagnation over the last ten years suggests that waiting for cautious politicians to lead on this issue is a mistake.
The Dunfermline conference is a clarion call to anyone who believes in a truly independent Scotland. Our intention is for it to pave the way for the establishment of a Scottish Monetary Research Institute, which will be funded through private donations.
The Scottish Currency Group’s conference is an important step towards ensuring that when Scotland does achieve independence, it can do so on its own terms, with the tools it needs to flourish.
Dr Tim Rideout is convenor of The Scottish Currency Group. Its conference takes place on 21-22 September at Carnegie Conference Centre, Dunfermline. The event will also be livestreamed. Tickets are available from Eventbrite.
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