When the Tories mess up, the Lib Dems have a real opportunity

Nonetheless, party conference singalongs are on the same spectrum of behaviour as falling off a paddle board in Windermere, and there is now little doubt that the famous Lib Dem campaign stunts worked rather well for Sir Ed at July’s election, not only putting him on the news agenda, but also elevating the issues he was addressing to a level which would otherwise have been unattainable for this particular party.

So, I understand why Sir Ed found himself channelling Neil Diamond in Brighton and I am prepared to look beyond, and instead look more broadly at what the rise of the Lib Dems may mean for politics in Scotland and across the UK.

The news agenda, understandably, has been focussed on the new Labour government of Sir Keir Starmer, and increasingly on the early problems experienced by it and by Sir Keir personally. Second in line for attention has been the defenestrated Tories, in the midst of a leadership contest which still has the thick end of six weeks to run.

But we need to talk about the Lib Dems. Political realignment in the UK is very rare indeed; we have been in effect a two-party state, with power oscillating between Labour and the Conservatives, since the First World War over a hundred years ago.

However, political realignment does happen, and at the same time as the Lib Dems find themselves, suddenly, with its biggest ever haul of seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives find themselves not all that far ahead and with a dilemma over which way to move next.

The Tories are highly likely to move in the wrong direction. As night follows day, political parties which suffer a large defeat then misdiagnose its cause. Tory members largely believe they lost because they failed to sufficiently address small boats in the English Channel, and they are almost certain to vote for the candidate – Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch – who will align them most closely with the platform of Nigel Farage and his Reform UK party.

Of course, there is a constituency for this form of right-wing populism, and we have seen its success across Europe. However, our first-past-the-post voting system is likely to place a natural cap on how much it can advance here.

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Much more likely, therefore, is that the Conservatives will enter the next election on a platform which lacks electoral credibility, further opening the door to a Liberal Democrat party which just may have the chance to become His Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition.

They still have a long way to travel. The party’s support is skewed towards the south and south-west, with only pockets of seats elsewhere, including in Scotland. In order to take themselves to the next level, they will have to reject their more frivolous instincts, both in perception and in policy, and adopt a more philosophically consistent and credible position.

In short, they need to put themselves where the voters are. The party already has a set of guiding principles which can elevate them – it is called the Orange Book. Written 20 years ago by a group of young Liberal Democrat MPs, who could broadly be described as socially to the centre-left and economically to the centre-right, the Orange Book stressed the role of the private sector in solving public problems, and could fairly be considered a centre-ground, or common-ground, political position.

The party has largely failed to adopt the Orange Book wholesale; it should now, because that is precisely the gap which will be vacated by the Tories (moving to the populist right) and Labour (which campaigned from the centre but which is under constant pressure to govern from the left).

Filling that ideological gap would be a unique selling point for Sir Ed Davey, but not his only one. The party has curiously shied away from the other - its local, national and European constitutional views - in the belief that there was no electoral gold at the end of those rainbows, or at least that the electoral gold would only emerge under a system of proportional representation.

(Image: Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey arriving on stage to give his keynote speech)

They are not entirely wrong. Nonetheless, their positions are compelling and polling shows they are supported by majorities in each case. They believe in closer alignment with the EU; they should embrace that, now, because the people do, too, but no other UK-wide party does. They believe in a federalised UK, sitting somewhere in between independence and the devolved status-quo; again, this has widespread support amongst the people but no other political party supports it. And they believe in localism including more power for local authorities and directly elected mayors; Labour is flirting with this but the Lib Dems are already there, if only they would say so!

Moving decisively in this direction could yield rapid benefits in the next Scottish Parliament elections, in May 2026. Stuck on four seats, Alex Cole-Hamilton’s team could triple or quadruple on a good night, returning them to the king-making position they enjoyed a couple of decades ago.

The Scottish message could be compelling. Movement towards the EU – check. An enhanced Scotland within the UK – check. Decentralisation within Scotland – check. And on this latter point, critically, the hinterland to rewire the relationship between energy developers, local communities in remote and rural areas, and government and its agencies, which is probably the key impediment to unlocking the long-term local and national prosperity which our geographic energy lottery win offers us.

Mock the Liberal Democrats if you wish. History may vindicate you. But there is no other party in Scottish or UK politics, right now, with such a scale of opportunity.