The new Labour Government has been in full spin cycle since taking power but, two-and-a-half months on from its election victory, it has yet to come up with anything that suggests it is going to boost the UK’s growth meaningfully.
Quite the opposite, in fact, with its noisy declarations about the poor state of the public finances and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s warning about “tough” choices evoking memories of David Cameron and George Osborne arriving on the scene in 2010 with their ill-judged austerity.
It was interesting, though not surprising, to hear Ian Murray stick very much with this party line from Labour and Sir Keir when the Secretary of State for Scotland addressed hundreds of guests at the Confederation of British Industry’s Scottish dinner in Glasgow last week. Mr Murray ladled it on thick when it came to talking about the grim situation Labour had inherited from the Tories, and his portrayal of difficult days ahead would surely have done nothing to lift the spirits of those who would like to see less miserable times for the Scottish and broader UK economies.
Sir Keir continues to look very much like a man without a plan for growth. He has ruled out rejoining the European single market, which would provide an enormous and straightforward fillip to growth if it could be achieved. And he has tied Labour up with the failed Conservatives’ fiscal rules.
Meanwhile, Labour’s tone towards the UK oil and gas sector has seemed unduly hostile, and its pledge to end new North Sea exploration licences has looked naïve. After all, recent years have shown up the UK’s woeful lack of energy security and no one should be in any doubt about the huge economic importance of the North Sea. This sector is particularly important in a Scottish context.
All of this lamentable backdrop made some miserable UK gross domestic product data published last week all the more dispiriting to read.
The data from the Office for National Statistics showed the UK economy stagnated for a second consecutive month in July.
Economists had forecast month-on-month growth of 0.2%.
The services sector grew by 0.1% month-on-month in July, following a 0.1% decrease in June, but production output fell by 0.8% and the construction sector contracted by 0.4%.
It would obviously be difficult for anyone to put a positive spin on these numbers.
And, to be fair to the Prime Minister, the weak GDP figures for the last two months cannot be attributed to Labour, given the General Election was only on July 4.
However, the data suggest Sir Keir might have far less of a fortuitous tailwind from the easing of UK interest rates and from inflation’s decline from spectacularly high levels than might have been expected.
And the big problem is that it has been impossible to shake the notion, looking at Labour’s plans, that, when it comes to the prospects for economic growth, the new boss looks just the same as the old boss. And that is obviously not something that is good.
There might be lots of trumpeting from Labour about its plans for GB Energy and the National Wealth Fund but these are really not big deals in the overall scheme of things.
Labour’s decisions to embrace both the fiscal constraints and the Conservatives’ hard Brexit are, on the other hand, very major ones, and most detrimental.
And policies that might provide a meaningful boost to the UK economy remain conspicuous by their absence.
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Some people, notably Brexiters, have made much of 0.7% growth in UK GDP in the opening three months of this year and 0.6% expansion in the second quarter, as they have remained determined to thumb their noses at some of our European neighbours.
However, the longer-term context is important here.
The UK economic picture remains one of protracted malaise.
And we should not forget that the UK economy fell into recession in the final three months of last year with a second consecutive quarterly fall in GDP. Scotland avoided this ignominy.
So the UK economy’s performance in the first and second quarters represented a bit of a rebound from a very weak position.
Economists highlighted the importance of boosting UK economic growth in the wake of last week’s GDP figures.
They also flagged the economy’s protracted troubles.
Rob Morgan, chief investment analyst at stockbroker Charles Stanley, noted “the third quarter has got off to an inauspicious start with no increase for July compared with June, which was also a flat month”.
Mr Morgan added: “The UK economy is not exactly setting pulses racing. With inflation now much nearer its 2% target and unemployment remaining low at 4.1%, there is at least some stability in the face of what are still restrictive interest rates. However, it’s a picture of overall stagnation and the Government needs to think long and hard about how to kickstart a healthier growth trajectory.”
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He observed that, “although the economy has been treading an underwhelming path over the past couple of years, it has been suppressed by high interest rates”, adding: “It now stands to benefit from inflation coming under closer control and a reduction in borrowing costs as the Bank of England slowly reduces base rates.”
And Mr Morgan declared: “All else being equal, business confidence should be gathering pace and stimulating economic activity.”
However, he warned that “with inflation now falling globally, perhaps the greater fear is a political one”.
This is clearly a worry.
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And Mr Morgan also hit the nail on the head in terms of Labour’s tone on the economy since it won power.
He said: “With the Government speaking in a very cautious tone about the economy and warning of ‘difficult decisions’ around tax and spending, it is harder for businesses to retain confidence about the environment going forward.”
Confidence, while not everything, is clearly important at times of economic fragility. And Labour is certainly not exuding optimism.
Analysing the mood music from the new Government, Mr Morgan observed: “In the build-up to the election there were plenty of encouraging noises within the Labour campaign around encouraging growth while remaining fiscally responsible. The manifesto declared, ‘Sustained economic growth is the only route to improving the prosperity of our country and the living standards of working people.’. However, the positivity and growth mindset seem [to] have dried up in recent weeks with the narrative dominated by the many difficulties faced.”
He added: “Clearly there are some significant structural problems to deal with. But solving the economic ones could be the key to helping with the others. Weak levels of investment and company formation alongside low labour force participation are impediments to economic expansion - and therefore growing the tax base for future spending. The new Government need to tackle these as a priority, but they have so far received little attention alongside the lengthening list of other issues.”
Mr Morgan is spot on in contrasting some of the narrative from Labour in the run-up to the election with what has ensued.
And, indeed, while you would expect Labour to highlight the economic damage the Conservatives have caused, and doing so is justified, the degree of negativity of the new Government has been surprising.
It is also worth reiterating that Labour is adopting fully the hard Brexit of the Conservatives which has so damaged the economy, and will continue to do so.
Neither this big mistake nor the new Government’s hand-wringing over the public finances do anything to instil hope about the prospects for the UK economy.
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