I’m struck by how retrospective and negative the thoughts of pro-independence politicians and activists have been, as we conclude a week of reflection on the 2014 independence referendum and its effects on Scottish politics and society,

Pro-independence figures have spent a decade insisting that their defeat was a battle lost in a war they were sure of winning. If that were true, I would have expected them to approach this year’s anniversary as an opportunity to galvanise their movement, not publicly reminisce about past glories, rue missed opportunities, and assign blame.

But that is precisely what much, perhaps most, of the commentary from the Yes camp has been composed of this week. Much of the rest has consisted of group therapy rather than serious analysis. Where pro-independence figures have looked to the future, they have often been wish casting with predictions that, for example, Scotland will be independent within a decade without a plan to get there.

Frankly, I can’t blame them. This is a movement that has spent the past ten years being marched up the hill with promises of imminent referendums that the Scottish Government never had the power to hold. Indeed, many of the supposedly missed opportunities were a mirage. The critical error made by the independence movement’s leadership after the 2016 EU referendum was believing that the political opportunity structure had opened up at all.

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The independence movement is stuck driving in circles in a strategic cul-de-sac for myriad reasons, and the actions of its leadership – the SNP’s leadership in particular – have contributed. But the fact is that they have failed to hold another referendum not because they lacked the ability to win power but because the power to do so was never up for grabs.

The structure of the British state necessitates winning a UK General Election to have the power to hold a referendum on independence. That kind of power is out of reach of any minority national group, no matter how talented the leadership of such a secessionist movement might be.

Nobody in the independence movement's leadership has advanced a convincing answer to this conundrum. Even those who have tried to do so over the past couple of weeks have been tellingly retrospective in their arguments.

Both Alex Salmond and his former Chief of Staff, Geoff Aberdein, among many others in both the SNP and the Alba Party, have argued that the independence movement’s leading political parties need to return to demonstrating competence in government – after all, that’s what drove the independence movement’s successes in 2014.

But I think this argument is flawed. While the SNP won an enormous victory in 2011 on the back of that strategy, support for independence did not grow during their first term. In fact, support for independence did not seriously shift until the middle of 2014, growing from 32% to 40% from February to early September, and reaching an average of just above 44% by the day of the referendum.

In the entirety of the SNP’s first seven years and four months in office, demonstrating “competent government”, support for independence only began to grow in the last seven months, and a third of that shift happened in the final weeks of the campaign. Perceived competence may have been a necessary condition for that growth in secessionist sentiment, but it was far from sufficient.

Better Together, backed by Labour and the Tories, defeated the campaign for independenceBetter Together, backed by Labour and the Tories, defeated the campaign for independence (Image: Jeff J Mitchell)

None of these reflections have convincingly addressed, in addition to the question of how to secure a vote, the question of how to build a consistent, clear majority in favour of independence – simply governing competently won’t cut it, not that they currently are.

These two problems are ultimately two sides of the same coin. The independence movement got to where it is now by securing a referendum and using that platform to persuade. That won’t happen again – they must instead persuade before securing another vote.

How to do so, if mere governing competence is insufficient, electoral wheezes like the ‘de facto referendum’ are met with scorn, and the campaigning conditions that generated momentum in 2014 will not return any time soon?

Well, sometimes to move forward one must first take a step backwards. This year has also seen a great deal of reflection on devolution, marking the 25th anniversary of the convening of the Scottish Parliament, and if there is one thing I take away from those reflections, it is how stagnant the process of devolution and reform of Scotland’s governing institutions in general has become.

For a nation in which so much of enormous consequence has happened since the Scottish Parliament's opening, the way in which we govern is staggeringly unchanged.

The independence movement’s focus on independence in totality is partly to blame for that stagnation, I think. They have, too often, treated devolution as a political trap, but it needn’t be. Indeed, more power for the Scottish Parliament, and greater reform of our political and public institutions, is where the majority of the public are, including most independence supporters.

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Rather than demanding secession, the independence movement may be better served by pursuing independence from the rest of the UK in more limited and specific ways, gently nudging Scotland towards greater independence in areas where they would have public support, and gradually diverging from the rest of the UK in the process.

Re-engagement with devolution and political and public service reform within Scotland would put the independence movement back on the front foot, rather than reeling as they have been in recent years. And the greater the divergence with the rest of the UK, the more divergence is normalised and the lower the opportunity cost of complete secession will become, making those arguments easier to win.

As I’ve written elsewhere, opportunities to change minds will open up in the long-term. What the independence movement – which should, perhaps, rethink that moniker – needs in advance of such opportunities is momentum.

It won’t get that by complaining about unfair constitutional rules, arguing about secessionist process, its leaders playing blame games, or by continuing to bang its head against a brick wall. Reflection is fine in its place, but if those who hope to make Scotland an independent country are to make any progress, they need fresh thinking, even if that means committing what some would consider political heresy.

Mark McGeoghegan is a Glasgow University researcher of nationalism and contentious politics and an Associate Member of the Centre on Constitutional Change. He can be found on BlueSky @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social