For the more hysterical of the Scottish Government’s critics, a survey on businesses’ views of how devolved income tax policy has affected them might have come as something of a surprise.

If you were to believe this overwrought contingent, you would think that the greater income tax burden for higher earners in Scotland that has resulted from devolved income tax policy had created some kind of economic Armageddon and is killing off business.

Clearly, from the official data, anyone can see that it has not.

However, the narrative that it has is a sticky one, so it has been good this week to see some proper objective analysis of the effect on Scottish businesses of devolved income tax policy, based on a survey of more than 300 of them by the University of Strathclyde’s highly regarded Fraser of Allander Institute.

The most interesting finding from this, especially given the narrative of doom and gloom, is that 57% of the businesses surveyed believe the Scottish Government’s particular income tax policy has had either “little” or “no” impact on them.

This is not really a great surprise, given the economic data and business survey evidence for Scotland has compared favourably enough with that for many other parts of the UK.

However, the more hysterical critics of the Scottish Government are a noisy bunch so the findings of the Fraser of Allander Institute survey might come as a shock to many who have been taken in by this hullabaloo.

That is not to say that differences in income tax policy between Scotland and the rest of the UK, and the effects of these such as they are, should not be kept under careful consideration.

A minority of businesses said that Scottish Government income tax policy was having either a “fair amount” of impact or a “significant” effect on operations.

However, it was interesting to see some of the survey respondents point out the benefits of a greater tax take for the likes of crucial public spending on education and health.

So what, exactly, did the survey show?

It revealed that 28% of Scottish businesses had seen no impact from Scottish income tax policy, while 29% felt only "a little” effect. Meanwhile, 17% of respondents experienced a "fair amount" of impact, with another 17% stating that the policy had a "significant" effect on their operations.

The findings are quite striking. While the 34% flagging a “significant” or “fair amount” of impact should not be ignored, the 57% seeing “little” or “no” effect is a much larger camp.

And we should bear in mind that personal political views might also play a part in the survey findings. Some might see the likely influence of political views as making it all the more surprising that the combined proportion declaring a “fair amount” of impact or “significant” effect was not greater than it was, particularly given the volume levels of the protestations over Scotland’s devolved income tax policy.

Read more: Impact of Scottish Government income tax decisions on businesses revealed

The differential between the income tax burden on higher earners in Scotland and the rest of the UK was increased further in the Scottish Budget last December, for the current 2024/25 tax year. This move triggered warnings from various quarters that some taxpayers would move away from Scotland because of the greater burden north of the Border.

Clearly, a view must be taken on what the appropriate level of divergence is, to help achieve the Scottish Government’s laudable aim of social justice while also ensuring the economic growth required to deliver this is not hampered.

There is no sign yet that growth is being dampened by devolved income tax policy, given the Scottish economy’s performance relative to other parts of the UK and net inward migration to Scotland from other parts of the UK in recent years.

However, a watchful eye is needed, based on a proper analysis of the cold facts and figures as opposed to dramatic political posturing.

In this regard, the Fraser of Allander Institute’s survey is a valuable piece of work, ensuring the views of a large number of businesses are not drowned out by noisy lobbying.

It was interesting to hear Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Gaelic Kate Forbes’s views on devolved income tax policy, in an exclusive interview with The Herald in June.

She said then that the greater income tax burden for higher earners in Scotland relative to the rest of the UK will be kept “under review”, taking into account “how easy it is for taxpayers to shift”.

Read more: Scottish income tax burden for higher earners 'under review'

Ms Forbes, when asked by The Herald in June if she thought there had been too great a divergence in the income tax burden for higher earners in Scotland compared with those elsewhere in the UK as things stood, replied: “No but I think we keep it under review.

“I was…public finance minister when income tax was first devolved and I recall at the time us making it clear that we would follow the Adam Smith principles of taxation and one of the commitments that we made was to always keep the divergence under review to understand the behavioural impact because I want to be independent but we are devolved and that has implications for how easy it is for taxpayers to shift.”

However, Ms Forbes also flagged figures from HM Revenue & Customs showing more people had come to Scotland from the rest of the UK than had moved in the opposite direction, against the backdrop of devolved income tax. And she highlighted the part “progressive” taxation played in funding the £26.70-a-week Scottish child payment for lower-income households north of the Border amid UK austerity.

We will have to wait until later this year to see what Ms Forbes and her Cabinet colleagues think is best on the Scottish income tax front.

However, what seems clear is that the Deputy First Minister is aware of the issues which should be considered.

Notably, the Fraser of Allander Institute survey showed plainly that, within the business community, there are those who see benefits as well as negatives in the Scottish Government’s decisions on income tax to date.

The research institute said key issues identified from firms' responses in the survey included recruitment and retention, wage pressures, and competitiveness and investment.

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Going through each of these three areas in turn, it added: “Many businesses say they are struggling to attract and retain talent, citing higher taxes as a cause of employee dissatisfaction, leading to increased wage demands and reluctance to relocate to or remain in Scotland.

“A number of respondents reported raising wages to compensate for the reduced take-home pay of employees due to the higher tax rates.

“Some businesses perceive Scotland’s higher tax regime as a competitive disadvantage compared to the rest of the UK, with a few considering moving operations or investments south of the Border.”

However, the Fraser of Allander Institute also highlighted “neutral or positive responses”.

It noted "many firms [are] telling us there was no impact from the change”, adding: “Others recognised that the higher tax rates play a role in funding public services in Scotland, such as healthcare and education.”

Mairi Spowage, director of the Fraser of Allander Institute, summed it up well.

She said: “While most firms report minimal impact from the current tax policy, a notable minority are experiencing challenges, especially in areas like staffing and investment.

"This divide underlines that taxation is a particularly contentious issue, and ties into the discussion happening across Scotland about how diverging rates of income tax are affecting the economy.”

This is undoubtedly a contentious issue.

So it is good to see some facts and figures from the Fraser of Allander Institute on it, and a range of views laid out in a most non-hysterical way. These should help tune out some of the unhelpful ruckus from those people, far from all of them in business, who seem keen to moan about the Scottish Government at every possible opportunity.