SNP collapse hasn’t translated into collapsing Independence support

What if you instead told the same people the same thing the following day? They’d have taken it as read that Scotland was returning to pre-IndyRef normality, and there was no way the losing side could be anything but broken.

The possibility that the SNP were soon to deliver one of the most astonishing blowouts in democratic history was yet to emerge. The idea the following Holyrood election would see a stunning Conservative revival, leaving Labour in the wilderness of third place, would have been laughable.

Throw in Brexit, the SNP’s 2017 setback, the year of three Prime Ministers, and global events like the (first?) Trump Presidency, COVID-19 pandemic and Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and these 10 years have been a dizzying rollercoaster. Who could have foreseen the transformations in Scottish politics, never mind everything else?

In short, it’s hard to say in the moment what the future has in store. Claiming certainty about what’s going to happen next purely on the basis of what happened in July’s election is a mug’s game. That doesn’t mean it isn’t worthwhile thinking about where we are right now and what challenges may be ahead for both sides.

One thing that is certain right now is that SNP collapse hasn’t translated into collapsing Independence support. It’s true that the Union has maintained an advantage, despite a spike for Independence after the Brexit Referendum and for a year starting earlier 2020 where it was in the lead. However, overall support for the Union remains a bit lower than in 2014.

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Indeed, looking at Ballot Box Scotland averaging, the figures at time of writing are identical to May 2021: 48% say they’d vote No, 44.6% Yes, the remainder unsure. Excluding the latter gives a hauntingly familiar 52% to 48% advantage for the Union, 6% narrower than the referendum.

That’s in spite of party support shifting dramatically. On the more proportional and thus representative regional vote at Holyrood, 2021 saw 50% for obviously Pro-Independence parties, and 48% for clearly Pro-Union parties. Current polling suggests it’s something like 57% for the Union bloc versus 40% for their Independentist counterparts.

It therefore seems likely that the SNP are on track to be ejected from government come 2026. That’s not a surprise if you consider that they’ll have been in charge for a whopping 19 years by then. Precious few governments manage that unscathed. It doesn’t help their chances that, as is so often the case, bitter infighting has become the norm.

They may find defeat may be a blessing in disguise though. Trying to contain the boundless enthusiasm of a movement within the very tightly bounded arena of devolved party politics was always going to be difficult. Sure, it gave the SNP an impressive run of victories, but these were constitutionally toothless and left many 2014 Yes voters disillusioned.

Opposition may be an uncomfortable re-adjustment, but it’s an opportunity for renewal, and a more credible position to point a finger from and say “see, we were right all along”, even if that requires missteps from the UK Government that aren’t guaranteed. It also needs the SNP to loosen their grip over the prospectus for Independence rather than viewing other parties and groups as dangerous splitters.

At the risk of getting a bit further into policy territory I usually stay away from, they must also remember that the primary support base for Independence is young and to the left-of-centre. Indulging self-serving recommendations of the middle-aged and right-of-centre, many of whom outside the party will never back Independence, is unlikely to be a winning formula.

The corollary to this is that having picked up many disillusioned 2014 Yes voters, Labour has a serious opportunity to draw them over to the Union too. With potentially co-ordinated Labour governments at both levels from 2026, Devolution may function more smoothly than it has in 20 years, delivering much-desired improvements to public services.

If paired with strengthened Devolution, as those current Independence supporters want, making Holyrood less vulnerable to Westminster shocks including when Labour inevitably return to opposition, they may be on to a winner. The last thing they need is the idea that the Union only works when Labour are in charge to take hold, because that’s as good as saying it doesn’t work.

Allan Faulds of Ballot Box Scotland (Image: BBS)

Challenges nonetheless remain. I’ve previously written for the Herald about how current Union supporters largely don’t back further Devolution. That means there’s a tricky balance to strike. It also seems to me that the focus has largely been on making the case against Independence rather than for the Union, a subtle but important distinction. There were signs of complacency even before this year’s election.

I’m often surprised by how unconcerned some are that Independence support hasn’t fallen below 2014, as if near-half dissatisfaction with the Union is sustainable. If the Pro-Union side allows itself to be lulled into a false sense that the constitutional debate is over and there’s no need to build a distinctive, positive and inviting case for the Union, they may come to regret it.

A decade ago, voters may have predicted a Labour victory at this year’s election, but they’d have been stunned at what happened in between. Looking a decade ahead, who knows what will seem obvious in retrospect, and what shocking twists we’ll experience on the way? This anniversary isn’t an end to this story, but rather the turning of a page.

Allan Faulds runs Ballot Box Scotland which provides data and analysis from Scottish polling and elections