TWO things you can say for certain about Tony Blair’s new book, out this week. One, there will be no Harry Potter-style midnight queues at bookshops to get hold of a copy. Two: it will not contain a dedication to Keir Starmer.

No “For Keir, on whose shoulder the hand of history now rests”, or “To Keir, from one pretty straight sort of guy to another”. Says the author of the snappily titled On Leadership: Lessons for the 21st Century by Tony Blair: “This book, it’s not written for Keir.” Charming.

Everybody got that? You can understand the sensitivities, on both sides, over any claims of a close friendship. Recess and honeymoon over, Starmer is now in the driving seat proper. Heaven forbid Mr Blair should be one of those old bores from politics past who jumps in the back and starts advising on routes. He has far more important things to be getting on at the Tony Blair Institute for Intergalactic Peace and Holidays on Nice Yachts, or whatever it is called.

Then again, the Fettes old boy can’t help himself. In an interview with the Observer’s Andrew Rawnsley to plug the book, Blair’s praise for Starmer was unbounded one minute and ever so subtly qualified the next. On the summer rioting, he said Starmer “handled it as well as it could be handled” but “I give him full marks for it”. And on his not quite as big as Blair’s landslide victory: “I thought pulling it off was massive, but I have to say he has.”

There’s not a lot of wriggle room for those determined to make mischief, but it is there, and anyone who spent years tiptoeing around Gordon Brown, as Blair did, would have known it.

Starmer is aware of the dangers of being bracketed too closely with Blair. Being in the company of Labour’s three-time General Election winner has its advantages, but the dangers are obvious too. First and last there’s the “I” word, as in Iraq.

For Blair, it’s all about the “L” word, legacy. “There are some people who want to make the legacy all about Iraq and that’s all I ever did,” he says. “The day I left office in 2007, we had improving public services, a strong economy, we were America’s closest ally, we’d won the bid for the Olympics, we had peace in Northern Ireland, and $2 to the pound.”

Sounds like a grand place to be, doesn’t it? How long ago it all seems. There is no mention of the fundamental breach of trust between government and governed that took place over Iraq. No acknowledgment that this, for many people, is where the rot set in. No doubt that he could have been wrong.

No wonder those around Starmer want to keep a polite distance. Yet try as he might to escape Blair’s shadow, Starmer will inevitably be defined by and compared to his predecessor. In large part this is because the public does not know Starmer well.

The General Election vote was more about getting the Tories out than it was voting Starmer in. We know something of his past, most of it courtesy of Tom Baldwin’s biography, but less about where Starmer is heading, as is inevitably the case. As a leader, to quote Blair quoting Shimon Peres, it is not clear if Starmer is going to be in the history book or the visitors’ book.

Starmer has taken some moves out of the Blair playbook. There is the being “tough” approach, summed up in Starmer’s scrapping of a universal winter fuel payment. As one campaigner against the move says, this seems increasingly like a “virility test” to demonstrate the Government’s resolve.

It is an odd hill on which a Labour prime minister should choose to plant a flag. His ministers’ justification for doing so went from weak to laughable at the weekend with Lucy Powell, the Commons leader, saying it had been done to prevent a run on the pound. So there you have it: this winter, your average pensioner in Scotland can warm themselves on the notion that they are shivering in a good cause - keeping the pound safe.

Starmer is also like Blair in bringing his advisers from opposition into government, all part of his plan to “fix the foundations”. Blair’s advice on this is to tackle the big stuff early on, but don’t get bogged down with process. “My experience is that there is no reform of the system that is going to deliver you big change,” says Blair. He is probably correct.

On Scotland, Starmer is adopting Blair’s attitude of laissez-faire until you need something. The party’s Scottish leader has made it easier for London to do this by slipping into branch manager mode on the winter fuel payment and the two-child benefit cap, but that cannot last forever.

In Anas Sarwar’s favour are the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections which, for the benefit of any doubters in Downing Street, started yesterday with Shona Robison’s declaration that everything is Westminster’s fault. No points for originality but the message has been effective in the past.

The 2026 elections, falling where they do in the calendar, will be a crucial test for Labour. Starmer could be as strong as Blair at that point, having laid the foundations for a second term and more, or his premiership will be well on its way to being a one-term blip.

For Starmer, there has been no Blair-style shift from Bambi to Stalin. He remains an unknown quantity, and so far that is working in his favour. He was a buttoned-up Leader of the Opposition who was lacking in flair and brooked no internal dissent, and now he’s a Prime Minister with the same qualities.

Either way, he needs no advice from Blair, who will have to look elsewhere for his shot at redemption. He will never be forgiven until he acknowledges he was wrong on Iraq. It does not matter how many books on leadership he publishes or speeches he makes, there is the legacy he thinks he should have, and there is reality.

Amol Rajan Interviews Tony Blair, tonight, 4 September, 7pm, BBC2. Catch up on iPlayer