“The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics.”

I’m always reminded of this quote by Thomas Sowell, the famous US economist and philosopher, whenever I hear politicians blaming each other for the impoverished state of the economy.

Economics and politics - like much else in life - are governed by cycles and, much as we would all like the band to continue playing on indefinitely, every few years the music stops and we’re left wondering where all the money has gone.

This is such a moment when, we’re led to believe, a hitherto secret “black hole” has suddenly been discovered in the public finances, and the blame game is now in full swing.

Labour blames the Tories and the SNP for racking up huge deficits, north and south of the Border, with nothing to show for them.

The Tories blame Labour, for trying to pin the impact of their early spending decisions on their predecessors, and the SNP for years of lavish spending and financial mismanagement.

The SNP started out blaming the Tories for selling Scotland short, during more than a decade of self-inflicted austerity, but has now turned its fire on Labour.

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Finance Secretary Shona Robison’s budget statement today sparked a fresh round of recrimination as she signalled yet more misery for voters, and further ammunition for critics of the Scottish Government.

 As we embark on what the SNP predicts will be a whole new era of Labour-inflicted austerity, who should we believe and what, if any, is the most effective route to growth and prosperity?

The problem for the close to 50% of the electorate who believe that Scotland can only meet its full potential through national self-determination, is that the SNP - until now, the main route to independence - has been shown to have feet of clay when it comes to managing public finances.

If the party has made such a pig’s ear of things with limited control over a handful of taxes, what damage would it do if it was in full command of the fiscal levers, sceptics ask.

Nationalist ministers simultaneously complain that they are forced to operate in a largely fixed budget, constrained by Westminster-imposed limits, while trumpeting their success in having delivered a balanced budget every year in which they have been in power.

Decoded, this means that in order to pay for the lavish handouts afforded to Scots but not to people in other parts of the UK - including free prescriptions, free university education, subsidised travel and frozen council tax rates - they have been able to hike taxes to unprecedented levels.

Few can argue that successive SNP administrations have created the most punitive fiscal area in the UK, in return for providing dire levels of public service, in particular failing health and education systems.

The most damning indictment of the current nationalist administration is that it doesn’t understand the relationship between of tax rises and subsequent human behaviour.

Ministers believe the new 45% tax band on income between £75,000 and £125,000 will generate an additional £10 0million in revenues. The Fraser of Allander Institute suggests that behavioural changes triggered by the measure mean it may collect as little as £39m.

While tax and spend policies may appeal to the current First Minister’s socially progressive sensibilities, the reality is that they have limited real-world benefits. Such a lack of understanding begs the question about what reality the SNP inhabits when predicting the fiscal landscape of an independent Scotland.

It was not always like this. The SNP’s fiscally liberal agenda dates back to the early 1990s when its newly elected leader, Alex Salmond, reasoned that the party could only achieve electoral success by tacking left, to compete on the same political ground as the Scottish Labour Party.

 Prior to 1979, the SNP were known as “Tartan Tories”. In that year, 11 nationalist MPs supported the then leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition, Margaret Thatcher, in a vote of no-confidence in the Labour government of James Callaghan.

The biggest threat to the Scottish economy today is that successive tax rises will inhibit investment, creating a perception that Scotland is hostile to enterprise and wealth generation.

This would not only be financially damaging, but also unfair and demoralising to the many creative and hard-working businessmen and women responsible for the entrepreneurial boom currently being experienced here.

With more than 40,000 new businesses established last year - up 12% on 2022 - Scotland is the third-fastest-growing region in the UK for start-ups, behind Northern Ireland (up by 59%) and London (+20%).

These are principally small businesses, owned and run by local people, which will play a crucial role in supporting the growth of Scotland’s economy.

To be taken seriously, the SNP needs to have a fundamental rethink about the intellectual and practical underpinning of its case for independence, similar to Labour’s ditching of Clause Four of its constitution, prior to it winning a landslide victory in the 1997 general election.

It can no longer credibly claim to stand-up for Scottish interests when it has so plainly sold voters down the river with its opportunistic, populist dogma of the past decade-and-a-half.

Finance Secretary Shona RobisonFinance Secretary Shona Robison (Image: PA)

At a time when support for independence has never been higher, the SNP has contrived to simultaneously demonstrate that it is ill-equipped to deliver and effectively manage the economy of a sovereign Scotland.

For those who have supported independence all their lives, in many cases for decades, as well as for young people who see it as their future, this is a tragedy, particularly when they see the success of a demographic and culturally equivalent nation across the Irish Sea.

Ireland's economic success was achieved by aggressively pursuing policies to attract foreign direct investment, particularly in the tech and pharmaceutical sectors, resulting in rapid economic growth.

It experienced stronger population and labour force growth compared with Scotland, with a younger and more dynamic workforce. Scotland's ageing population and slower labour force growth have posed challenges to economic expansion.

Rather than seeking to win over voters with expensive, populist giveaways, the SNP should adopt a proactive and strategic approach to economic development for Scotland to attract more foreign direct investment, particularly in high-growth sectors.

To achieve this, it needs to implement pro-business policies with the limited powers available, including a competitive tax regime and a focus on skills development aligned with industry needs. Additionally, it should prioritise attracting talent and diversifying its economy beyond traditional industries.

The futility of playing the blame game is a lesson the SNP needs to learn quickly to avoid electoral oblivion.

Carlos Alba is a journalist, author, and PR consultant at Carlos Alba Media. His latest novel, There’s a Problem with Dad, explores the issue of undiagnosed autism among older people.