Where are the songs of spring? Good question. For the SNP, at their autumn conference, the anthems are somewhat muted by bruising defeat and whimpering prospects. Not sure much more can go wrong.

The SNP suffered a calamitous reverse in the General Election. Their standing in UK politics has evaporated as a consequence. They no longer have a majority at Holyrood after the precipitous ending of the pact with the Greens and the subsequent resignation of Humza Yousaf.

Scottish Government Ministers are under pressure in every conceivable quarter from the NHS to schools to the economy. The campaign for independence has stalled. Internal rows seem endemic, such as the controversy over Angus Robertson’s Israeli meeting. And, lest we forget, there may still be a prosecution pending with regard to the investigation into party finances – a police inquiry which is rivalling The Mousetrap for longevity.

It is not remotely surprising that there is a substantial degree of disquiet within the party. That has two broad aspects.

One, members fret over the 2026 Holyrood elections. Could this July’s collapse be replicated?

Two – and more fundamentally – they worry that their founding cause, the aim of independence, has been set back drastically. So there is discontent. Serious, rooted discontent. But there is minimal sign of an insurrection.

The atmosphere will be different from previous conferencesThe atmosphere will be different from previous conferences (Image: free)

Members know it would be daft to ditch John Swinney after the chaos which precipitated his return to office. Indeed, one senior source told me that Mr Swinney epitomised the stability and diligence which the party – and Scottish Government – require in order to regain public trust.

My source added, however, that “John needs to be himself.” Focus, as he has declared, upon ending child poverty, boosting economic growth, tackling public services and addressing climate change.

Given the political environment, this was already shaping up to be a somewhat different party conference. Indeed, for a seasoned observer like me, there is a touch of nostalgia on display. In recent years, party gatherings here have tended to display the worst aspects of US Conventions. Delegates are there to applaud wildly, to chant the leader’s name and, in extremis, to sing uplifting songs. They are performing seals, rewarded with occasional treats. But this Edinburgh gathering has a different feel.

For one thing, there are debates over policy, led by relevant Cabinet Secretaries, including the penitent Mr Robertson. Quite like old times. In addition, there are internal sessions scheduled to discuss the party’s progress. Or lack thereof. A chance to let off steam. A chance to yell in pain. Or grieve satirically. According to taste.

This follows an extensive consultation with party members around Scotland, led by Mr Swinney and other senior figures. No attempt here to stuff problems under a convenient rug. No talk of “nothing to see, move on.” The scale and scope of the challenge is too extensive to permit such an approach.

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In any case, Mr Swinney wants the party to confront the crisis – for such it is. He wants anxiety and anger to be ventilated – albeit in private session. He knows he must not let discontent fester.

However, there is a quid pro quo. He believes that this spell of intense introspection must be followed by a determination to look outwards and to confront the SNP’s rivals. In particular, Labour. Which is precisely why he has labelled this as a “watershed week” in politics. Referring, of course, to the declaration by the Prime Minister that things will get worse before they get better. In particular, the acknowledgement by Sir Keir Starmer that the budget, due on October 30, will be “painful”, addressing what he insists is an unforeseen black hole of £22bn in the UK’s accounts.

Both the UK and Scottish Governments stress their determination to work together. I believe they are sincere. Fretful voters will tolerate nothing less.

Equally, though, Labour and the SNP are political enemies, preparing for that Holyrood contest. The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, visits Scotland, insisting that the SNP are just as culpable as the Tories with regard to public finances. Labour cites a Scottish Fiscal Commission report which says that Scottish Government decisions caused mounting pressure, alongside uncertainty over UK plans.

In response, Mr Swinney says that the PM has plainly predicated “years of austerity” under Labour. Only the SNP, he argues, offers “hope and ambition”. In essence, Mr Swinney has transferred his rhetoric from the Tories to Labour.

Senior party sources insist the PM’s stand and the October budget could offer an opportunity to the SNP, if they can channel public disquiet into support for an alternative. One source noted that the Scottish Government strategy had been to mitigate Tory cuts, through enhanced benefits. My source questioned whether that should be extended – or whether the party should now focus more firmly upon blaming Labour.

Two big issues. Timing and tax. SNP leaders know they need to effect urgent change – to regain trust. As one put it to me, they need to “get rid of the crap” and deliver for people. I believe Scottish Labour leaders are also fretful about time. They know that a UK governmental agenda is, in practice, linked to a Westminster electoral timescale. Yes, the PM “gets” Scotland – but can he deliver in time for the run-up to 2026?

Sir Keir StarmerSir Keir Starmer (Image: free)

Then taxation. Sir Keir says no hikes in VAT, National Insurance or income tax for working people. Which still leaves fuel duty, other duties, capital gains, inheritance tax and other levies.

And what about Shona Robison, Scotland’s finance secretary, who will set out her latest thinking at Holyrood next week? She will argue for “investment” in people, in public services. But might that lead to a further increase in the overall Scottish tax burden, already outpacing the UK level?

Both governments insist their objective is economic growth. How will their fiscal strategies sit alongside that? Business remains worried.

And what of independence? SNP leaders believe that trust in the Scottish Government can be rebuilt – and that sensible devolved governance can enhance support for independence. But they know that time is short. That, as things stand, they could also lose heavily in 2026.

As one told me, “we need to stop shooting ourselves in the foot”.