Labour are still in opposition in Scotland. In case we forget, Anas Sarwar has been all over the papers talking about his “dossier” on SNP fiscal management.
Time was when no Labour politician would go near the word “dossier”. I guess it’s been a long time since the Iraq war.
But this one has dodgy elements of its own.
On first glance it’s the usual knockabout stuff, with the Scottish Labour leader bashing the SNP for Scotland’s “economic decline and financial mismanagement” but quickly it starts to raise questions about hypocrisy from the Scottish Labour leader. Mr Sarwar is attacking the SNP for council cuts and the tax differential between Scotland and England, taking a pop at the Scottish Government’s changes to income tax in Scotland and for allowing “fiscal drag” by freezing tax bands.
Qué? Forgive me, but I’m a little confused. How does Labour think it will fund councils better and slash rail fares in Scotland against the backdrop of Keir Starmer’s “painful” forthcoming Budget, if Mr Sarwar also opposes the SNP’s tax policy? Mr Sarwar needs to decide where his priorities lie.
The SNP have indeed got themselves into a fine mess. We know that SNP spending choices are largely to blame for the cuts we’re seeing in many areas. Yes, the size of Westminster’s block grant to Scotland comes into it, but independent economists are as one in pointing to the SNP’s expensive choices.
Anas Sarwar condemns the SNP leadership for policies he supports (Image: free)
The Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) said as much only this week. It noted that while UK Government policies had something to do with the pressure on Scotland’s budget, “much of the pressure comes from the Scottish Government’s own decisions." Public sector pay rises that were higher than provided for in budgets, for instance, led to the Scottish Government having to introduce emergency spending controls earlier this month.
Labour has made hay with this, accusing the SNP of incompetence.
The trouble for Labour, though, is that when you look at the SNP’s spending choices, they turn out to be things Labour supports.
Take social security. The Scottish Child Payment and other enhanced social security payments are expensive, but you won’t find a single Labour politician questioning how valuable and worthwhile they are. Seven Labour MSPs backed a motion in parliament calling for the child payment, currently worth £26.70, to be raised to £40 a week.
Last December, the SFC reckoned there would be a £1.1bn gap between this year’s devolved welfare spend and the block grant social security allocation. That’s set to rise to £1.5bn over the next four years. Mr Sarwar has criticised “the SNP’s tax hikes”. How would he fund all this, then? The Scottish Government calculates that it will raise £1.5bn more this year than it would have done if it had never diverged from the UK on income tax.
Then there’s the public sector pay deals that are higher in Scotland than in other parts of the UK. Of course the Scottish Government should make sure it can fund its spending commitments before making them, and it hasn’t. It turns on the spending taps and then, pitifully, blames Westminster when it runs out of money. The Scottish Government is scandalously poor at taking responsibility and deserves all the flak it gets for it.
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But at the same time, it’s highly unlikely Mr Sarwar would want Scotland to lose its status as the UK nation with the best paid NHS workers and the best patient-to-staff ratios, given the recruitment and retention problems the health service faces. His colleague, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, has agreed several above inflation pay deals herself in the past few weeks. This is classic Labour territory.
And then there’s the council tax freeze. This truly was fiscal mismanagement, imposed by a jumpy Humza Yousaf in the wake of the SNP’s crushing Rutherglen by-election defeat last autumn. Councillors practically begged him to U-turn on it, warning of dire cuts to local services, but Mr Yousaf pushed ahead.
What did Mr Sarwar say? He backed the freeze. There was some muttering about how it needed to be fully funded, but he backed it.
Now 450 teaching jobs are to go in Glasgow over three years, with 172 jobs already gone. After backing the freeze, now Labour are attacking the cuts.
There is a credibility gap here. Mr Sarwar appears still to be in general election campaigning mode, presenting himself as all things to all people. It jars, especially as there’s a Labour Government at Westminster warning of cuts and tax rises to come.
Things will get worse before they get better, says the Prime Minister. As well as confirming Labour would cut winter fuel payments for better off pensioners, he has strongly hinted at tax rises ahead, saying those with the broadest shoulders "should bear the heavier burden".
That’s the same language used by Shona Robison to justify the changes to tax bands imposed in Scotland last year, when an extra “advanced” tax rate was imposed on incomes between £75,000 and £125,000 and the Higher band was frozen again.
She needs the money; Rachel Reeves needs the money; both have had to take difficult decisions.
Mr Sarwar seems less comfortable with acknowledging the reality of those fiscal challenges.
Scottish Labour are sending mixed messages (Image: free)
Labour will have a tough election in 2026. A recent poll has the SNP emerging as the largest party by one seat but unable to form an administration, leaving Labour to form a minority government with support from the Tories and Lib Dems.
This messy scenario will worry Labour, especially as its support may well fall rather than rise between now and 2026 as the UK Government imposes short-term pain on us all. The SNP will brand it austerity.
Scottish Labour will be hoping voters see public services and their finances improve well before polling day, but that’s optimistic in the timescale.
Mr Sarwar can help himself by behaving like a First Minister-in-waiting instead of a career oppositionist. He needs to be credible and serious, with realistic, achievable goals that can actually be funded.
Dodgy dossiers aren’t a great start.
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