There was much to be cheerful about, from a Scottish perspective, in Royal Bank of Scotland’s latest growth tracker report published this week.
Scotland’s performance was not stellar, and the nation was not as high in the UK league table as it has been in the recent past.
However, it was firmly in the top half of the table of UK nations and regions when it came to growth of the private sector economy in July.
This was most encouraging, after a sharp slowdown in expansion in June which came as a bit of a surprise given the broadly consistent relative strength of the Scottish economy in a UK context in recent times in the Royal Bank survey.
Furthermore, Scotland’s progress on several other key measures was also good news, at least from the viewpoint of anyone who wants to see the nation flourish, with all that means for living standards. That said, we should bear in mind that the idea of Scotland prospering seems to be anathema for some hidebound by political views.
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There was a rise in optimism among Scottish companies in July about the prospects for increased activity on a 12-month horizon, the survey revealed.
And increases in confidence were recorded in both the services and manufacturing sectors north of the Border.
The improvement in optimism in manufacturing was perhaps particularly welcome, given this sector recorded another decline in activity in July.
Manufacturers, and particularly exporters, have of course not had their troubles to seek in recent years because of the loss of frictionless trade with the UK’s largest trading partner, the European Union and broader European Economic Area.
Many manufacturers have also reported that the loss of free movement of people between the UK and EEA has fuelled skills and labour shortages.
Of course, it is important to note the loss of this valuable source of labour has also hit services providers, in Scotland and of course in the UK as a whole.
Scotland’s hospitality sector, for example, has consistently highlighted the difficulties created by Brexit.
The Royal Bank tracker also shows a renewed upturn in new business inflows for Scotland’s private sector.
And it signals the private sector economy north of the Border last month enjoyed an acceleration in employment growth.
The Royal Bank survey shows Scottish private sector growth accelerated in July, with the country ranking fifth among the 12 UK nations and regions.
The headline business activity index for Scotland rose to 52.7 last month from 51.9 in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, coming in above the level of 50 deemed to separate growth from contraction for a seventh consecutive month.
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This run of overall private sector growth is a significant achievement, given the dismal UK economic backdrop.
We should bear in mind that, on the basis of official data, the UK economy fell into recession in the final three months of last year.
While it emerged from recession in the first quarter, the UK economic picture has in recent times essentially been one of protracted stagnation.
Only Northern Ireland, south-west England, London and south-east England recorded stronger private sector growth than Scotland in July, according to the Royal Bank growth tracker.
Of course, the economy in Scotland is not firing on all cylinders, and this should come as no surprise to anyone given the UK’s economic predicament.
The UK economy has been hit hard for so many years by the Tories’ ill-judged austerity, which we should recognise is an ongoing thing and a key driver of poverty for millions of households, not just those out of work but also for many in employment.
Also weighing down the UK economy is the enormous and ongoing damage from Brexit.
And, while other countries have also suffered from surging prices in recent years, the UK’s inflation crisis was so much worse than that in so many nations. Brexit, of course, played a key part in exacerbating the UK’s woe on this front.
The road ahead looks challenging for the economy in Scotland and the UK as a whole. The main levers which could stimulate growth are of course at Westminster. The Scottish Government, though its economic development agencies, can play a part in maximising inward investment. And Scotland has done rather well on this front in recent years. However, the big economic levers are not devolved.
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Labour, while its attempt to boost housebuilding and its plan to improve employment rights after so many years of Tory rule are both welcome, has not come up with anything that would suggest it can deliver a meaningful boost to UK growth. In fact, it has hemmed itself in on two key fronts.
It has shunned rejoining the European single market, something that would if it were achieved provide an enormous boost to growth.
Labour has also pledged to stick to the Tory fiscal rules, limiting its capacity to stimulate growth through investment and thereby boost tax revenues.
This backdrop, while somewhat dismal, makes it all the more encouraging that Scotland’s private sector economy is doing okay in difficult circumstances.
The sharp decline in private sector growth in Scotland in June was most unwelcome.
However, publishing this week’s growth tracker, Royal Bank noted the latest business activity index reading for Scotland “signalled a solid start to the third quarter”.
Judith Cruickshank, who chairs Royal Bank’s Scotland board, said: "The Scottish private sector signalled a solid start to the second half of the year, backed up by a strongly performing service sector.
“Moreover, optimism towards the year-ahead outlook was firmly optimistic, as confidence levels strengthened on the month. Private sector employment also ticked up in July, the rate of job creation quickening from June.”
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It should be noted that the rate of employment growth in Scotland in July slipped below the UK average for the first time in 12 months, even though it strengthened. However, this fact also highlights how consistently strong employment growth in Scotland was in a UK context in the 12 months prior to July.
And the advances by the Scottish private sector last month, in terms of the acceleration of growth, the increase in optimism, the renewed upturn in new business inflows and the faster rate of increase in employment, are surely positives.
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