To everything in politics there is a season. Or at least there used to be.
At this point in the summer news cycle, with Westminster now joining Holyrood in recess, the talk among those still left in the steamie should be of minor things, like where the Prime Minister is going on holiday, and how Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner will fare when he does.
Images of far-right mobs rioting across England and in Belfast have put paid to any such talk. Unless Downing Street has lost the plot there will be no photos of Sir Keir relaxing in a taverna (David Cameron), walking in the Alps (Theresa May), or sprinting along a beach with an energetic King Charles Spaniel (Margaret Thatcher) any time soon.
Just in case there were any lingering doubts that the Labour government’s honeymoon period is over, along come the numbers to confirm it. A poll published on Saturday by Opinium shows Starmer’s approval rating down 16% since the general election. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, fares worse than her boss, with an approval rating down 23%.
There is no mystery about the latter. Last Monday, Reeves blamed the previous Conservative government for a £22 billion gap in the public finances and announced the means-testing of winter fuel payments for pensioners. She also admitted for the first time that certain taxes, as yet unspecified, would have to rise in her first Budget on October 30.
Opinium polled voters on some of the ways Reeves intends to spend and raise money. While most people approved of public sector pay rises, a windfall tax on the profits of energy companies, and charging VAT on private school fees, 49% gave a thumbs down to scrapping winter fuel payments to pensioners not on benefits.
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The axing of winter fuel payments went down badly in Scotland, with pressure now on the Scottish Government to reject the move when it takes over responsibility for the benefit this winter.
Add this to Downing Street’s refusal to lift the two-child benefit cap and you can see why some in the party are uncomfortable. Labour wins power after 14 years of austerity and pensioners and children in poverty are the first groups it comes after? The optics are bad and the politics questionable, unless Labour thinks there is electoral advantage to be gained from being tough on pensioners and poor families.
All political honeymoon periods come to an end eventually. The gap between what a government says it will do and what it does is always going to be evident. But there was a notable impatience, stoked by Reeves’ predecessor Jeremy Hunt, that Labour was too quick to play the “there’s no money left” card, and that the biggest reason for the £22 billion black hole was Reeves handing above inflation pay rises to the public sector.
One way and another, there has been a cooling off among voters who handed Starmer a landslide victory. Many of these votes were “loaned” to the party by disgruntled Tories and other tactical voters.
Contrast Starmer’s all too brief brief honeymoon period with the six months it took for the shine to come off Tony Blair’s administration. Blair’s first “worst week” began when news broke of a £1m donation to the party by Formula One boss Bernie Ecclestone. F1 was subsequently given an exemption from the ban on tobacco sponsorship. Blair denied there was any link.
Appearing on the BBC’s On the Record (the Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg of its day), he apologised for how the matter had been handled, insisting he was “a pretty straight sort of guy”. Sketch writers had fun with that, and the amount of makeup Blair was wearing.
Starmer, who was head of the Crown Prosecution Service at the time of the 2011 riots in England, has so far appeared assured in his handling of the current disturbances, as has his Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper. But the rows over the winter fuel payments and planned tax rises are not going away. Reeves, as Chancellor, is in the frame for both.
Reeves had been due to be interviewed by LBC broadcaster Iain Dale at the Fringe yesterday but the event was cancelled. Dale has had to withdraw from all his Edinburgh appearances this year because of a perforated gall bladder.
The show goes on in most cases, however, with broadcaster Matthew Stadlen standing in. Among those listed to appear on the Iain Dale: All Talk podcast are Wes Streeting, UK health secretary (definitely one to check), former Prime Minister Liz Truss, and former First Minister Humza Yousaf. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is another cancellation.
On Saturday it was the turn of Alex Salmond and Ruth Davidson to be interviewed by Stadlen.
The ex-First Minister and Alba leader described Donald Trump as “erratic”. He suggested the former President may have a difficult time against vice-president Kamala Harris, who he said was a “tough cookie”.
He added: “It’s a lot easier being Donald’s enemy, politically, than it is to be seen to be Donald’s friend.”
Ruth Davidson, now in the House of Lords, said “watch this space” when asked if she might make a David Cameron-style comeback to mainstream politics.
Davidson quit as leader of the Scottish Conservatives in 2019.
“I promised my partner I wouldn’t take another big job until my son started school and he’s just finished primary one, so we’ll see. Watch this space,” she said.
“I’m not saying I necessarily think my next big job is going to be in politics. It doesn’t have to be. But I’m 45, I’m not nearing retirement.”
Describing herself as “a cringing Presbyterian”, she admitted feeling “uncomfortable” in the Lords and said she would vote herself out given the chance.
“It is an absolute privilege to sit in the Lords and I never forget that. It’s amazing to see, and if you are in a debate on Ukraine or an issue like that, there’s a former Sea Lord there, a former head of the Army, and also people who were big parts of my childhood, such as Michael Heseltine.
“But I am such a cringing Presbyterian with an utter sense of not being worthy because there are so many connotations with rank and title and stuff like that.
“Growing up and going to school in Buckhaven in Fife and with parents from two Glasgow council estates, there’s a feeling that I shouldn’t be there and I feel uncomfortable.”
For now, though, the honeymoon feeling remains.
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