Scottish Tories need to reinvent themselves – or flounder

The Conservative Party is currently embracing a pause. Facing the new Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak opted to be conciliatory and droll, rather than combative, aware that his leadership days are over.

Which, in the interim, provides added assistance to Labour.

That will be especially true on Monday when the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is expected to confirm that there is a significant black hole in public finances – and thus, potentially, in her fiscal plans.

The SNP have already pounced upon that, noting that it runs rather counter to Labour’s line in the election, when they dismissed such prospects as scaremongering.

The Scottish Tories need a new leader as Douglas Ross steps down (Image: free)

That debate may well develop in Scotland. But, at Westminster, the SNP impact is palpably diminished. And the Tories? They face their own distractions.

Firstly, the black hole gained density on their watch. Secondly, Monday also brings the close of nominations in the contest to replace Mr Sunak as UK Conservative leader.

Tory minds will be upon who might ultimately emerge victorious. And also upon the fundamental direction of the party.

Which presents an added problem for Scottish Conservatives. They too face a leadership contest after what one MSP told me was the “ridiculous resignation” of the incumbent, Douglas Ross.

The Scottish Tory management board will meet on Wednesday to decide the rules and timetable for this contest, following consultation with the members.

One dilemma is whether to seek to dovetail the Scottish process with the UK contest – knowing that Mr Sunak’s replacement will not be named until early November.

Then there is the substance of the Scottish contest. Yes, it is about individual names, individual personalities. But it is also about the very nature of the Scottish Tories.

They have long been pulled by sundry forces. Being Tory – low tax, small government, individual choice. Being Scottish – defending Scotland’s interests. And being Unionist.

Under Ruth Davidson’s leadership, the Scottish Tories flourished to a degree by stressing their Unionist credentials, by contriving to corral supporters of the Union into the Tory pen, rather than sticking with Labour and Liberal Democrat.

This built upon old foundations. For much of the 20th century, until 1965, the Tories were known north of the Border as the Scottish Unionists.

(The label “Unionist”, incidentally, came from the Tory merger with Liberal Unionists who split from Gladstone over Irish Home Rule. Thus, it did not arise, directly, from either the Tories or indeed Scotland.) Under that banner, they contrived to attract working-class Unionist support – and gained a narrow Scottish popular majority in 1955, the only party to achieve that since universal suffrage.

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But times changed. Voters in Scotland wanted more than just Unionism. And the party changed; modernising, recalibrating the links with Tories in England.

Now the calculation once again is that the Scottish Tories need to offer more than Unionism, more than being the antidote to the SNP.

One MSP told me the voters drawn in by Ruth Davidson could be classed as “transactional Unionists” – who were now drifting back to other parties. Alongside that, there is a new challenge from Reform UK.

Further, the Tory calculation is that the “threat of independence” is now diminished, given the SNP’s travails. Diminished but not extinguished.

The Tories will still remain the party of Unionism. But they need more. As one MSP put it to me, they need to “dial down the indy stuff” and revert to other issues, such as tax cuts.

There is another question in the mix. Might the Scottish Tories break away from the UK party? As one source told me, the Scots Tories are “always seen as a branch office by Westminster – and when they fail, we fail.”

I do not see an outright break. For one thing, Murdo Fraser lost the leadership contest in 2011 by proposing just such a departure. The members in Scotland are proud to be Tory.

For another, the public mood is currently intolerant of constitutional debate. Just ask the SNP.

But there remains a significant Scottish dimension in Scottish politics. Folk do not just emulate the UK voting pattern. The concept of standing up for Scottish interests will sustain and revive.

Again, that is a long-established trait in Scottish Toryism. The likes of John Buchan argued for Scottish patriotism. One of the parties which merged to form the SNP in 1934 had Tory origins.

So the Tories north of the Border know that they need a blended approach. Demonstrably Tory, demonstrably Unionist – but also demonstrably Scottish.

The contest in Scotland has not started particularly well, with complaints about leaks and smears. Such is the nature of contemporary – and indeed historical – politics.

Back, briefly, to Gladstone. His Tory rival, Disraeli, said that if the Grand Old Man fell into the Thames, it would be a misfortune. If someone dragged him out, that would be a calamity.

I expect the vitriol to subside once the contest is properly engaged. Indeed, I have been struck by the scope of the introspection and discourse disclosed in contributions by Tory MSPs to The Herald’s Unspun feature.

And it's goodbye to Rishi Sunak too (Image: free)

Each spotlights the need to broaden the party’s appeal, to move beyond simplistic attacks upon the SNP – and to project the concept of leadership.

If the others will forgive me, I was particularly drawn to Liam Kerr’s contribution. He stressed the need to build “togetherness.”

He drew a comparison with the remarkable story of the footballers who propelled Wimbledon FC to the heights of an FA Cup victory in 1988. They were known, he reminds us, as the “crazy gang”.

Like Mr Kerr, I used to live in Wimbledon. I have a similar memory – although, as I recall, the team’s success rested largely upon what one might politely call the “uncompromising” defensive skills of Vinny Jones.

Expect you could think of a few candidates for that role in the Scottish Tories. But not sure it would work in today’s Scotland. The Tories need a more subtle formula to attract supporters to their gang, crazy or otherwise.