The two weeks since Labour won power have confirmed one thing - this victory is nothing like the one in 1997 which ushered in sweeping changes that were highly positive for the economy and society.
This is no surprise. No one who had followed new Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s ultra-cautious General Election campaign could surely have expected the sort of transformation that was delivered by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown from 1997, after 18 long years of Tory rule.
The last few years of that reign by the Conservatives were arguably not quite as bad as what went before under Margaret Thatcher but Messrs Blair and Brown were nevertheless able to deliver radical change that put the UK on a good path.
It was a period of robust and steady growth. The pair had a bit of a tailwind as they embarked on their plans, with the economy doing okay. Sir Keir has a more difficult economic backdrop with which to contend and, while he might get a bit of an early boost when the forecast fall in interest rates eventually starts and with pressure on real wages easing, any such tailwind will be weak.
The now Sir Tony Blair ensured a huge majority in 1997, with many famous Tory names losing their seats, in no small part by delivering a message which did not scare middle England.
He and his government pursued a fairly centrist economic policy.
And, seemingly in no small part because of the deep thinking of Mr Brown, the rewards of the UK’s economic success were distributed far more fairly, without any undue burden on better-off sections of the electorate.
Tax credits went a very long way indeed to ensuring people in work had enough to get by.
And there was adequate welfare provision, something that is surely a prerequisite for any civilised society.
Sadly, since then, we have had the savage cuts to welfare implemented by the Conservatives from 2010 onwards.
These cuts are now embedded, sadly.
We should not underestimate the lasting impact of the UK’s particularly severe inflation crisis on millions of households.
And in-work poverty is a major problem.
This is obviously an absolutely grim situation from the perspective of society.
It is also, of course, bad for employers and for the economy.
We hear a lot of talk about productivity. And, yes, of course productivity is related to investment and technological advances.
However, it also depends on the mood of workers, even and perhaps especially so those in the more autocratic corporations which seem far more prevalent these days than in the past.
People with major money worries will, for all their efforts and with the best will in the world, not be the most productive.
Of course, Labour’s fine showing on the economy from 1997 came unstuck amid the global financial crisis, which got under way in earnest in the autumn of 2008 but was in the post for at least a year before that.
READ MORE: Ian McConnell: Time to stop kicking Ferguson Marine shipyard around
Interestingly, Labour was unable to find its voice to assert, correctly, that this crisis was a global phenomenon rather than something of its making. The clue was, of course, in the word “global”.
Nevertheless, the Tories appeared to make the accusations they threw at Labour on this front stick. Even though no one would surely imagine the Conservatives would have regulated the financial sector to a greater extent than Labour. Any notion that they would have done is absolutely laughable.
And we should also remember the great job done in 2008 by Mr Brown, by then the prime minister, and his chancellor, Alistair Darling, in swiftly putting in place arrangements that warded off a complete collapse of the UK financial system. By doing so, they mitigated greatly the damage to the country from the global financial crisis.
Returning to the Labour Party under Sir Keir, one striking feature is a lack of excitement around it.
That is not to say that excitement is always good.
However, in this case, a bit of energy and excitement would be most welcome, even if it was just a significant fraction of that in 1997.
Households and businesses in the UK have been suffering a protracted economic malaise.
The cost of the Tory hard Brexit has been very great indeed, and there is more damage to come on this front sadly, with Sir Keir and his Cabinet having ruled out rejoining the European Union, the single market, or even the customs union.
Labour has thus shunned the potential big win. If it could be agreed with the EU, single market re-entry and the return of free movement of people between the UK and the European Economic Area and restoration of frictionless trade with our biggest trading partner would be a very big deal indeed.
READ MORE: Ian McConnell: Muzzled dog, yes, but Swinney also hits nail on head
Sir Keir and his government have also decided to undertake what looks like a similar exercise to that required of three-legged race contestants at the starting line.
They have restricted themselves greatly by deciding to adopt the Tory fiscal framework. Even though the Conservatives’ economic performance was absolutely dismal. And even though Labour has a huge majority, and always looked likely throughout the campaign to win a resounding victory given the dismal state of the Tories.
So there seems to be little prospect of big, exciting investment programmes which might boost growth and generate tax revenues, and actually bolster the public finances.
That is not to say that Labour has done nothing, even in the relatively few days since it came to power.
READ MORE: Ian McConnell: The sad, sad tale of a Scottish bank
Sir Keir declared the Conservatives’ Rwanda deportation scheme for some asylum seekers entering the UK was “dead and buried” shortly after becoming Prime Minister. This is a very welcome move from a societal perspective and in terms of the UK’s international reputation, which has been so badly damaged in recent years in so many ways under the Tories.
Labour’s employment law reforms are also most welcome. The erosion of workers’ rights under the Conservatives has been nothing short of alarming.
However, it is astoundingly difficult to see the big distinctions between Labour and the Conservatives when it comes to the economy and Europe.
There should be a big opportunity here on both of these fronts, especially given just how badly the Conservatives have performed and the damage they have caused.
For now at least though, it seems Sir Keir and his Cabinet do not want to grasp it.
It is a far cry indeed from those heady days of 1997.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel