Labour thinks they can oust SNP at Holyrood but I'm not so sure

At this point, the outcome of the general election at a UK-wide level is a foregone conclusion. All that remains to be decided is the scale of Labour’s victory. In Scotland, though, this election will set the board for 2026, and the parties still seek to influence how the pieces fall.

From day one, Scottish Labour’s campaign has been fought on two fronts, at once against the Conservative UK Government and the SNP Scottish Government. Their manifesto mentions the Conservatives 53 times, and the SNP 40 times. Anas Sarwar has consistently deployed the refrain that Scotland is being failed by “two bad governments”.

Independence has not been key to the general election in Scotland (Image: free)

Their attacks on the Conservatives undoubtedly play into the electorate’s determination to oust the Conservatives from government. Roughly as many pro-independence SNP voters are prioritising deposing the Conservatives as are prioritising maximising the number of pro-independence MPs Scotland sends to Westminster.

This has benefitted Scottish Labour enormously, winning disillusioned former Conservative voters and anti-Conservative, pro-independence voters alike. According to the latest Survation poll for The Herald and Ballot Box Scotland, a quarter of Labour’s current voter coalition voted SNP in 2019 and would vote Yes in an independence referendum. Just a third voted Labour in 2019. They appear to be drawing in a diverse voter coalition based on their prime positioning to oust the Conservatives.

It is not so clear that their anti-SNP positioning is having a similar effect. The two parties were neck-and-neck on being the most trusted to improve healthcare and education in an Ipsos poll earlier this month, but the SNP narrowly led on being most trusted to improve the economy.

In the same poll, John Swinney led when respondents were asked who would make the most capable First Minister, with 36% choosing him and 23% choosing Anas Sarwar. And 20% of those who told Ipsos they would vote Labour in this election thought Mr Swinney would make a better First Minister than Mr Sarwar. And a full third of Scottish Labour’s voters in that poll told Ipsos they were voting Labour tactically, not because Scottish Labour is the party they most prefer.

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With the SNP, Scottish Labour still have a serious fight on their hands. It is not at all clear what the results of next week's election will be in Scotland, but a scenario in which Scottish Labour wins more seats than the SNP is the most likely right now, and the immediate question for them will be how to build on that win. What is clear is that converting victory next week into victory in 2026 is going to require much more than attacking the SNP’s record.

That is not to say that they should stop attacking the SNP’s record, but such attacks will not be enough. The 2026 election will not be driven by the same imperatives as the election next week. While dissatisfied with its lack of delivery on their priorities, voters do not rate the Scottish Government nearly as badly as the UK Government. Nor do they rate the SNP nearly as badly as the Conservatives.

There is not an overwhelming desire to get rid of the SNP government that there is to get rid of the Conservative government, especially not among the pro-independence, 2019 SNP voters who will vote Labour next week – many for tactical reasons, and despite preferring John Swinney and the SNP at Holyrood.

The big risk for Scottish Labour is that they forget that around a quarter of their voters are lending them their vote to get the Conservatives out, not because they prefer Scottish Labour over the alternatives. In total, we are talking about around a tenth of the electorate – if even half of them swing back to the SNP, Scottish Labour can say goodbye to the prospect of winning power in Edinburgh.

So, how to hold on to these voters? The answer is singular: deliver, quickly.

Labour will want 2026 to be a competence election, much like this one, but it will not be one that Labour can expect to win by default as the repository of enormous discontent and disillusionment.

Instead, they must use the 22 months they will have in office before the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections to prove to Scottish voters that the party can be trusted to improve public services and strengthen the economy. This will not be easy – economic growth takes years for government policy to cultivate, and Labour’s cautious approach to fiscal policy means improvements to public services will not happen overnight.

The general election is a foregone conclusion (Image: free)

But they must chalk up some wins that have a visible influence in Scotland in time to establish Labour’s positive influence in the Scottish political imagination before 2026. Labour will only win in 2026 if they can juxtapose a tired and frustrating SNP with a dynamic and pro-active Labour Party.

If they disappoint, not only will they find pro-independence voters draining away, but they may also find space opening up for independence to re-assert itself on the political agenda as voters cast around for change – a disappointing Labour government with the Conservatives the only alternative within the UK will not endear the Union to voters.

At that point, they will not find themselves back at square one – their gains from outwith the pool of former SNP voters will likely bed in, and they will become the main beneficiary of unionist tactical voting – but having taken a step backwards from the two steps forwards they will take next week.

Labour will win this election because they have built what the pollster James Kanagasooriam has called a ‘monumental sandcastle’ – a potentially huge majority built on thin foundations, ready to be washed away by the political tide. To win in 2026, Labour must get to work rapidly building an electoral edifice less spectacular but on much more solid and deeply rooted foundations: a positive record in government.