Independence campaign could be on the verge of a huge boost

Perhaps. But for how long?

Four years ago, support for independence surged as Brexit and Boris Johnson made Scottish voters feel alienated from UK politics.

It’s settled back to the 45 per cent mark since then, but politics could be about to deliver a perfect storm of circumstances that could boost the cause. At its centre is Nigel Farage.

The Putin apologist and Trump cheerleader looks likely to win a parliamentary seat on the eighth time of asking, in Clacton, Essex, benefiting from the Tories’ spectacular demise. It probably goes without saying that this dog whistler who suggested that Rishi Sunak “doesn’t understand our culture” and that the mayor of London Sadiq Khan “really hates England”, would be a disaster if he ever did get his hands on the levers of power. Even leaving aside the nasty identity politics, his tax and spending plans are ridiculous.

Nigel Farage could be an ideal recruiting sergeant for the Yes movement (Image: free)

Even so, he’s looking likely to enter parliament. So what might happen then? Well it’s conceivable he could end up as Conservative leader in due course. We know already how much the Tory membership revere Nigel Farage – that was obvious from the crowds around him at the Tory party conference last year.

This is not the Conservative Party of old. Respected moderates like Justine Greening, Rory Stewart, Caroline Nokes, Dominic Grieve and David Gauke are long gone. The parliamentary team and the wider party are much more stridently right wing. Suella Braverman, currently biding her time on the back benches, has openly called on Farage to join the party. Jacob Rees-Mogg wants him in too.

If those elements regain control following a post-election leadership contest, it would be a relatively simple matter for them and Reform to merge and for Farage, assuming he is in parliament, subsequently to become leader. It’s certainly not the only scenario, but it’s a possibility.

Meanwhile Labour will struggle to deliver happier times given the depth of the hole the country is in and the promises they have made to avoid tax rises to support public services. It is axiomatic that the support they currently enjoy, as the untested opponents of a hated government, will not stay at those levels once they are in office. Voter support is far more volatile than it once was. It could see the tide go out on its support once the going gets tough in government.

Let’s hope Labour manage to hold on to their poll advantage, put the country back on a firmer footing and improve both the economy and public services. Some hope could finally return to British politics. But if Labour were to lose significant numbers of disillusioned voters, where would those voters go? Farage would be waiting with open arms.

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Clearly there are loads of ifs, buts and maybes. One of the big potential stumbling block to a Farage surge is Farage himself. He is a highly effective campaigner, but we shouldn’t let that mask his shortcomings. He is thin-skinned, has a policy platform that woefully lacks credibility and hasn’t any track record of being in government at any level.

For all his influence on politics, he’s never come close to actually having to make any policies work himself. It’s far from certain he has the appetite for either the hard work or the responsibility of serious political leadership. Besides, his policies, including weak support for the NHS and a pro-rich tax agenda, limit his appeal. It’s hard to see him becoming Prime Minister.

But he doesn’t have to be Prime Minister to do damage. As leader of the opposition, or even as a very vocal, agenda-setting lone Reform MP, he would inject his divisive nativism into the heart of the body politic. He would boost a right-wing form of English nationalism. And if that were to happen, many voters would find it alienating – hence in Scotland a possible boost in support for independence.

I’m sure there are some independence supporters who would rub their hands with glee at that prospect, but most Scottish voters, pro-indy or not, would be dismayed, I think, at the idea of this Trumpian figure having increased influence in British politics. Some things matter more than independence.

So what can be done?

Labour first. The government of Keir Starmer must reward voters for backing them. They absolutely must improve public services even if it means borrowing or taxing more. Voters must have a reason to stay loyal to Labour, in the face of a right-wing populist onslaught.

Keir Starmer's role is crucial (Image: free)

And then there is the Tory party. It’s only really the right who can save the British right. Those moderate Tories that remain must organise to resist the Faragist threat to their party. There are certainly Tory figures who would put up a fight – good luck to them – but they probably don’t have the membership on their side.

So what if Farage completed his takeover of the Tory Party? Well then there would be scope for a new, moderate centre right party set up expressly in opposition to his agenda. Such a party would not have the headache of worrying about losing voters to the hard right. It would offer a moderate alternative. It would likely find that a lot of former Tory voters were delighted to back it. The right would be split.

Once again, whether Farage leads Reform or the Conservatives, it doesn’t mean the wider public will ever vote for him en masse. We can’t ignore the fact that Farage’s politics have so far been a massive turn-off to most voters. Eventually Tory members will wake up to the reality that they’ll never be in government again unless they move into the centre ground. But we might have a lot of pain to get through before that.

We’re embarking on a disquieting journey into the unknown.