The uncanny similarities between Labour and the Conservatives on Brexit have been thrown into stark relief again in recent days.
First Minister John Swinney and the UK in a Changing Europe think-tank have been offering their views on the Labour and Tory stances on this crucial issue.
They are obviously coming from quite different perspectives.
The First Minister is a politician, and UKICE is an independent think-tank.
However, there are striking similarities in their observations in this regard.
Mr Swinney, in a speech at Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen on Monday, declared: “At this election, Labour is offering no real change. Keir Starmer says, just like Boris Johnson did, that he wants to keep both Scotland and the UK out of the EU, out of the single market, out of the customs union and out of freedom of movement.
“And his deputy, Angela Rayner, has gone further. She’s said during this campaign that Labour will never - never - rejoin either the EU or the single market.”
UKICE, in an analysis of manifestos published in conjunction with Full Fact on Friday, says: “Caution marks both manifestos on relations with the EU. The Conservatives do promise a few areas in which they will make more of ‘Brexit opportunities’ for regulatory reform. Labour commits to improving the trade deal with the EU, but reasserts its red lines on free movement and membership of the single market or customs union, which limits its ability to make a significant difference to most UK businesses.”
Reflecting on what the Conservative and Labour manifestos say, Jonathan Portes, UKICE senior fellow and professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, writes: “Neither will reverse Brexit, or rejoin the single market or customs union, and both are committed to new trade deals with countries beyond the EU, including India. But Labour will try to negotiate various deals with the EU to ‘make Brexit work’.”
While UKICE does highlight some differences in attitude to EU relations between the two parties, the Conservatives and Labour have the same stance on the crucial points of single market membership and freedom of movement. Indeed, the Labour “red lines” highlighted by UKICE are the same as those flagged by Mr Swinney in his speech.
And Mr Portes observes: “Neither party claims there is a magic bullet for growth, whether from Brexit, massive tax cuts and deregulation, or large increases in public spending. That’s a welcome reflection of reality; but it means that a credible strategy to boost growth needs several significant new initiatives, brought together as part of a wider strategy.”
The phrase “elephant in the room” is being used increasingly in relation to Brexit as the General Election draws closer.
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It is increasingly plain, if indeed it is possible for it to become any clearer, that Labour and the Conservatives would simply rather not talk about the realities of Brexit.
Anand Menon, director of UKICE and professor of European politics at King’s College London, says in the think-tank’s manifesto analysis: “Five years is a long time in politics. The 2019 election was all about Brexit. Now, Brexit is the dog the large parties have effectively muzzled.”
He adds: “Brexit might be ‘done’ but it is not over. There is scope for future tensions over the protocol and the unique position of Northern Ireland. Upcoming negotiations over energy and fish, plus a scheduled review of the trade and cooperation agreement hold out the prospect of further collaboration or renewed conflict.
“Meanwhile, public opinion has shifted quite dramatically, with poll after poll underlining decreasing support for Brexit. Finally, there is the elephant in the room. Brexit continues to impose costs on the British economy, and future governments will confront difficult choices as to how far they are willing to go to mitigate these.”
Mr Swinney, understandably from his perspective, highlighted the fact that Scotland had voted against Brexit in the 2016 referendum.
He said: “There were majorities for remain in every one of Scotland’s local authority areas. But Scotland was taken out anyway.
“And we have been left to deal with the consequences not just of a Brexit we didn’t vote for - but a hard Brexit.”
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Interestingly, Mr Swinney also used the “elephant in the room” analogy on Brexit, referring to what he claimed was a “dangerous conspiracy of silence” between Labour and the Conservatives on this issue.
The First Minister said: “They do not want to talk about it – it is the elephant in the room at this election. And that’s important.”
He added: “Given the damage that Brexit has caused it is absolutely astonishing that none of the Westminster parties are interested in repairing that damage.
“They say they prioritise economic growth. But you can’t be a party of Brexit and a party of growth.”
This is surely a very good point.
The hard Brexit implemented by Mr Johnson when he was prime minister is hugely detrimental to growth, yet the Conservatives and Labour have both embraced it fully.
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Mr Swinney, highlighting the economic impact of Brexit in simple terms, said: “It’s been estimated by the National Institute [of] Economic and Social Research that the UK economy is already 2.5% smaller than it would otherwise have been. Other estimates are higher.
“But, taking this lower estimate, that would mean around £69 billion has been wiped from the economy. That in turn means £28 billion less in tax revenues that could have been invested in public services like the NHS. For Scotland, it means a loss of £2.3 billion in public revenue.
“Given that the Scottish Parliament controls around 60% of spending that means that at a conservative estimate we have around £1.6 billion less to spend on the NHS and other public services in Scotland because of Brexit.”
When former first minister Humza Yousaf highlighted the £1.6bn figure in a speech in March, the NIESR put the number at “around £1.2bn”, when asked by The Herald.
Either way, it is a very big number indeed. And, as Mr Swinney noted, some other estimates of the damage done by Brexit to economic output so far are higher than that of the NIESR.
The muzzled dog is a good analogy.
However, in terms of the scale of the impact of Brexit and the unwillingness of Labour and the Conservatives to discuss this, “elephant in the room” is a far more apposite description.
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