Don’t fancy this election? Hang on – there is another one coming

Perhaps we should emulate the French and impose timetable limits on electioneering.

There has been much commentary anent the point that, for Scotland, this UK election ought to be about reserved matters such as defence, foreign affairs and the macro-economy. Instead, it has been about the NHS and schools, alongside topics such as the cost of living which straddle boundaries.

With my constitutional anorak on, I chide. However, I cannot find it in me to blame our politicians. For two reasons. One, folk want to talk about stuff that bothers them. Two, that spill-over point.

Anas Sarwar has set his sights on the next Scottish election (Image: free)

Just listen to Labour’s Anas Sarwar this week. You will be astounded to learn that he proffered “change”. But there was more. It was, he said, a “two-stage process”. Firstly, ousting the UK Tories then turning his fire on devolved SNP governance.

And, even although Holyrood does not go to the polls until 2026, he had his devolved fiscal strategy ready.

Asked if he could rule out any increase in Scottish income tax, he replied succinctly: “Yes. Next question.”

So Mr Sarwar calculates that the tax constraint which has helped form the basis of Labour’s offer in this UK contest will also serve in two years’ time.

At Holyrood, the First Minister responded. John Swinney said such a containment strategy was the “reverse” of what the UK – and, within it, Scotland – required.

Mr Sarwar retorted that the FM should instead contemplate his own record. Bear in mind what is on display here. These two leaders are fighting the immediate election – but are also contesting the one yet to come.

More from Mr Swinney at his manifesto launch. There was the attempt to equate SNP values with Scottish values: from his “moderate, Left of centre” pitch to his promise to stand up for Scotland in every eventuality.

But the FM went further. He urged an end to austerity. Yes, that is ostensibly aimed at the UK Conservatives. But the real target is Scottish Labour, challenging them to explain their stance.

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He mentioned the two-child cap on benefits repeatedly. Again, a challenge to Labour, not the incumbent Tories. Ditto Trident.

But how might the UK election outcome affect preparations for the Holyrood contest? Let us assume a Labour victory: there, you dragged a forecast out of me.

That would certainly provide Scottish Labour with momentum, that most desirable of electoral phenomena. They would be demonstrably on the up.

But power brings responsibility. No more blaming the Tories and/or the SNP.

Labour vigorously denies Mr Swinney’s claim of continuing austerity. But their declared aim is to contain taxation and to reduce debt, over time.

That would, at a bare minimum, provide the new UK Government with challenges.

I believe senior Scottish Labour figures are alert to that prospect, especially as it affects the early period leading up to the Holyrood poll in 2026.

Frankly, the economy is unlikely to turn from stasis to powerhouse in that timescale. Hence, Scottish Labour’s focus on early potential gains, such as an enhanced living wage for low-paid workers.

The SNP also has another contest in mind. Indyref2. Their manifesto states that a majority of Scottish seats at this election would mandate them to open talks with the UK Government – and “intensify” the pressure to rerun the 2014 ballot.

The SNP is focussed on securing another referendum (Image: free)

Mr Swinney declines to say what would be the consequences of the SNP falling short.

In practice, this challenge is strategic. It reassures independence supporters – while challenging Labour, again in particular, to acknowledge Scottish self-determination.

Note that there is no more talk of a “de facto referendum”. Instead, Mr Swinney emphasises independence – but frames it in the context of popular concerns such as the economy. Indy for a purpose.

The Liberal Democrats see their role as influencers. They hope for as many seats, north and south of the border, as possible. The aim would be to shape political direction. The dream, mostly suppressed, would be to share power once more, at Westminster or, eventually, Holyrood.

The Greens firmly believe they can rival the SNP for the title of most Left-wing manifesto. Could they break through in Scotland? Still seems unlikely under first past the post.

Which brings us to the Conservatives. Many of them also have other, pending contests in mind. But they are internal, rather than external. For the party’s leadership and future direction.

We know there will be a Scottish Tory leadership election. It appears probable that Rishi Sunak would also vacate the leadership, especially if heavily defeated.

Frankly, senior figures are already on manoeuvres. It seems most likely that the party would move further to the Right, perhaps encouraged by noises off from Nigel Farage.

His Reform UK candidates have some interesting views – including the one suspended for apparently advocating cannibalism. Presumably in ironic defence of animal rights.

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However, polls suggest it is Farage forward, at least in England. Might he break through – or ultimately stumble? If he does well, could he influence – or even join the Tories?

In a curious way, he reminds me of Pierre Poujade, the French shopkeeper who founded a political movement in the 1950s which was anti-tax and anti-intellectual, proclaiming the merits of small business over the Paris elite.

Mr Farage is a sign of our troubled, disquieted times. The Tories must simply hope to contain him, by arguing that voting Reform enables Labour. Might work – although people seem somewhat disenchanted with the incumbent UK Government.

More broadly, senior Conservatives are now talking openly about limiting Labour’s majority. Their core pitch? That Labour would hike tax. Resolutely denied.

What happens to Scottish Tories if there is a change of UK Conservative leader and, more significantly, a further change in direction?

Pressure, perhaps, to loosen the cross-border party link? Maybe but unlikely, especially as the Holyrood elections are just two years distant. Always another political battle to fight.