Labour Brexit policy shown up for what it is as Nigel Farage storms in

The think-tank, which highlights what it describes as a “studied silence” from Labour on Brexit, adds: “Labour has proposed technical changes to the UK-EU trade deal to reduce red tape. However, the report argues that the party has ruled out the measures - rejoining the single market and/or customs union - which would most significantly aid economic growth.”

This is a truth that needs to be told, especially given the (albeit outlandish) message from Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer that Brexit can be made to work.

Of course it cannot, unless by “work” he is somehow portraying a permanent and major loss of UK economic output as a positive.

And we should remember that this is the man who argued so vociferously against Brexit in late 2019.

The UKICE report states: “As for Labour, its red lines on the EU relationship are now well worn - no rejoining the EU, single market or customs union - and the party has proposed some pragmatic steps to improve the working of the TCA (trade and cooperation agreement) and add to it in limited ways, including agreements on mobility, veterinary standards and security cooperation. Any gains from technical improvements will be relatively minimal: useful in reducing trade frictions, but not enough to really address the continuing economic impacts of Brexit.”

Labour’s signals on Europe have continued to be alarming.

It has, in terms of the key European issue, been the most demoralising of General Election campaigns.

Reform UK, with an ebullient Nigel Farage, has been whipping up the right of the political spectrum again.

And it seems that Labour, not just the Tories, has an eye on what is going on here in these utterly grim days of populism.

Professor Anand Menon, director of UKICE, says in his introduction to the UK-EU relations 2024 report: “No, UK-EU relations have not been a central issue in this election campaign. In fact, they’ve barely been mentioned at all. Yet this does not mean it will not be a major policy challenge following the election.”

For anyone who was still harbouring any hope that Labour might do something significant to mitigate the Brexit damage once elected, there was yet another blow last week.

Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner declared her party would never take the UK back into the EU or European single market if it wins power, during an ITV election debate last Thursday night.

Presenter Julie Etchingham asked Ms Rayner: "If elected, would you ever rejoin the EU or the single market?"

Ms Rayner said: "No.”

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Pressed again for clarity that a Labour government would never rejoin the EU or single market, the party’s deputy leader repeated: "No."

SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn said in last Thursday’s debate: "Do you want to know the biggest problem facing the UK economy right now? His [Nigel Farage’s] pet project of Brexit - £40 billion worth of tax receipts [gone]. And do you want to know what makes it worse? The Labour Party back Brexit as outlined by their manifesto today - shameful.”

Mr Flynn is absolutely right to highlight Brexit as the biggest problem facing the UK economy.

And presumably Labour would not dispute his assertion that it now backs Brexit.

It actually seems to back Brexit rather enthusiastically these days.

If anyone is in any doubt about the damage being done by Brexit, they can look at a raft of heavyweight analyses of the situation, including that from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility set up by the Conservatives themselves back in 2010.

OBR chairman Richard Hughes said in the spring of last year of Brexit’s effect: “We think that in the long run it reduces our overall output by around 4% compared with had we remained in the EU.”

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Centre for European Reform associate fellow John Springford has meanwhile estimated that Brexit had by the second quarter of 2022 reduced UK gross domestic product by 5.5%.

These are very big percentages indeed in the context of a loss of UK GDP.

UKICE notes the finding of its UK-EU relations 2024 report, which draws on discussions with key stakeholders, that the “EU may not be very receptive to Labour’s proposals, because UK relations are no longer a priority for it”. These are the Labour proposals which in any case are not sufficient to really address the continuing economic impacts of Brexit.

UKICE says: “To get the EU to negotiate, Labour would need to offer clear incentives, like a mobility agreement.”

So, as well as Labour’s proposals being very narrow in scope and not making much difference even if they were entertained, we have the likely difficulties in securing agreement on them with the EU.

Labour has recently, for reasons best known to itself, rejected European Commission proposals for a youth mobility scheme between the EU and UK, which it should be noted could have gone some way towards mitigating the huge damage done to the opportunities for young people by the Tory hard Brexit.

UKICE’s report also looks at how UK-EU relations have evolved in the past 18 months.

The think-tank concludes: “Despite the Windsor framework agreement, UK-EU political dialogue remains limited. The UK has failed to boost its trade with the rest of the world and the Government lacks a clear strategy for coping with EU regulatory changes, which ‘complicates life’ for British businesses.”

It adds: “There will be a number of challenges after polling day. The full implementation of both GB border controls and the Windsor framework could create new trade problems, while negotiations on Gibraltar and fisheries could cause friction. The application of EU law in Northern Ireland also looks likely to be a continued source of tension.”

The UK certainly does not have its troubles to seek in the wake of the Brexit folly.

UKICE notes that “despite all these challenges, Brexit has been notably absent in the election debate”.

It highlights “where voters are on the issue”, adding: “Current polling shows only 13% of voters believe it is one of the most important issues facing the country – down from a peak of 73% in 2019.”

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The interesting thing here is that voters seem to think the cost of living and the economy are important issues, and we should keep in mind the major bearing of Brexit on both of those.

It is a bit frustrating, to say the least, that Labour has not been brave enough to tell people that Brexit has driven up the cost of living and damaged the economy enormously.

UKICE senior researcher Joël Reland, says: “Labour has maintained a studied silence on Brexit in this election campaign, but if elected it will have to face up to some hard choices. Avoiding deals which involve alignment with the EU rules is the politically safer option, but this could well undermine its attempts to boost economic growth.”

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Mr Menon says: “While largely absent from the campaign, the UK’s relations with the EU are likely to be a key priority for a new government given not only the need to boost economic performance but also a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. It is far from clear, however, whether significant changes in the relationship will be possible.”

It is a most unhappy state of affairs.

Rejoining the European single market would, on any rational basis, provide a major and much-needed boost for the economy.

However, Labour has now said never. And never is a long time. It just gets worse and worse on this issue.

Sometimes the thought occurs that such wilful damage surely cannot go on for much longer. The fact that Labour and the Conservatives have both embraced the hard Brexit, however, signals otherwise.