The economy has been sharply in focus in the last week, with key indicators published for Scotland and the UK as a whole and politicians making their cases ahead of the July 4 General Election.
Starting with the good news, from a Scottish perspective, a survey published on Monday revealed the nation was a “standout” performer in a UK context in May.
Scottish private sector economic growth accelerated last month to the fastest pace in two years, as expansion in the UK as a whole slowed, the PMI (purchasing managers’ index) survey from Royal Bank of Scotland revealed.
And Scotland was behind only Northern Ireland in terms of the pace of private sector economic expansion.
Sebastian Burnside, chief economist of Royal Bank of Scotland, said: “The month's standout performers were Northern Ireland and Scotland, where rates of expansion went against the trend and accelerated. London has been leading the recovery up to now, but growth in the capital lost some momentum in May and was more aligned with the overall UK rate.”
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It goes without saying, of course, that Scotland achieved this strong performance in a tough UK economic climate.
Figures published by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday revealed that UK gross domestic product stagnated between March and April. The UK data could have been worse, but they were hardly uplifting.
Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said: “These figures suggest that the UK economy stumbled noticeably in April as poor weather and the lagged impact of previous interest rate rises weakened key drivers of GDP, notably manufacturing and construction.”
Mulling the outlook, he flagged a likely short-term fillip, partly from the Euro 2024 football tournament. However, he also highlighted longer-term challenges.
Mr Thiru said of the GDP figures: “This lacklustre outturn should be the low point, with the uplift to people’s incomes from weaker inflation likely to drive output higher in the coming months, aided by the expected boost to consumer activity from Euro 2024.”
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He added: “The longer-term outlook will be heavily influenced by the extent to which whoever wins the General Election is able to tackle the long-standing structural issues holding back our economy, including poor productivity and high economic inactivity.”
The challenges facing the UK economy were also highlighted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research think-tank.
Hailey Low, NIESR associate economist, said on Wednesday: “Today’s subdued GDP figures signal that the UK remains fragile on its route to a sustained economic recovery.
“However, the broader perspective remains an economy grappling with stagnation as low productivity and high economic inactivity curtail growth potential. Structural reforms and policies to boost public and private investment should be the focus for the next government.”
This hardly amounts to a glowing report card for the UK economy.
The economy was also in focus in a BBC debate featuring the leaders of five of Scotland’s political parties on Tuesday.
What stood out in this debate, as noted in my column in The Herald on Friday, was a reluctance by Scottish Conservatives leader Douglas Ross to accept his party has been responsible for much of the economic woe throughout the UK, including in Scotland.
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Mr Ross declared: “We have gone through global events that have been a real strain on our economy, and it’s had a huge impact on people in this room and people across the country.
“If we look at the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine, there has been a massive shock to not only our domestic economy but economies across the globe and the Government at a UK level have tried to provide some universal support and some targeted support.”
However, the UK’s economic woes have of course not even nearly all been the result of “global events”.
My column observed: “Mr Ross did not…mention Brexit, the devastating impact of which has been highlighted by many experts as well as business leaders.
“It was a UK Government decision, specifically by the Tories, to have a hard Brexit and leave the European single market and customs union, losing the huge twin benefits of free movement of people between the country and the European Economic Area and frictionless trade with our biggest trading partner.”
It added: “While many countries have had inflation problems, the woe on this front in the UK has been particularly bad. And it is plain that the UK’s peculiar inflation troubles have stemmed in large part from the aforementioned hard Brexit.
“Furthermore, Mr Ross did not address the impact of the Tories’ failed austerity policies on the economy, households and businesses.”
There are undoubtedly major economic challenges for whoever forms the next UK government.
However, surely a basic recognition of what the UK’s problems are, and the cause of them, would be the best starting point from which to tackle these difficulties.
That is not to say that addressing the problems will be easy.
The hard Brexit trouble is, of course, an easier problem to solve, by moving to rejoin the European single market and thus regain the huge twin benefits of frictionless trade and free movement of people.
That said, both Labour and the Conservatives seem quite content to persevere with the hard Brexit. They appear to see no problem with it.
Given this is one of the far easier woes to identify and tackle, the failure of Labour and the Tories to do so does not bode well for anyone hoping the next UK government will deliver some better economic times.
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