If 2019 was a ‘Brexit election’, it could be argued that this summer’s unexpected general election is shaping up to be a ‘public services’ election. Opinion polls place public services – especially the NHS, but also education in Scotland in particular – at the top of the public’s list of issues that will shape how they vote on July 4th, well ahead of constitutional issues like Brexit or, in Scotland, independence.

New Ipsos research out this week shows that people across the UK are extremely pessimistic about the recent direction of public services – and people in Scotland are among the most gloomy. Just 4% of Scots feel that public services as a whole have improved in the last 5 years, compared with 81% who say they have got worse – a ‘net’ score of -77, compared with -70 for the UK as a whole.

Looking across the English regions and devolved nations, only people in Wales are more downbeat (with a ‘net’ score of -81). A more detailed look at satisfaction with individual services shows that there are no services with which over half of people in Scotland are satisfied. Provision of recycling facilities attracts the most satisfaction, with 49% satisfied and 30% dissatisfied, while people in Scotland are particularly negative about the state of our roads, with 84% dissatisfied with road maintenance and just 5% satisfied.

Hospital waiting lists are frustrating votersHospital waiting lists are frustrating voters (Image: free)

Overall, GP services are one of the services people are more satisfied with. However, those satisfied (42%) with GP services only just outnumber those dissatisfied (39%). And comparing findings from this latest survey with one conducted by Ipsos in 2021, GPs, along with hospitals, are among the services that have seen the sharpest falls in public satisfaction – the proportion satisfied with these NHS services has dropped by 28 points and 37 points, respectively, in just three years. Other services that have seen particularly steep declines in satisfaction include the police and schools. However, for all the services Ipsos asked about in both 2021 and 2024, satisfaction is now lower.

At the UK-wide level, our data shows that the perceived deterioration of public services is largely attributed to UK Government policies – 45% think public services have got worse because of policies implemented by the UK government. Rising inflation (40%) and poor management of within the public sector (39%) are also common explanations.

Of course, in a devolved context, who the public blame for perceived falling standards may be more complicated. While the Scottish Government sets policies for the NHS and schools in Scotland, the overall budget envelope for running those services is largely determined by the UK Government – a point often referenced by the SNP when under fire for performance in these areas.

And this greater complexity is reflected in the Scottish data. Scots, on balance, appear more likely to blame the UK government than the Scottish Government – 41% mention UK government policies as a factor in falling standards in public services, while 25% mention Scottish Government policies. The Scottish public recognises other factors too – 39% mention the rising costs of providing services due to inflation, and 35% think the effect of Brexit has had an impact (a little higher, if anything, than the 31% in England who said the same).

However, any comfort the SNP Scottish Government might take from the greater apparent willingness of the Scottish public to blame the UK government for failings in public services should be tempered by findings from other Ipsos Scotland polling, which shows that the public do not think they have been doing a good job in the key areas of education and the NHS.

In March 2024, just 22% said the Scottish Government had done a good job of improving the NHS in Scotland, compared with 56% who said they had done a bad job. Similarly, only 22% said they had done a good job of improving the education system, while 48% felt they had done a bad job.

If Scots are still more inclined to attribute more blame to the Conservative UK Government for falling standards in public services, this clearly does not mean they are letting the Scottish Government off the hook.

Only 22% of Scots said the Scottish Government had done a good job of improving the education system, while 48% felt they had done a bad jobOnly 22% of Scots said the Scottish Government had done a good job of improving the education system, while 48% felt they had done a bad job (Image: free)

On the other hand, neither does it necessarily mean the Scottish public are convinced that Labour – presenting themselves as the party of change in both Scotland and the wider-UK – are likely to turn things around. On the NHS, while 32% thought a Labour Scottish Government would do a better job than the SNP, 30% thought they would make no difference (19% said they’d do worse, and 17% were unsure). A similar pattern was apparent for education.

At a more general level, the Scottish public are highly sceptical that it will be possible to turn around struggling public services in the next 2-3 years – just 11% think it’s likely they will improve in this timeframe (lower than the 17% who said this across the UK as a whole). Even projecting a decade ahead, just 32% of Scots think it’s likely that public services will see improvement in the next 10 years (compared with 42% for the UK as a whole).

So where does this leave the parties ahead of the general election? Put simply, it leaves them all with a mountain to climb in terms of convincing the Scottish public they can make a real difference to the state of public services.

All three of the biggest parties in Scotland face an electorate that appears deeply sceptical that any of them can improve things. And whatever the outcome on July 4th, both the new UK Government and the Scottish Government are going to have their work cut out to turn around both public services, and public opinion ahead of Holyrood elections in 2026.

Rachel Ormston is a Research Director at Ipsos in Scotland