Nigel Farage and Scottish Tories: a help or hindrance?

There he is, the regulars would say to any stranger who asked, good old Nigel. Likes a snifter, politics as whiffy as his Labradors, fond of telling anyone who will listen that “nothing in this country works any more”. As for that other business, you know, the foreigner stuff, well, he doesn’t mean any harm, not really.

Tip of the hat to the new leader of Reform UK, he is not wasting his time with dog whistle politics or any other attempts at subtlety. He just puts his lips together and blows, and the media comes running. They did so on Monday for his “emergency general election announcement” - how very Dad’s Army - and for yesterday’s launch of his bid, eighth time lucky, to become an MP, this time for Clacton.

It is Boris and Have I Got News for You, and Trump and The Apprentice, all over again: vaguely amusing, if you like that sort of knockoff, faux Wodehousian kind of thing, until it is not.

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According to the man himself, the country should be grateful to Mr Farage for “gingering up” a dull election, much in the way that a bout of food poisoning livens up Christmas. Just as we shall always remember Christmas 2022 as the one spent chuntering into the toilet bowl, so the general election of 2024 will forever be the meteor that cast the Conservatives into oblivion.

“The Conservatives are on the verge of total collapse and frankly it couldn’t happen to nicer people,” declared Mr Farage at teatime on Monday. Less than an hour later a YouGov super poll arrived to confirm a bad day for Rishi Sunak. Not only was Keir Starmer about to do better than Blair with 422 seats, the Tories would be reduced from 344 MPs at dissolution to 140.

That would mean cheerio to Jeremy Hunt and Grant Shapps. Penny Mordaunt would have to find another sword-carrying gig. No more safe seats, everyone at risk of being Portilloed. And this, remember, was before Mr Farage announced that he had changed his mind about standing. After that, even 140 MPs began to look optimistic.

No wonder Rishi Sunak looked slightly deflated as he headed towards the ITV debate. Just when he might have thought the bad luck was running out, Farage said he was running.

Do we care if the Tories go the way of the dodo and the dinosaur, Opal Fruits and Marathon bars? After all, as Mr Farage put it, it couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of people. And yet, and yet. Consider the reaction when former First Minister Humza Yousaf said he wanted to make Scotland “Tory free”. Even within the SNP that was seen as over the top, anti-democratic even.

I would imagine, too, that there was some groaning in Starmer’s office at the size of the Labour victory being predicted in the YouGov poll. It risks harming turnout - why bother to add one more vote to the pile - and boosts Mr Sunak’s underdog status.

Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross (Image: free)

There is something unsavoury, even dangerous, about this talk of electoral annihilations, wipeouts, blood baths and the like. Haven’t we learned from the independence referendum, and the Brexit vote, that things said in the heat of the moment can take a long time to smooth over? Sometimes the verbal wounds will never heal.

As for welcoming Mr Farage’s move as a way to liven up a dull election, there is a place for fun and games in politics and it usually has Ed Davey’s name on it. Elections are not held to give Mr Farage something to do in an otherwise dull June while we wait for the Euros to start.

There is another reason to regret Mr Farage’s decision to stand - the man is toxic. Interviewed on Today, he lost no time in confirming this by making the election about immigration and playing the D-card - not Donald, deportation. He is only just getting started. There are another four weeks of this. Who knows the depths to which he will drag UK politics to punish the Tories for not loving him as much as he feels they should.

Reform UK was caught on the hop by Rishi Sunak’s election announcement, but according to the party’s website, organisers are in place across the UK, including Scotland, and announcements about prospective parliamentary candidates are due soon. We shall see. The application form to become a PPC was yesterday out of action.

Regardless of how many people stand, Mr Farage and his party will from now enjoy endless amounts of free publicity to punt their tatty wares. Their push for votes begins with Friday’s seven-way debate - God help us - on the BBC. Mr Farage is expected to be there, as is Angela Rayner.

As we have seen in the past, Scotland seems more immune to Mr Farage’s supposed charm than other parts of the UK. I seem to recall that on a previous visit to these parts he had to be locked in an Edinburgh pub for his own safety. Will the Scotland of 2024 take just as dim a view of Mr Farage and his party’s policies? The experiment might be interesting but I can live without knowing.

You don’t have to be Rishi Sunak to find Nigel Farage’s entry into this election depressing. Here is a strange thing, however. In reminding people how poisonous politics can be when it lurches to the right, Mr Farage has done moderate, mainstream Tories, of the kind that exist in Scotland, a huge favour. Compared to him, they are wonderful sorts, and well worth having around. The Nigel effect could be the saving of the Scottish Conservatives yet.