Indy is a problem for SNP now - and soon will be for Labour

There is no question that independence has fallen down the political agenda. In the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, the Scottish Election Study found a "strong and substantial" relationship between independence support and voting for the SNP. Indeed, a Survation poll on the eve of the vote found that nine in 10 independence supporters intended to vote for a pro-independence party. An Ipsos poll found that half of all voters said that independence was a "very important" issue in deciding who to vote for.

Fast forward to today, and Survation’s latest poll, taken over last weekend, found that just six in 10 pro-independence voters now intend to vote for a pro-independence party while a quarter now intend to vote for Labour. A poll conducted by More In Common last week found that just a fifth of voters now say that independence is an important issue in determining who they will vote for, including just under two in five past SNP voters.

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Why this has happened is fairly obvious: the UK Supreme Court decision in November 2022 ended any hope of the Scottish Parliament holding even an advisory referendum on independence without Westminster’s consent, and with no prospect of such consent being forthcoming the independence movement hit a brick wall. Alternative routes to establishing popular support for independence, like the SNP’s de facto referendum proposal, pose significant political risks and ultimately bring us back to the issue of Westminster consent. The basic power structures of the British state are such that the independence movement is stuck in a political cul-de-sac.

But the nation is nevertheless hungry for change, and with it clear to pro-independence voters that independence is not a realistic prospect, they are looking for change within the Union. Their pro-independence viewpoint is no longer a guarantee of their support for pro-independence parties.

The more the SNP talks about independence in this election, the more those supporters who know that independence isn’t a realistic prospect will switch off to them. It has reverted to two narratives that have worked in the past: that only the SNP can stand up for Scotland at Westminster, and that voting SNP is the best way to combat the Conservatives.

The problem here is three-fold. First, Labour has developed a reasonable retort to the argument that SNP MPs are best placed to stand up for Scotland: that Scottish Labour MPs would be representing Scottish interests at the heart of government, not just advocating from the Opposition benches. That might not matter if we were heading for a hung Parliament in which the SNP could argue it would hold Labour’s feet to the fire, but we are not.

Secondly, the threat that SNP voters feel comes from Conservative governments is shortly to be neutralised by their defeat in the election. Frankly, unless you live in a Conservative-held seat, why care if they keep their six MPs in Scotland?

Anas Sarwar and Sir Keir Starmer need not mention independence once, either positively or negatively (Image: PA)

Thirdly, neither of these arguments presents a compelling reason to vote SNP and not Labour. Now, the SNP is not entirely to blame for the failure to develop an effective narrative to counter Labour. Labour has no recent record to attack, and its opposition to independence matters far less to voters than it used to. That might not be the case come 2026, but it is the reality right now. There is an independence-shaped rupture at the heart of SNP strategy, one these classic nationalist narratives cannot come close to filling.

By the same token, the Scottish Conservatives are struggling to make themselves relevant in this campaign. They cannot run on their dismal record in government, are left holding the bag for the cost of living crisis (fairly or not), and seem to only have anti-independence sentiment to fall back on. Except Labour have neutralised this weakness too – gone are the days when there was any question over the strength of Labour’s anti-independence position. Theirs is the most core vote of core vote strategies.

The beneficiary of the decline in the importance of independence to Scottish politics is the Labour Party, for all of the reasons I’ve just set out. Anas Sarwar and Sir Keir Starmer need not mention independence once, either positively or negatively – indeed, the less talked about independence is, the better it is for them.

But even for Labour, the constitutional question looms. It will soon become the governing party of a set of institutions that are viewed extremely negatively by most Scots, even more so and with greater fervour among Scots who support Scottish independence. In Scotland, Labour will win seats with votes borrowed from both sides of that divide - unionists sick of the Conservatives, some of whom will tactically vote Labour, and secessionists who desire change within the Union, but ultimately hope also to become an independent country.

To hold that coalition together will be difficult, and its foundation must be success in government. A Labour government perceived to have failed, with a Conservative government its only realistic alternative within the Union, would supercharge pro-independence sentiment. Thus far, Labour’s strategy to win power has been likened to gingerly carrying a Ming vase across a recently polished floor - in government, it must be much bolder in its efforts to transform Britain if they are to prevent the resuscitation of the Scottish independence movement.

This election may not be about independence, but its fingerprints are everywhere: we live in a post-2014 world. Scotland’s politics and our politicians remain haunted by the prospect of independence and a world that was never fully formed but has not, a decade on from the referendum, faded from the Scottish political imagination.