Pity the poor SNP support. It’s been a bad couple of seasons generally but recent poor performance could mean humiliating relegation awaits.

The thing is, it shouldn’t be like this. The SNP are in a difficult place, for sure, but they also have the opportunity for a fresh start. John Swinney became First Minister with the reputation of being a better politician than his predecessor. He had a decent public approval rating. He was the safe pair of hands. That man knows a thing or two about election campaigns, the party faithful must have thought. We can finally get on the front foot – so they believed.

Most importantly, the SNP, for all their many failures, have stuff on arch-rivals Labour. They have been mitigating Westminster benefits cuts, like the bedroom tax, and introducing new benefits, like the Scottish Child Payment, while Labour won’t commit to dumping the two-child limit. As a devolved government at one remove from responsibility for Britain’s economy, the SNP have the luxury of being able to attack Labour’s fiscal conservatism. They can embarrass Labour over Brexit. They’ve taken a firmer position on Gaza. The party even has the veneer of uneasy unity, for now. These things give them a half-decent story to tell on the doorstep – or something to say that deflects attention away from a certain police inquiry, at any rate.

A reversal of fortunes is pretty much impossible to envisage, but you might expect the polls to narrow a bit as election day approaches.

The trouble is, it all counts for nothing unless the SNP can throw off its air of entitlement and decrepitude.

READ MORE BY REBECCA MCQUILLAN

Could this be the thing that spells the end of the union?

What is a woman? There’s a simple answer to that

The loss of public support they’ve already experienced calls for humility. But John Swinney’s defence of his good friend Michael Matheson has handed his opponents wounding attack lines by making him appear very much to be “looking after his mates”. The SNP sowed confusion about its position in the run-up to yesterday’s bad-tempered debate and vote on Mr Matheson, leading to jeers Mr Swinney had “u-turned on his u-turn”. Eventually SNP MSPs abstained on the vote and Mr Matheson was sanctioned, though MSPs also agreed the complaints process should be reviewed. It must have left even Humza Yousaf watching between his fingers.

How, one wonders, does the new SNP leader expect to lead his party to victory like this?

Professor James Mitchell, the respected authority on nationalist politics, is typically withering. He suggests that had veteran political adviser Kevin Pringle still had Mr Swinney’s ear (Pringle was not rehired after Humza Yousaf stood down), the First Minister wouldn’t have gone down this road. The not-very-flattering implication is that without a wiser hand to guide him, Mr Swinney is a bit of a liability to himself.

The SNP is now trying to regain the initiative, so what can it do?

The latest poll - the first since the election was announced - is dire for the nationalists. In 2019, the SNP won 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats before losing three to defections, one in a by-election and one by expelling an MP (Angus MacNeil). This latest poll suggests that the SNP could see their remaining 43 seats drop to 16, while Labour would go up from two to 28 (the Tories would take eight and the Lib Dems five).

Yep, that’s way bad. The days when SNP leaders could just throw a tin of yellow paint at a map of Scotland are long gone. The party’s Westminster leader Stephen Flynn’s insistence that they can regain all their seats and win more sounds deluded. With bad polls setting expectations, a good result for the SNP would be to retain 30 seats and lose just the 13. Such are the vagaries of the first-past-the-post electoral system that even with a relatively modest improvement in the SNP’s popularity, that should be possible in theory, but it’s looking pretty unlikely in reality.

Of course we can’t predict. We all know what election campaigns are like. They’re notoriously anarchic. Parties talk about controlling the narrative but they never really do. Every misfired remark is amplified and unscripted events torpedo the best laid plans. Stories move on fast.

For the SNP right now, perhaps that’s a good thing. If you’re going to mess something up, this is the week to do it because by next week we’ll all be goggling at something else. Mr Swinney just has to make sure that something is not him, again.

But some campaign focus and discipline will be required. The SNP must focus on taking the fight to Labour (whose handling of Diane Abbott has been almost as bad as the SNP’s handling of the Matheson affair).

The Herald: The Scottish Parliament has voted to suspend Michael MathesonThe Scottish Parliament has voted to suspend Michael Matheson (Image: PA)

Mr Swinney and colleagues also need to rein in the independence chat. There’s an understanding among voters that it’s not happening any time soon and it’s a long way down the birthday list even for many supporters. Even so, SNP figures can’t keep away from it. Mr Flynn was insisting yesterday that if the SNP win a majority of constituencies, it will be a mandate for independence. Pollster Mark Diffley calls that “a core vote strategy” that might be useful in preventing firm independence supporters from “drifting away” to Labour but could put off soft nationalists who simply don’t see it as the priority.

So the do’s and don’ts are clear but even if the SNP follows them, this election will be a toughie for the party. Scottish voters are no longer charmed by the party. They are also feeling the excitement of impending change and the tug towards being part of it if they cast their vote for Labour. Hand of history and all that. Folk could do with a bit of the feelgood factor and it’s Labour that can deliver them that.

And if things do go badly for the SNP next month, it would be the first poor result in over a decade and would change the way voters saw them. Losing can be habit-forming.

So for the sake of the SNP support, Mr Swinney needs to get his act together. This isn’t a friendly.