Watching Rishi Sunak announce a summer General Election last week, it was difficult to shake the notion that he actually believes the Conservatives have done a good job on the economy.
It might beggar belief that this is his view but Mr Sunak did certainly appear to trot out what he perceives to be his economic credentials with a straight face and even an earnest expression.
Among what he regards as his achievements, seemingly, is the fall in annual UK consumer prices index inflation back to only a bit above the 2% target. It came in at 2.3% in April, official figures revealed last week.
Mr Sunak did not mention the significant part the Conservatives played in driving annual CPI inflation to a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022.
Among the key factors in the inflation woe in the UK being so much worse than that in many other countries is, of course, the Tory hard Brexit.
Commenting on the inflation situation in June last year, former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member and eminent economist Danny Blanchflower declared: “Brexit and its devastating impact on supply chains, especially for food, is what sets the UK apart from every other country.”
It is a simple truth – Brexit is absolutely what sets the UK apart.
There was chatter last Wednesday, as Mr Sunak announced he was going to the polls on July 4, that he believed he could convince people he had somehow sorted out the UK economy given the fall in inflation and that he should be allowed to finish the job.
If that is true, it is surely an incredible point of view.
We had more of the studied talk from Mr Sunak about how tough things have been for ordinary households and so forth, in what looked like an effort at empathy. Whether it is his intention of not, however, this messaging comes across as most condescending. And more importantly, given what Conservative policies have done to people on the lowest incomes, it rings hollow.
The fact of the matter is that ill-judged economic policies have been the hallmark of the Conservatives ever since they came to power in 2010.
We have had the Tories’ savage austerity programme. This continues to weigh heavily on aggregate demand in the UK, as well as having made life miserable for millions of households.
Then of course we have had the Tory hard Brexit. Sadly, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has now embraced this folly, vowing that his party will not take the UK back into the single market or even the customs union if it wins the election.
The Confederation of British Industry in Scotland highlighted continued rises in costs for businesses and households, and the dampening impact of these, as it responded to Mr Sunak’s announcement of a summer election.
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Tracy Black, CBI devolved nations ambassador, said: “Right now, too many businesses and households still face rising costs which delay investment decisions and dampen consumer spending.”
Ms Black also talked of “momentous challenges” to “get the UK economy firing on all cylinders and deliver sustainable growth for the benefit of our society”.
“Momentous” is certainly not overstating the economic challenges faced by the UK.
That makes it all the more frustrating that the easy win, of rejoining the European single market and regaining the benefits of frictionless trade with the UK’s biggest trading partner and of free movement of people between Britain and the European Economic Area, has been ruled out by Labour as well as by the Tory Brexiters.
Turning to more encouraging matters, there was some most heartening news last week on Scotland’s continuing strength when it comes to winning foreign direct investment (FDI) in the key financial services sector.
The nation continues to attract the highest number of financial services FDI projects in the UK outside London, with Scotland increasing its tally last year, the latest attractiveness survey for this sector from accountancy firm EY showed.
Nine financial services FDI projects were won by Scotland in 2023, up from eight in the previous year.
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Of financial services investors looking to establish or expand operations in the UK over the next year, 26% are looking to Scotland, up from 14% in 2023, according to the EY survey. This forward-looking indicator provides much room for optimism about what the future might hold.
Among other positive news on the business and economic front last week was the continued resurgence of Marks & Spencer.
Chief executive Stuart Machin declared his confidence that the retailer’s “plan is working” as he unveiled a hike in annual profits and highlighted 12 consecutive quarters of sales growth in Marks & Spencer’s clothing and home, and food businesses.
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The retailer reported a surge in underlying pre-tax profits to £716.4 million in the year to March 30, from £453.3m in the prior 12 months.
Russ Mould, investment director at stockbroker AJ Bell, observed: “As Marks & Spencer knows from first-hand experience, corporate turnarounds are tricky to achieve and even harder to sustain. There tend to be some quick wins but changing the culture is harder than climbing Mount Everest and it’s easy for businesses to slip into old habits, often to their detriment.
“Judging by Marks & Spencer’s latest results, it might be one of the select few companies to achieve permanent change. The turnaround story has been years in the making and it finally looks like the retailer has cracked it.”
It certainly has been quite the turnaround.
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