So-called ‘progressive taxation’ has failed - as we all knew it would

In truth, he hasn’t had to do much. This is not a pejorative remark - Mr Sarwar’s obvious competence and electability has helped transform Scottish Labour from the third party, polling something around one-in-five votes, to the alternative government, polling around one-in-three.

However, these voters have come to him; he has not gone to them. The defanging of the constitutional debate and the inevitability of Sir Keir Starmer becoming Prime Minister has led to the transactional Conservative vote - voters who are not ideological Tories but vote for the party best placed to protect the UK union - transferring wholesale to Labour.

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And the slow tarnishing of the SNP, which sped up during the coalition with the Greens, has created a steady flow towards Labour of voters who remain supportive of independence, but for whom the economy and public services are higher priorities.

But that was a month ago. Mr Sarwar’s opponents were Humza Yousaf and Patrick Harvie. The government was travelling in the left lane, veering occasionally into the hard shoulder. The business community and those interested in economic growth were aghast, and were flocking to Mr Sarwar, not necessarily out of enthusiasm but out of desperation, with a feeling that by jumping onto the red bus, driving in the centre lane, it couldn’t possibly get any worse.

Today, Mr Sarwar faces a significantly more challenging environment. The disillusioned, centrist voter now has John Swinney, and they will, at the very least, give him a fair hearing. And the business community, along with those focussed on a growing economy, now have Kate Forbes, whom they wanted all along, and who excites them significantly more than any other leading politician in the devolution era.

So, Mr Sarwar no longer has the luxury of simply not being ’the other guy’. If he wants voters to buy into him, he is going to have to sharpen his pencil.

His messages, so far, have been mixed. He has said that his “number one priority” is economic growth, with an economic directorate in his office as First Minister. In most other countries that would not need to be said; only in Scotland do we seem troubled by the axiomatic reality that public services are funded by the tax revenues generated from a growing economy. However, it is positive that he has said it out loud.

Anas Sarwar (Image: free)

Nonetheless, his apparent criticism of Mr Swinney “shifting more to the right” in contrast to Nicola Sturgeon’s “social policy-led” government was a worrying indication that Mr Sarwar may try to outflank Mr Swinney on his left.

That would be a dismal move both for Labour and for the country. Facing the prospect of an electoral choice between two economy-focussed centrists, the last thing we need is one of them moving back to leftist stagnation.

Our national experiment to suppress the importance of economic growth has damaged us. So-called ‘progressive taxation’, a misnomer beloved of self-important left wing academics who have never worked in the engine of economic growth, has failed in all the ways we knew it would. People who live here have changed their behaviour, such as the doctors reducing their hours in the NHS to reduce their marginal tax liability, and the companies (particularly in the financial sector) who need more middle- and high-level management in Scotland cannot persuade them to locate in Scotland.

Private investment in housing - critical to solving the housing emergency which was declared earlier this week - is sitting on the sidelines. The housing crisis in Scotland, from owned to rented to social, can be summarised in one word: supply. Building at scale is significantly harder when the investors perceive a hostile environment created by self-defeating crowd-pleasers like rent controls and limitations on short-term letting.

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Mr Sarwar cannot be tempted to fall into the trap of believing that embracing this ‘guff and fluff’ will send him to government. It won’t. This election will be won from the centre, not from the left.

Notwithstanding the need for some more mettle in his economic policy, Mr Sarwar must be commended for committing to decentralising Scotland. This is not sexy politics, at least not yet, but in the final analysis it may be the most important thing he does if he becomes First Minister. Scotland has been increasingly centralised under successive SNP governments, with our regions, islands, cities and towns having very little control over their own destinies, waiting instead for the dead hand of Edinburgh to impact its wisdom upon them.

Mr Sarwar’s proposal for elected mayors needs meat, but the prospect of Scotland once again having strong regions with responsibility for healthcare and education, strategic transport and housing, as well as local economic development and taxation, would be a welcome nudge towards a mainstream European governance model for Scotland, and will help to power Scotland’s future economic engines, which are in rural rather than urban areas.

Crucially, it is a move that no other leader will make, giving Mr Sarwar a unique selling point which can be made tangible to the electorate.

The Swinney-Forbes era may be here too late to save the SNP. Mr Sarwar may have a level of momentum which cannot be reversed. But, at the very least, the power shift is less certain now than it was a month ago. If that makes Mr Sarwar refine, improve and articulate his pitch to the voters, then it will be a welcome addition to the bank of optimism upon which we are all going to need to draw if we want to see Scotland renewed.

• Andy Maciver is Founding Director of Message Matters and Zero Matters