Congratulations Mr Swinney - your troubles are just starting

Midweek, I chanced to be in Holyrood’s Garden Lobby as the turmoil swirled. From Opposition parties, a sense of grim determination. From the SNP, the slipping smile of disquiet and fear.

At which point enter John Swinney, declining, as he put it, to walk on by. He cut a deal with Kate Forbes, he declared his intention to refocus party and government closer to the centre of politics. This scenario, this succession, is pretty much the last thing Mr Swinney envisaged.

The last time around: Scottish National Party leader John Swinney thanks supporters after being elected by a margin of two to one over rival candidate Alex Neil at the SNP conference at the Eden Court Theatre in Inverness (Image: free)

In a curious way, it reminds me of the late Alistair Darling, the Labour Chancellor who confronted the banking crash and was then prevailed upon to lead the campaign against independence in 2014. Mr Darling was somewhat less than eager. He had to be cajoled. But, having agreed, he thrust himself into the contest with vigour and vim. (Nationalists will recall the outcome.)

John Swinney had comparable doubts. What about his family? Was it not time to settle down – rather than leading the battle to settle up with the Union? Had he not looked to a “new generation” of Nationalists? And yet. The party he joined as a teenager was facing a genuine, full-blown crisis – partly from circumstance and partly from a blunder by Humza Yousaf in peremptorily ending the governing pact with the Greens.

En passant, let me say that Mr Yousaf contrived to leave office with a degree of dignity restored. He turned away from a prospective deal with Alba which he saw as more trouble than a single Holyrood vote was worth.

And so the baton passes to John Swinney. During the period of SNP government, he has been a Minister for 16 years – and an observer for one year. That prolonged period in office gives him the experience to lead. That year, gazing on, gives him the perspective to conclude that the best-laid schemes had gone agley. Hence the reset. Hence the focus upon economic growth to raise revenue for improving public services. Hence the caveat to climate action – that Ministers must “take people and business with us”. Hence the emphasis on popular concerns. So the NHS, education, justice. The cost of living, poverty. No mention whatsoever of gender issues and culture wars. Hence too the search for a more “cohesive” party.

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An intriguing term; broader, less glib than “unity”. Under Nicola Sturgeon, there was muttering about government by coterie, by cabal. Somewhat unfair, I always felt, but there it is. Under Humza Yousaf, there was more open discontent, there was talk of drift, of indecision. Again, I think he was better than frequently depicted – but the times were against him.

Enough, says Mr Swinney. Unity cannot be imposed. Leaders must be open to question. A cohesive party requires open discussion, with all sectors and wings co-operating. Including fretful MPs, who face an upcoming contest.

Back to that “look-ahead” news release. Let us essay a similar endeavour for John Swinney, the unexpected leader.

Firstly, he has to be confirmed as SNP chief when nominations close on Monday. I think he can be fairly confident. Kate Forbes scarcely provided an effusive declaration of support. Her disappointment was palpable. No appearance at the Swinney launch. Simply a written statement. But it was sufficient.

He had offered enough – on the economy, on climate action, on a new moderate focus – to win her backing. They had, she said, a “powerful common purpose”. But will that common purpose survive and thrive in the clanjamfrie of Scottish politics?

Secondly, in our lookahead, Mr Swinney has to be selected as Holyrood’s nominee to the King for the post of First Minister. Again, I think he can be optimistic. For all the anxious talk, the SNP are the biggest party in Holyrood by a stretch. Who is entitled to occupy Bute House if not them?

Further, I think the Greens will follow the logic of their vote against the Labour motion of no confidence in the entire Scottish Government. They make a distinction between criticising Humza Yousaf individually – and bringing down the entire house of cards. I know some resent Green influence over the choice of SNP leader. The Greens made plain they could not work with Kate Forbes, given her views on moral matters.

How will the Greens react to the new political reality? (Image: free)

However, I believe such angst is misplaced. The SNP are perfectly free to choose their own leader. The Greens are also free to outline the consequences. Welcome to realpolitik.

Once installed, Mr Swinney has to reshape his team, to focus upon his declared priorities. He has promised a “significant” role for the “intelligent, creative, thoughtful” Kate Forbes. A major portfolio? Something economic, with redrawn remits?

Then, thirdly, it really starts. Mr Swinney’s newly cohesive team has to work within a decidedly fragmented Parliament. He needs support – or, at least, tolerance – from other parties for legislation to pass. The Bute House agreement is no more. So he will seek deals on an individual basis with individual parties. Which is going to be tough. Especially when it comes to the annual budget, the vote which defines an administration.

Under Bute House, the Greens agreed to endorse “supply” – aka cash. No more. And they will not welcome Mr Swinney’s words. Their talk this week was still of fiscal redistribution, not wealth creation. But perhaps, in calmer times, talks might reopen. Or there could be a pitch to other parties. Not easy given their adherence to the Union. Enter George Adam, the SNP’s Business Minister and the quintessence of guile.

Finally, stage four for Mr Swinney. Convincing the people of Scotland that he is on their side. Ultimately, to advance the cause of independence. For now, though, the more immediate challenge. Political survival.