In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity. These words were first attributed to the Chinese general Sun Tzu over 2,500 years ago, but they should also, today, be plastered all over the wall of Humza Yousaf’s office.

The First Minister has had a turbulent and, at times, chaotic first year in office. Some of the issues are wholly owned by Mr Yousaf. But most of them have been inherited. Operation Branchform, the police investigation into the SNP’s finances, was not the fault of Mr Yousaf. There is nothing he can go about that; it is outwith his control.

The Bute House Agreement, the coalition with Scotland’s Greens, was also not the fault of Mr Yousaf. However, unlike Operation Branchform, it is within his control. And today, for a variety of reasons which will take up a huge number of column inches over the coming days and weeks, he has taken control.

Yesterday’s defenestration of the Greens is only part one. It is an important part, for sure. In 2021, the SNP’s leadership was battered by Parliamentary defeats, bruised by its near-miss in its attempts to win a majority, and desperate for enhanced numbers both to make Holyrood an easier place, and to show Westminster a clear majority in favour of independence.

The Greens were there with open arms. And, let’s take our political hats off to them, because they exploited the vulnerability of the SNP to their significant advantage. I have nothing but admiration and respect for the strategic, political coup they pulled off, and the extraordinary sway they have held since, led in the main by Ross Greer, the most influential backbencher in the history of devolution.

Many Greens say now, with justification, that the policy difficulties attributed to them - such as Highly Protected Marine Areas (HPMAs), the rent cap in the private sector and the focus on gender-affirming ideology - were existing SNP policies.

They were. But the SNP of old would, firstly, not put policies like that at the centre of its agenda, and would, secondly, elegantly reverse out of them upon realising how electorally calamitous they were.


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Let’s take gender ideology. Polling returns show that it is in the top three priorities of around two per cent of voters. The economy and the health service, on the other hand, are in the top three priorities of around 60%, with a host of other issues in the thirties and forties. Devoting so much political capital to a tiny minority issue is bad enough. But then being on the wrong side of that minority issue, and galvanising the country against you, is quite another. Dr Hilary Cass has demolished both the concept and the practice of gender-affirming care for children, primarily young girls, highlighting the overbearing ideological pressure doctors face when making a clinical decision about a child who they consider is significantly more likely to either be gay, or anxious, or neurodiverse, than to be transgender.

Parents around the country are incandescent. The SNP of old would have been out of that snake pit long ago, but the preservation of the coalition has prevented such pragmatism.

So, the end of the coalition is part one. But it is not enough. The SNP remains in trouble, and polling remains weak. Labour might still win the General Election in Scotland, and the SNP cabinet secretaries might be looking at two years to save their careers.

What that cabinet, that party and this country now needs is Humza Yousaf 2.0. A Humza Yousaf who extracts opportunity from chaos.

Immediately, there is a bonus. Those SNP MSPs who have been displaying a rebellious streak in recent weeks will now stop. They would no longer be rebelling against the Greens; they’d be rebelling against the SNP, and that will not be quite so well received.

However the first major opportunity will come in June. The Economy Secretary, Mairi McAllan, will go on maternity leave. One of the very best and brightest, she will be a loss to Mr Yousaf and the Government. But, again, chaos and opportunity. Her temporary departure lends itself to a cabinet reshuffle, and Humza Yousaf 2.0 should exploit that to the full.

There is no greater signal to the country that the SNP is moving back to the centre ground, rejecting unpopular social fluff and focusing on the people’s priorities, than bringing his leadership opponent, Kate Forbes, back into government.

Ms Forbes should be given a new role as Cabinet Secretary for Economic Growth, in effect merging the finance and economy portfolios, with a remit to focus exclusively on growing the economy which, ultimately, funds everything else the country does, from health, to education, to homes, to transport. Along with her, out-of-favour Ivan McKee, Michelle Thomson and Ben Macpherson should be brought into government. This country cannot afford to have its best talent sitting on the sidelines.

The Herald: Ross Greer: 'The most influential backbencher in the history of devolution'Ross Greer: 'The most influential backbencher in the history of devolution' (Image: PA)

Ms Forbes, during the leadership campaign, famously created the strapline “continuity won’t cut it”. Well, continuity hasn’t cut it, and today’s chaos provides an unmissable opportunity for Mr Yousaf to reject continuity and embrace change.

In addition to unifying his party and providing relief to those of us who are worried about Scotland’s economic prospects, Mr Yousaf can cause his opponents a problem. Labour is a happy party today. That’s understandable; finding joy in your opponents’ sorrow is part of the rough and tumble of politics. But, in the longer term, Labour should watch its back. Anas Sarwar has planted his tank on the SNP’s old lawn, in the political and economic centre-ground. The last thing he needs is the SNP trying to move back in.

Politicians all experience chaos at one time or another. Not all extract opportunity. But it’s Humza Yousaf 2.0 or bust, now. Focus on the economy. No more vanity tax rises; more encouragement of wealth creation and a broadening of the tax base. Focus on building infrastructure. We know how far behind Scotland is on road and rail and we expect better than "no money, climate crisis" in response. Focus on vision. We are adults, we all know the health service is broken and we want to know your plans. And, for goodness sake, no more nonsense policy, far removed from the priorities of the people.

Risky? Sure. But Humza Yousaf’s biggest risk, is not taking a big risk.