Brian Taylor: Stand by for UK political change – from Wales

Yes, Wales is occasionally cited at Holyrood, but generally only to permit Humza Yousaf to claim that Labour’s stewardship of the principality falls somewhat short, by comparison with Scotland.

Such remarks customarily generate groans from opposition parties – with attendant suggestions that Mr Yousaf might usefully focus upon Scotland.

But Welsh matters merit closer attention. Right now, two candidates are vying to become the new Labour leader in Wales – and hence the new First Minister.

Vaughan Gething is currently the economy minister. Jeremy Miles has the education remit.

The Senedd in Cardiff (Image: free)

There appears to be relatively little which divides them in policy and strategy terms although that could derive from what one Cardiff source characterised as “the collegiate, consensual world of Welsh politics”.

Nevertheless, there are some big Welsh issues to contemplate in this most turbulent of political periods.

Both candidates want a review of the Barnett Formula which governs the allocation of funds from the Treasury to the devolved administrations. If enacted, that could be to Scotland’s detriment.

Both candidates want enhanced powers for the Senedd in Cardiff. In particular, they want control of justice and policing to be devolved from Whitehall to Wales. A key aspect, of course, of the devolution settlement in Scotland.

If pursued, that could lead, eventually, to a wider scrutiny of devolved powers across these islands – with, perhaps, revived discussion of the settlement for English regions.

Further, both candidates stress their determination to entrench support for Labour in Wales. Understandable, but could it affect intergovernmental relationships after the coming UK General Election?

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Mark Drakeford, the departing Welsh FM, explicitly anticipated that factor when he announced at the end of last year that he was standing down after five years in office.

He said it would be helpful to have a new leader in place to help fight that UK-wide contest. And he added: “I think it is better, in Wales, that people know the person who will look to work alongside Keir Starmer.”

In short, he was forecasting a Labour incumbent in Downing Street. In which, he is not alone. But he was also suggesting that there would be a close and comradely relationship between Cardiff and London.

No surprise there, you will say. But it would alter the balance of power by comparison with the current situation where Edinburgh and Cardiff have frequently worked in harmony to challenge London Conservative governance.

A senior Holyrood source told me there had been a good and durable relationship with Mark Drakeford which was replicated in key portfolios such as finance.

It was pointed out to me that analysis of UK Budget options, offered by Cardiff and Edinburgh, ran in tandem to a significant degree.

And it was further suggested that there was the prospect of enhancing the voice of devolution overall, now that Northern Ireland governance was back up and running.

But will the new Welsh FM want to join in? Or would the new incumbent in Cardiff look to Downing Street instead, building upon declared party loyalties rather than the devolved power structure?

All of which, of course, presumes a Labour victory at that UK General Election.

You might tell me that the result in Rochdale weakens Labour’s prospect of UK-wide victory.

Congratulations are certainly due to George Galloway on his remarkable victory in the Rochdale by-election. Mr Galloway, well known to Scots, said his triumph was “for Gaza”.

This outcome will undoubtedly merit close inspection by Team Starmer. Labour withdrew support for its own candidate because of remarks deemed by many to be antisemitic.

George Galloway (Image: free)

The result will add to the pressure upon Labour to modify – or perhaps clarify – its stance on the Israel/Hamas conflict.

But this was a distinctive by-election, in distinctive circumstances, with a turnout of 39.7%, substantially below General Election levels. Sir Keir would hope to avoid repetition, in Rochdale or elsewhere.

You might also point to the latest poll suggesting a revived lead for the SNP over Labour in Scotland. Again, well worth noting. However, a Labour UK victory does not depend, predominantly, upon Scottish votes – as the SNP have argued themselves.

I would suggest, therefore, that the most likely outcome in the UK election is still Sir Keir Starmer installed in Downing Street, perhaps with a little help, if necessary, from the Liberal Democrats.

Which brings me back to Wales – and power balances. Over the decades, I have paid close, if sporadic, attention to Welsh politics.

I recall that, in September 1997, the referendum on devolution to Wales was deliberately held one week after the Scottish plebiscite.

The belief was that the more sceptical Welsh electorate might be encouraged to vote Yes if they had a positive vote in Scotland to emulate.

And so it proved. Just. I was in Cardiff on the night of the Welsh ballot. The vote seemed destined for No – until the boxes at the very last count tipped the balance in favour of Yes.

So there was a Scottish link from the outset. But a very different polity. Far greater emphasis, for example, on the Welsh language than is the case with Gaelic.

And more. Unlike Scotland, Wales voted to leave the EU.

Labour took exactly half the Senedd seats in 2021 and governs through a co-operation agreement with Plaid Cymru, who came third, behind the Tories.

That deal did not prevent Plaid from condemning the “opportunities squandered” by Mark Drakeford, such as “longer waiting lists, falling educational standards and a stagnant economy”. A familiar mantra?

Other differences. The Greens hold no seats in the Senedd. UKIP had seven seats there but lost them all in 2021.

So politics in Wales is decidedly different – even although Whitehall still tends to view devolution through the prism of an overall UK governance structure.

The new Welsh leader will be declared in a fortnight’s time. Further changes to that UK structure may take a little longer.