It would appear to be a common presumption that Labour will form the next UK Government. Perhaps that influenced the Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle.
The House tends to operate on a binary basis: His Majesty’s Government and the Loyal Opposition.
Think Gilbert and Sullivan – “either a little Liberal or else a little Conservative” – and update.
The Commons rules or conventions are not well fitted to a multi-party approach.
I believe Sir Lindsay when he says he was trying to accommodate a range of views in allowing Labour, in Opposition, to amend a Gaza motion tabled by the SNP.
But, with a government perspective also on the table, that ran counter to convention. It was wrong – as the Speaker has acknowledged. In effect, it cut out the SNP. And it got Labour off a sharp, rusty hook – as they were able to back their own modified wording.
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Was the Speaker intimidated? Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer says emphatically not. He had simply “urged” the Speaker to permit a range of options.
Others are less sanguine. The Leader of the House, Penny Mordaunt, castigated Labour. And I have seldom seen the SNP’s Stephen Flynn more angry than when he declared his party had no confidence in the Speaker.
Be clear about one thing. This controversy over Commons protocol will have precisely zero impact on Israel, Hamas and global opinion.
It is nevertheless right that the issue is discussed in the Commons. I hear Sir Lindsay when he says that, in essaying a broad debate, he was seeking to protect MPs from caustic external threats.
However, no amount of linguistic manoeuvring was ever likely to calm the atmosphere in this most divisive of topics.
Two consequences potentially arise. Firstly, the House will consider its rules – and the Speaker’s role.
Secondly, our parties will now examine what is left of mutual trust. Perhaps, notably, the SNP and Labour.
Right now, with a UK election pending, the SNP, Scotland’s lead party, are engaged in an acerbic battle with a rising Labour Party, intent on regaining their Scottish clout.
This fundamental battle will surface in a multitude of ways. This week, in Holyrood, the First Minister Humza Yousaf and Labour’s Anas Sarwar squabbled over tax and oil jobs.
At one point, they both declared that they would relish a head-to-head contest in Aberdeen over the future of the oil industry. I think they meant verbal.
But there is another small matter to bear in mind. Beyond that election. If Labour do form the next UK Government, how would they work with the Scottish Government, headed by the SNP?
What chance of any trust – when those two are such entrenched foes? An enmity which this week has only enhanced. How might Labour act? And the SNP respond?
I attended Scottish Labour’s conference in Glasgow last weekend – and heard promises on reserved matters such as foreign affairs running side by side with promises on devolved issues such as the health service.
To be clear, the SNP would still be the Scottish Government – even if Labour were to win every single Scottish seat at Westminster. (For the avoidance of doubt, that is not a forecast.) One senior Labour source insisted they grasped the concept. In power, they would, say, outline Scottish consequentials of UK spending on health. They would then challenge the SNP to respond, offering to act themselves in the longer term if they took devolved power too.
In short, a staggered, multi-layered strategy, embracing both Westminster and Holyrood.
But how would the relationship work on a day-to-day basis? Enter the Office of the Secretary of State for Scotland. A department of the UK Government.
I know, I know, not much in your thoughts. Its own billing says it promotes “the best interests of Scotland within a stronger United Kingdom”.
Created after devolution, its early years were quiet. Helen Liddell, one office holder, told the Commons Scottish Select Committee this week that she had it fairly easy because her party, Labour, were in power at Holyrood.
The Scotland Office played a role in enabling the Edinburgh Agreement which led to the 2014 independence referendum.
Alex Salmond told the committee of relatively effective relations with David Cameron.
Under Tony Blair’s government, the Scotland Office seemed sporadically unloved. Merger with Wales and Northern Ireland was suggested but never implemented.
Much more recently, it has gained a new role, particularly with Alister Jack as Scottish Secretary. He it was who vetoed Holyrood’s Gender Recognition Reform legislation and blocked a recycling scheme.
This is muscular Unionism. A challenge to the SNP. And a reversal of the sense that Whitehall devolved power to Scotland – and then forgot about it.
And Labour? Ian Murray was the only Labour MP elected from Scotland at the last UK General Election. But he is Shadow Scottish Secretary. That dualistic Commons again.
He sees a key and revived role for the Scotland Office. It would be “the delivery arm of the UK Labour Government in Scotland”.
And also Scotland’s “window to the world”. He promises personally to evangelise “Brand Scotland” to the globe. Salmon, whisky, the lot.
And are SNP Ministers agog at this prospect? Unaccountably, they are not. They say they are quite happy to market Scotland internationally – if only there were fewer Whitehall obstacles in their path.
Mr Murray, however, is undeterred. He says Labour – including Sir Keir Starmer – is intent on “resetting the relationship” between London and Edinburgh.
Still, standpoint matters. Glance at the impressive building just off the Royal Mile in Edinburgh which the Scotland Office shares with other UK departments such as HMRC and the Treasury.
Do you see a prominent UK Government presence in Scotland’s capital – and think: quite right? Or do you agree with those Nationalists who, mischievously, call it “the British Embassy”?
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And what trust is possible when the SNP says Labour in power would neglect Scottish interests – and Labour believes every SNP action is aimed at ending the Union?
All officials, devolved or reserved, remain part of the UK civil service. And Ministers, even bitter rivals, tend to co-operate somehow, when necessary.
But trust, limited now, would remain so. And this week makes that worse.
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